India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Clash in World Cricket

The series between Australia and India transcends the status of a simple sporting encounter. With the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June, this clash takes on even greater relevance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent triumph over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will face a challenge to maintain their position.

India’s Path to Classification

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents a 75% effectiveness. India has two crucial series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four test matches, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all possible points against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to secure its position above New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs to score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: winning five matches or winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw, 10.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to consist of three test matches, will offer 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. Even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.