WNBA Enters Second Half of Season: Analysis and Outlook
The WNBA begins the second half of its schedule this Tuesday, with three teams emerging as the main contenders for the championship: Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, and Phoenix Mercury. In addition to the action on the court, the league faces important decisions off it. The biggest question mark at the league level is whether the WNBA and the players’ association can reach a collective bargaining agreement this year, or at least before January. With the expansion draft for the Portland and Toronto teams, and a massive free agency in 2026, it is crucial to have an agreement as soon as possible. The players have highlighted labor negotiations, discussing the collective bargaining agreement in each meeting with the media and wearing t-shirts with the slogan “Pay Us What You Owe Us” at Saturday’s All-Star Game. Although the players seem focused on gaining public support, this may not influence how the WNBA and its owners approach the negotiations. So far, the conversations have followed their normal course, with neither side revealing all their cards. A follow-up on progress is expected during the summer and fall. After the All-Star break, each team faces specific challenges. Here’s an analysis of the most important ones at the start of the second half of the season:1. Minnesota Lynx (20-4)
Upcoming matches: vs. CHI (July 22), vs. LV (July 25), vs. ATL (July 27)Will the Lynx’s offense be able to keep up the pace to fight for the championship? With the second-best scoring average in the WNBA (84.7 PPG) and limiting their opponents to 75 PPG, both their offense and defense are very consistent. However, coach Cheryl Reeve could be concerned about the vulnerability of the offense, especially if rivals focus on stopping Napheesa Collier, the MVP favorite.
2. New York Liberty (15-6)
Upcoming matches: vs. IND (July 22), vs. PHO (July 25), vs. LA (July 26), @DAL (July 28)Will the Liberty be able to surpass the Lynx to get first place? The two teams still have the four regular season matchups pending, starting July 30 in Minnesota.
The Monday brought good news for the current champions: the return of center Jonquel Jones is expected for Tuesday’s game against Indiana, and Belgian forward Emma Meesseman will join the team. New York could have the most formidable frontcourt in the league.3. Phoenix Mercury (15-7)
Upcoming matches: vs. ATL (July 23), @ NY (July 25), @ WAS (July 27) Will Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper return strongly after their injuries? Sabally has played in 18 of the Mercury’s 22 games, while Copper has only played in six. Despite this, Phoenix remains in third place, led by All-Star Alyssa Thomas. Although Thomas is used to carrying the team’s weight, the Mercury need Sabally and Copper to aim for the championship.4. Indiana Fever (12-11)
Upcoming matches: @ NY (July 22), vs. LV (July 24), @ CHI (July 27)How much will Caitlin Clark be able to play in the second half of the season? Clark has been ruled out for Tuesday, marking the eleventh regular season game she has missed this year. She also missed the Commissioner’s Cup final on July 1st and the All-Star Game. With only 23 years old and many years ahead, if her groin injury requires prolonged rest, the team may take a conservative approach.
5. Seattle Storm (14-9)
Upcoming matches: vs. DAL (July 22), @ CHI (July 25), @ WAS (July 26), @ CON (July 28)Will forward Ezi Magbegor be able to contribute more offensively? With an average of 8.1 PPG, she is at her lowest average in the last four seasons. Since joining the WNBA in 2020, she had never finished a season with a field goal percentage below 50%; she is currently at 49.0%. Improving her offensive ability could be key for the team.
6. Washington Mystics (11-11)
Upcoming matches: vs LA (July 22), vs. SEA (July 26), vs. PHO (July 27)Will rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen be able to perform well in the second half of the season? Both were All-Stars and have been fundamental to the Mystics’ game plan, but they have played since the beginning of last college season without much rest. WNBA rookies must deal with the fatigue that can be experienced in the second part of the season.
7. Atlanta Dream (13-9)
Upcoming games: @ LV (July 22), @ PHO (July 23), @ MIN (July 27)Will Rhyne Howard be as effective upon her return? She has had a great season, leading the Dream in assists (4.5 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG), and being second in scoring (16.5 PPG). However, no timeline was set for her return when she was injured (knee) in the loss to Indiana on July 11. She will miss the rest of the month.
8. Las Vegas Aces (11-11)
Upcoming matches: vs. ATL (July 22), @ IND (July 24), @ MIN (July 25), @ DAL (July 27)Will forward NaLyssa Smith take pressure off A’ja Wilson inside the paint? The starting trio of point guards consisting of Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd hasn’t been as productive as Young, Gray, and Kelsey Plum from 2021 to 2024. Wilson, who is competing for a fourth MVP award, could benefit from more inside help. The Aces signed Smith in late June and would benefit if she improves her scoring average of 6.8 PPG.
9. Golden State Valkyries (10-12)
Upcoming matches: vs. DAL (July 25), @ CON (July 27)Will the Golden State be able to get out of their July slump? The Valkyries had a good June with a 7-4 record, but have struggled since then: 1-5 in July, and their schedule won’t help, with five of their next six games away from home.
10. Los Angeles Sparks (8-14)
Upcoming matches: @ WAS (July 22), @ CON (July 24), @ NY (July 26)Will Cameron Brink play before the season ends? The No. 2 pick of the 2024 draft was making an impact as a rookie until her season was cut short by a knee injury she suffered last June. With Kelsey Plum (20.1), Dearica Hamby (17.2), Azura Stevens (14.7), and Rickea Jackson (13.1) averaging double figures in scoring, the Sparks have a good core, but Brink’s return could help them reach the playoffs.
11. Chicago Sky (7-15)
Upcoming matches: @ MIN (July 22), vs. SEA (July 24), vs. IND (July 27) Will Angel Reese be able to maintain her offensive streak? She averages 14.0 points this season, but in eight games since June 24, that mark rises to 19.1 PPG. She has also shot over 50% in five of those games.12. Dallas Wings (6-17)
Upcoming matches: @ SEA (July 22), @ GS (July 25), vs. LV (July 27), vs. NY (July 28)How much can the rookie point guards progress? Paige Bueckers, Aziaha James, and JJ Quinerly have been the best of the Wings’ disappointing campaign. Some of the veterans are unlikely to return to Dallas next season, but this trio of point guards will. Their energy and effort can be the foundation of a new Wings team in 2026. Their performance for the rest of the season will help determine it.
13. Connecticut Sun (3-19)
Upcoming matches: vs. LA (July 24), vs. GS (July 27), vs. SEA (July 28)Will the Sun generate any momentum for 2026? It’s been a very difficult season for Connecticut, which lost its five starters from 2024 along with coach Stephanie White. It’s hard to qualify this as a rebuilding year; it’s more of a “just get through it” year with the hope that there are ways to improve for next season. But right now, the Sun are on pace to win only five games, as they only have one win in May, June, and July.
