2025 PGA Championship Analysis
The second major of the year is approaching with the 2025 PGA Championship, which will be played from Thursday to Sunday at Quail Hollow Club. Alofoke Deportes experts analyze the favorites and the bets with the highest value.Expert Predictions
Jon Rahm. He’s regaining his championship form. He tied for 14th at the Masters and eighth at the PGA Championship. He’s starting to remind us that he was the best player on the planet before his departure from LIV.
Matt Barrie
Scottie Scheffler. Oakmont is a monster. The champion will need to be a formidable rival. I’m betting on the man who won three of his last four participations by a total of 17 strokes, because there’s no one more terrifying than Scheffler.
Tory Barron
Scheffler. Scheffler has the Infinity Gauntlet (glove) and all the Infinity Gems. Scottie is inevitable.
Michael Collins
Scheffler. We’ve reached the point with Scheffler that is reminiscent of Tiger Woods, where the cliché of choosing him to win outweighs the desire to think outside the box. Even though Bryson DeChambeau fits well with Oakmont, Scheffler is too good and consistent right now.
Jeff Darlington
Sepp Straka. The current setup at Oakmont feels like a throwback to when the U.S. Open was perpetually tough, putting a great emphasis on fairways and greens. So far this season, Straka has been one of the best players on the circuit in terms of those aspects of the game. He is accurate and confident, having already won twice this year. Furthermore, five of the last six U.S. Open winners were first-time major winners. Look for Straka to join that trend.
Michael Eaves
Scheffler. If it were Scottie versus the field, I’d choose the field, but that’s not how this exercise works. The part of me that thinks nothing so obvious happens wants to choose someone else, the part of me that watches golf is choosing Scottie.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Scheffler. He won three of the last four. At Oakmont you have to hit the irons well, and who is better than Scottie?
Andy North
Scheffler. Yes, I know, it’s not exactly taking a risk, but if the task is to choose the golfer who will lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday, how could I choose another?
Mark Schlabach
Scheffler. Oakmont is possibly the most difficult golf course in the world. It requires amazing precision and accuracy. Scottie is playing with such freedom and precision, and I think that will continue at Oakmont.
Marty Smith
Scheffler. No. 1 in the world, winner of three of his last four events, on one of the most strategically difficult courses in the world: Oakmont!
Curtis Strange
Jon Rahm. I really liked what I saw from Rahm at the PGA Championship. It wasn’t just that he put himself back in contention for a major for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but his game and his desire to compete were working together again to produce some really compelling golf. His game should fit well at Oakmont, and I like his chances of being one of the few players who can challenge Scheffler this week.
Paolo Uggetti
Rahm. Because someone has to pick a different player than Scottie.
Scott Van Pelt
Betting Analysis
Who is your bet to win?
Rory McIlroy (+1200). I trust Rory to solve the problems and regain form in a tournament where he has finished second in each of the last two years.
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Collin Morikawa (+2200). He has the emotional control and analytical mindset that suits Oakmont. If he stays calm and plays his game, Morikawa is quietly in the mix on Sunday, and no one will be surprised.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Jon Rahm (+1200). Rahm has the perfect long game to succeed at Oakmont. He comes to the week in great form, and that bold mojo is back! His T-14 at the Masters and T-8 at the PGA Championship tell me he can do it. Rahm leads LIV in greens in regulation percentage, which is a very important metric on this course.
Anita Marks, betting analyst
What is your favorite bet to finish in the top 10?
Gordon: Xander Schauffele (+210).I’m leaning towards the spectacular history of the tournament over the mediocre form of the season with Schauffele at a price that I don’t think we’ll see for him too often in the future. He has seven top-10 finishes in eight U.S. Open appearances, while T-14 is his worst career result (2022).
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Maldonado: Keegan Bradley (+475)
The game of golf is about trusting your swing. With consecutive top-10 finishes and positive putting, Bradley has the confidence. Bradley is a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly strong around the green. Putting is the most volatile aspect of his game, but Bradley has the ball-striking ceiling that is absolutely high enough to win.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
What is your favorite bet for Scottie Scheffler?
Gordon: Finish the first round in the top 10 (+150).Maldonado: Finish the first round in the top 10 (+150)Scheffler has been in the top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major rounds (91%) since last year. Each of the last four U.S. Open winners, and nine of the last 11, were in the top 10 after 18 holes.
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Third on the circuit in first-round scoring average, Scheffler is more than elite from the start. Separating his strokes gained numbers by round, Scottie is at his best off the tee, with his irons and from tee to green in the opening round of tournaments, gaining an average of 3.98 strokes total, at least 1.5 full strokes better compared to the rest of the three rounds to close. He starts hot, then stays solid the rest of the way.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Who are your favorite value/outsider bets?
Gordon: Cameron Young: (+10000)Maldonado: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500)After a brutal start to the season with four missed cuts in a span of five starts, Young is coming off a T-4 finish at the RBC Canadian Open and finished tied for seventh in Pennsylvania at the Truist Championship three starts prior. He has a lot of experience and success in major championships, with five Top 10s between the 2022 PGA and the 2024 Masters.
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Putting and scrambling are red flags, but his approach and ball-striking floor are massive. With two Top 10s in his last two starts, his form is peaking. He’s a monster off the tee to green right now, second in the field over the last 32 rounds. If you want a guy with winning-level ball-striking at longer odds, he belongs on your card.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Are there any other bets that catch your eye?
Gordon: Parlay to make the cut: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104)
Maldonado: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140)English is in the middle of a career year and has never missed the cut at the U.S. Open in nine career appearances. Fleetwood hasn’t missed a cut this season and hasn’t even been outside the top 40 through 36 holes in his last 11 starts. I feel pretty comfortable putting the two together for this one!
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Tyler Fulghum: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120)The juice is strong, but it may even be undervalued. In 31 starts since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five in 19 of them, including 10 wins. Unlike most markets with a lot of juice, this one has the data to back it up. Scheffler is not volatile, rarely posts a bad round, and even with a cold putter, his ball-striking alone can keep him near the top.
Pamela Maldonado, Betting Analyst
Marks: McIlroy to miss the cut (+290)DJ won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, and that really feels like an eternity. Since his move to LIV in 2022, Johnson hasn’t even come close to contention in a major competition. His best result in 10 major appearances since 2023 is a T-31 at last year’s Open Championship. He has missed the cut five times, including the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.
Tyler Fulghum
Marks: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190)McIlroy hasn’t been the same golfer since he won the Masters. He shot 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open, and didn’t play well at Quail Hollow. His problem with the driver is real, and his iron game hasn’t been stellar. Did he lose his hunger after winning the grand slam? Possibly.
Marks
Marks: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170)Aberg was close to winning the Canadian Open, and I think we get good value here for him to finish in the top 20 with extra money. He drives the ball as well as anyone on the circuit, and his last five rounds have been in the 60s.
Marks
Straka is having a career year: he finished third at the Memorial Tournament and has won twice on the circuit this season. He has the potential to dominate this field with his ball-striking strengths. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth off the tee to green, second in strokes gained: approach, and in the top 10 in driving accuracy.
Marks
