NFC North: Who has the most to prove? Key rookies and title favorites

The North Division of the National Conference (NFC North) established itself as one of the most competitive in the NFL last season, recording the best winning percentage (.662) since 2002, when the divisions were restructured to four teams per conference. However, the success was cut short in the playoffs, with the three NFC North teams being eliminated in their first game.This disillusionment gave way to an active offseason, marked by the hiring of Ben Johnson, former offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, as head coach of the Chicago Bears. New players were added, extensive contracts were signed, and there was an unexpected retirement.We thoroughly analyze this division, which is expected to maintain its strength, with reports from Courtney Cronin (Bears), Rob Demovsky (Packers), Kevin Seifert (Vikings), and Eric Woodyard (Lions). According to ESPN Analytics, the NFC North is the only division where all four teams have at least a 35% chance of making the playoffs.Regarding favorites, ESPN BET predicts the Lions will win for the third consecutive time, followed by the Packers, Bears, and Vikings.

Which quarterback has the most to prove?Cronin: Jordan Love. The Packers gave Love a $220 million contract ($55 million annually) last July, after a standout second half of the season in his first year as a starter in 2023. That salary demands better and more consistent performance from a quarterback entering his sixth season in the NFL (third as a starter), and it’s problematic that the same concerns about his game keep coming up. It’s difficult to assess how much of that was due to injuries (he missed two full games) versus a regression in 2024, but with the same offense, the same coach, and improved offensive weapons, Love has no more excuses. The playoffs are the expectation in Green Bay.Demovsky: J.J. McCarthy. The national narrative has been that Love regressed in his second year as a starter, something that both Love and Packers coach Matt LaFleur have denied this offseason, but he’s probably No. 3 on the list of NFC North quarterbacks who need to prove themselves, behind McCarthy and Caleb Williams of the Bears. It seems the expectation is that the coaching change in Chicago means Williams will flip the switch, but the reality is that there’s a grace period with a new coach, so you have to give him time. But McCarthy should be at the top of this list because the Vikings have been, and are expected to continue to be, a playoff team despite turning to a quarterback who hasn’t yet played an NFL game.Seifert: Williams. It’s been incredible to see so much national optimism about McCarthy, who hasn’t even participated in a regular season practice, let alone play in a regular season game. But unlike Williams, McCarthy doesn’t have the perception of a rookie season deficit to overcome. Williams underperformed in 2024, and the Bears were aggressive in giving him a better roster and training infrastructure. It’s time to find out if he can be a transcendent player.Woodyard: Jared Goff. After a historic 2024 regular season, during which he reached career highs in touchdowns (37) and QBR (68.4), it all ended in disappointment with a surprising loss to the Washington Commanders in the NFC divisional round. Goff was responsible for four of the team’s five turnovers in that game, including three interceptions and a lost fumble. So, the question remains: Can Goff help the team win a Super Bowl? He still hasn’t proven it despite all his individual success.

Which office won the offseason?Cronin: Bears. Chicago transformed its biggest weakness, the offensive line, into a strength by acquiring center Drew Dalman and guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson through trades. But the Bears’ front office won the offseason when it got the most coveted coach of this cycle, Johnson. The key to making everything work in Chicago lies in a complete overhaul of philosophy and culture, which begins at the top. The change was reflected in sparing no expense ($13 million per year) to hire the coach they believe will finally turn this team into a contender. But Chicago has already won the offseason before, now it needs that to materialize.Demovsky: Bears. It has to be the Bears, but then again, they seem to have won offseasons before and it hasn’t meant much. But the Bears not only got the most popular coaching candidate on the market, but they did so by weakening a division rival by stripping the Lions of their promising offensive coordinator.Seifert: Vikings. Minnesota surrounded McCarthy with one of the most experienced rosters in the league, courtesy of a $341 million spend for 2025, according to Roster Management System. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah elevated multiple areas of weakness by acquiring three new starters for the offensive line and two for the defensive line, along with a skilled number 2 running back in Jordan Mason. Although some of the new veterans have recent injury histories, there are few holes in the presumed starting lineup.Woodyard: Bears. Chicago has added one of the league’s most creative minds in Johnson. He knows what he’s doing, and the players will respect him immediately. Johnson should be able to bring out the best in Williams, as he did to help fuel the resurgence of Goff’s career. Chicago also surrounded Williams with talent across the board, which should help them take a big leap in 2025.Which key assistant coach is most likely to be in the 2026 head coaching cycle?Cronin: Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. If the Vikings’ defense performs as well as it did in 2024 (tied for first in turnovers, second in EPA/play, fifth in points allowed), expect Flores’ name to circulate again in the head coaching cycle. Flores interviewed for three jobs last year (Bears, Jets, Jaguars) and has already been a head coach before with the Dolphins. It remains to be seen if teams have the desire to hire Flores with his ongoing lawsuit against the NFL and the public consequences of his relationship with Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (especially teams that have young quarterbacks or are looking to draft one).Demovsky: Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. He has already been a head coach, albeit at the college level. He resigned from the Boston College job to return to the NFL last season, and his impact in Green Bay was immediate. The Packers’ often unstable run defense allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, their highest ranking in 15 years, and was also in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, yards allowed, and takeaways. He already interviewed for at least one NFL head coaching position when the Jets brought him in this offseason.Seifert: Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. Strange as it may seem, the 2024 season was McCown’s first full season as an NFL assistant coach. He chose not to interview for offensive coordinator positions, but still got an interview for the New York Jets head coaching job. McCown has long been on the league’s radar, having been interviewed for the Houston Texans’ head job in 2022, and if McCarthy performs well in 2025, McCown could skip the coordinator level altogether.Woodyard: Lions assistant head coach/receivers coach Scottie Montgomery. Detroit’s coaching staff has been decimated since last season, and Montgomery is shifting from coaching running backs to wide receivers. He has said his ultimate goal is to become an NFL head coach, and he has worked hard. Over the past two seasons, Montgomery’s leadership has played a key role in turning the Lions’ ground attack into one of the most prolific in league history, with running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery becoming the first pair to each run for at least 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons in 2023 and 2024. That’s no small feat, and if he can continue that production with the wide receivers, he could certainly be in the next head coaching cycle as a name to watch.

