The landscape of the 2025 MLB season presents some constants and surprises. The [Los Angeles Dodgers](/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers) maintain an outstanding performance, while [Aaron Judge](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33192/aaron-judge) continues his MVP-caliber season. Likewise, [Paul Skenes](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/4719507/paul-skenes) continues to establish himself as one of the most dominant pitchers.However, surprises are also the order of the day. The [Baltimore Orioles](/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles) and the [Atlanta Braves](/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves) have had disappointing campaigns, placing them at the bottom of their respective leagues. [Juan Soto](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/36969/juan-soto) had a slow start with the [New York Mets](/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets) before bouncing back and maintaining momentum until the All-Star break. The [Colorado Rockies](/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies), for their part, could break the record for most losses in a season, set by the [Chicago White Sox](/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-sox) last season.The second half promises more excitement, with a close fight for the best record between the Dodgers, the [Detroit Tigers](/mlb/team/_/name/det/detroit-tigers), and the [Chicago Cubs](/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs). Several divisions are also very contested, such as the NL Central, where the Cubs lead by one game over the [Milwaukee Brewers](/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers), and the NL East, where the Mets are half a game behind the [Philadelphia Phillies](/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies). The [Toronto Blue Jays](/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays), after an impressive streak, lead the [New York Yankees](/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees) by two games. The wild card races could be defined at the last gasp, with several teams in the American League and the National League very close to the final positions.
How will these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the final stretch? What goals do the teams have? We analyze the 30 teams in six tiers based on their playoff potential, with MLB experts to offer an insight into what remains of the season for each team. Also included are win-loss projections, as well as division, playoff, and championship title odds for the 30 teams.
The projections are based on Monte Carlo-style simulations of 10,000 scenarios of the remaining schedule, using each team’s power ratings as a basis for the simulated results. These ratings are determined by the season’s results to date and estimates based on the forecast of the squad’s strength.Note: Teams are ordered from best to worst based on their playoff probabilities within their respective tiers.LEVEL 1: THE SIX GREATS
[Detroit Tigers](/mlb/team/_/name/det/detroit-tigers)
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded thanks to a powerful offense and a dynamic starting pitching. [Riley Greene](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/42179/riley-greene) leads the offense, while [Tarik Skubal](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/42409/tarik-skubal) is proving to be a strong contender for the Cy Young award. They have counted on the good performance of [Javier Báez](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/32127/javier-baez), [Spencer Torkelson](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/4424286/spencer-torkelson), [Gleyber Torres](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33804/gleyber-torres), [Casey Mize](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/41167/casey-mize) and other players on the roster.What to expect: The Tigers will look to reinforce their roster, especially the pitching staff, with the injury of Jackson Jobe and the possible absence of Alex Cobb. They need more depth in the bullpen to perform well in the playoffs. – Doolittle[Los Angeles Dodgers](/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers)
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%How they got to the top: Recovering their starters. The Dodgers lead the NL, despite few starts from [Blake Snell](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33748/blake-snell) and [Tyler Glasnow](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33190/tyler-glasnow). With the return of Glasnow and the possible return of Snell and [Shohei Ohtani](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/39832/shohei-ohtani) pitching again, the Dodgers could raise their level. They have relied on a deep offense and several pitchers who have taken on important roles.What to expect: The Dodgers need to cover third base and improve the performance of [Freddie Freeman](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman) and [Mookie Betts](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/33039/mookie-betts). They could also look for a reinforcement in left field. – Gonzalez[Chicago Cubs](/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs)
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense. The Cubs are one of the few teams that haven’t been swept in a series of three or more games. They excel in slugging and stolen bases. A top-notch defense and a revamped bullpen have also contributed.
What to expect: The Cubs should continue to score runs. Management will look for a starter, a reliever, and help at third base. Although they are not favorites against the Phillies or Dodgers, they have proven to be very dangerous in the NL. – Rogers
[Houston Astros](/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros)
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%How they got to the top: The Astros are looking for their ninth consecutive season in the playoffs. Despite the changes in the roster, the Astros remain a top team thanks to their excellent effectiveness.What to expect: The Astros are used to competing. The reintegration of Alvarez and stability in the rotation are key. They expect to play baseball in October. – Karabell[Philadelphia Phillies](/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies)
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%How they got to the top: Their starting pitching staff has been magnificent. Led by [Zack Wheeler](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/31267/zack-wheeler), [Cristopher Sanchez](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/42359/cristopher-sanchez) and [Ranger Suárez](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/39817/ranger-suarez) have been just as good.What to expect: The Phillies are focused on October. They need to stay healthy and reinforce the bullpen before the trade deadline. – Rogers
[New York Mets](/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets)
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%How they got to the top: With a promising start, followed by pitching problems and a recovery before the All-Star break.
What to expect: The Mets are expecting the return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea. They need to reinforce the bullpen and Juan Soto’s offense has improved significantly. – Castillo
LEVEL 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
[New York Yankees](/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees)
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70Division Title Odds: 58.7% | Playoff Odds: 93.3% | Championship Odds: 13.0%How to get to the top: They need reinforcements in the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the infield. The return of [Luis Gil](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/40626/luis-gil) and the debut of [Cam Schlittler](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/5134581/cam-schlittler) are promising.What to expect: Brian Cashman will look to improve the team before the trade deadline. If they acquire the right players, the Yankees could win the AL East and return to the World Series. – Castillo[Milwaukee Brewers](/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers)
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%How to get to the top: The Brewers have had a successful season with young talent.What to expect: The offense is balanced and the team’s defense is top-notch. The rotation is dynamic and deep. – Doolittle
[Toronto Blue Jays](/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays)
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%How to get to the top: Maintaining good performance since June 26. The offense needs to rely on hitting for average.What to expect: They’ve had success in closed games. The bullpen has improved. They look like a playoff team. – Schoenfield
LEVEL 3: FIRMLY IN THE FIGHT
[Seattle Mariners](/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners)
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%What makes them contenders: Cal Raleigh’s surprising performance. The Mariners’ offense has been good, especially on the road. They need to improve the starting rotation.What to expect: They expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodríguez could improve his performance. They could look for improvements at third base and add a starting pitcher. – Schoenfield
[Boston Red Sox](/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox)
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%What makes them contenders: They have performed well after Rafael Devers’ departure, thanks to their young hitters. The emergence of Ceddanne Rafaela has been surprising.
What to expect: They need help in pitching. If they reinforce themselves, they could reach the top of the AL East. – Castillo[Tampa Bay Rays](/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays)
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%What makes them contenders: Kevin Cash has achieved great results from his players. The rotation has been consistent.
