The Sony Open in Hawai’i kicks off the 2026 PGA season at Waialae Country Club, a course that rewards precision, iron play, and patience over power. We are looking for players who excel in the approach, avoid mistakes, and accumulate birdie opportunities without forcing the game. The golf season is long, so the selection of bets must be careful. Protect your bankroll and remember that the NFL playoffs and the college football championship also deserve your attention.
Analysis of Featured Players
Russell Henley: Top 10 (+115)
Although we don’t usually focus on top-10 markets, Henley’s experience in this field makes him an attractive bet. He is the legitimate favorite, leading the field in strokes gained on approach and tee-to-green in the last 32 rounds, key skills in this field.
In Waialae, his results are directly related to his iron play. He has achieved one victory, a second place, a T4, and multiple top-10 finishes, thanks to his consistency in gaining four to six strokes with his irons on this course.Ben Griffin: Top 20 (-130)
Griffin leads the field in bogey avoidance and scrambling, which is crucial at Waialae, where missed greens don’t always mean bogey. Additionally, he is among the top 15 in weighted approach in recent months, demonstrating good performance with the irons.Betting on Griffin is betting on a player who avoids mistakes in a field where patience is rewarded. Although he doesn’t have much history at Waialae, his experience is relevant. In three participations, he has won tee-to-green each time.
Chris Kirk: Top 30 (+100)
Kirk is a suitable bet for this field, backed by consistent results at Waialae. Throughout his career, he has achieved multiple top 10 finishes and a couple of second places. His good performance is based on a solid approach and tee-to-green game.Players to Consider in Fantasy
Keegan Bradley ($9,300): Excels tee-to-green. His irons are elite regardless of the venue, and Waialae rewards consistent play more than creativity. If “Captain” Keegan wins with his approach, fantasy points will accumulate steadily.
Kurt Kitayama ($8,900): A player with great potential. He is volatile, but that volatility is acceptable when it comes from iron play, with a true ability to birdie or better. On a course that doesn’t require distance, his approach game is key.Mac Meissner ($7,500): Although he doesn’t have an elite skill, he is generally solid for fantasy. He has good scrambling and bogey avoidance numbers, and has performed well at Wyndham, with many mid-range results. A win is not sought with Meissner, but four rounds of fair play are assured.Matt McCarty ($7,500): The scrambling is legitimate, the irons are acceptable, and Waialae prevents him from being exposed. McCarty isn’t a high-upside bet, but he can survive on a low salary and allow the rest of the lineup to do the work.