Who will be the best rookie in the NFC North?Cronin: Bears tight end Colston Loveland. Teams don’t draft tight ends in the top 10 without expecting them to have an immediate impact. With Johnson taking the reins, Loveland could be the type of weapon that Sam LaPorta was for the Lions as a rookie (10 touchdowns). Chicago’s other tight end, Cole Kmet, said the Bears want to be the best team with 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) in the NFL. Securing the best tight end in the draft is one way to ensure that goal becomes a reality, and the outlet Loveland will provide to Williams in the passing game is critical for the quarterback to make a leap in his second season.Demovsky: Packers receiver Matthew Golden. When you’re the first receiver your team has drafted in Round 1 since 2002, you better prove you were worth it. And Golden has the opportunity to do just that. The receiver drafted at number 23 by the Packers should get a lot of playing time right away, especially considering that receiver Christian Watson’s knee injury will keep him out at the start of the season. As soon as Golden arrived at the Packers’ offseason program, he seemed to fit in immediately with Love.Seifert: Loveland. The Bears still have Kmet on the roster, so Loveland’s immediate impact could be limited. But by the end of the season, one way or another, Loveland will have become a force in Johnson’s offense, as LaPorta did for the Lions in 2023. Loveland will be too good to keep off the field, and he will be an important option for Williams.Woodyard: Loveland. It reminds me of LaPorta, and we all saw how that worked for Detroit in his rookie season, when he set an NFL rookie tight end record with 86 receptions with Johnson as his OC.Name a little-known player or unit that will impact the division title.Cronin: The Vikings’ offensive line. Nobody really knows how well McCarthy will do under pressure until we see how he handles the pressure of the NFL, so the Vikings went out and signed a new center (Ryan Kelly) and right guard (Will Fries), and used their first-round pick on left guard Donovan Jackson. An improved unit around McCarthy in his first season bodes well for the success of the Vikings’ offense.Demovsky: The Bears’ offensive line. Chicago had to do something to help Williams, who was sacked a league-record 68 times last season. The Bears should have three new starters on the line with the additions of Thuney, Jackson, and Dalman. This could give Williams the opportunity to prove why he was the first overall pick in the 2024 draft.Seifert: Whoever starts at center for the Lions. Frank Ragnow’s retirement left the team without one of the key gears in their playoff run in the last two seasons, and there is no obvious successor. But whether it’s veteran Graham Glasgow, second-round pick Tate Ratledge, or someone else, Ragnow’s replacement will be a key point of leverage for the Lions’ chances of winning the division for a third consecutive year.Woodyard: Ratledge. Ragnow was one of the two NFL centers selected for the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons, and his retirement puts a great burden on everyone else. But Ratledge could be ready to contribute immediately. In fact, Ratledge was taking first-team reps at center during the last day of the Lions’ offseason program, although several players were limited or absent. Anyway, Ratledge is earning the respect of his teammates and coaching staff with his professionalism after an All-America career at Georgia.