Evaluating a coach’s performance goes beyond wins and losses; it also involves measuring how expectations are met. Did your team exceed the experts’ predictions? You could be a candidate for Coach of the Year. Did you not meet expectations? Your position could be at risk.
This dynamic also applies to new coaches. Success is not measured solely by the immediate attainment of a championship, but by the ability to get the most out of the squad, exceeding previous expectations.
In Alofoke Deportes, we analyze Elo projections to rank first-year WNBA coaches, evaluating whether they exceed or fall short of the win expectations set by ESPN BET. Furthermore, we highlight key players who are performing above expectations, based on their estimated RAPTOR wins.
Natalie Nakase, Golden State Valkyries
Expected wins before the season: 8.5
Current win projection: 23.9
Difference: +15.4
Pleasant surprises: Veronica Burton (+5.1 wins); Temi Fagbenle (+2.4)
Nakase, the favorite for Coach of the Year, has done an exceptional job with the WNBA’s first expansion team in 17 years. The Valkyries are not only more competitive than expected, but they have already secured a playoff spot, something not seen since 1997.
The Nakase team stands out for its defense, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency and first in the fewest points allowed per game, with the lowest effective field goal percentage in the league (47.2%).Legend: Natalie Nakase won a WNBA championship as an assistant with the Las Vegas Aces in 2022.
Nakase’s achievements include empowering Burton, who has emerged as Golden State’s best player, displaying a remarkable performance on both sides of the court. Seven of the nine veteran players with the most minutes on the team have surpassed their previous performance, demonstrating the quality of Nakase’s work.
Karl Smesko, Atlanta Dream
Expected wins before the season: 21.5
Current win projection: 29.4
Difference: +7.9
Pleasant surprises: Allisha Gray (+2.0 wins); Maya Caldwell (+2.0)
Smesko, former college coach, has led the Dream to compete with teams like the Lynx and Aces, even surpassing the defending champion, Liberty. Atlanta is among the top two teams in offense and defense, with Gray leading the attack.
The Dream has achieved this success despite injuries to two of its best players, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada.
Sydney Johnson, Washington Mystics
Expected wins before the season: 14.5
Current win projection: 17.0
Difference: +2.5
Pleasant surprises: Sonia Citron (+5.3 wins); Sug Sutton (+2.3)
Although the Mystics will not make the playoffs this year, Johnson is on track to exceed expectations, despite having a young team. With an average age of 24.7 years, the team is the youngest in the league.Legend: Sydney Johnson was an assistant for the Chicago Sky in 2024.
Johnson has gotten encouraging performance from his young players, especially Citron, who promises to be one of the best guards in the league.
Lynne Roberts, Los Angeles Sparks
Expected wins before the season: 20.5
Current win projection: 20.7
Difference: +0.2
Pleasant surprises: Azura Stevens (+3.4 wins); Dearica Hamby (+2.7)
The Sparks probably won’t make the playoffs, but they are exceeding initial expectations and showing significant improvements in their game.
Rachid Meziane, Connecticut Sun
Expected wins before the season: 10.5
Current win projection: 10.7
Difference: +0.2
Pleasant surprises: Leila Lacan (+3.3 wins); Saniya Rivers (+2.5)
Despite a difficult season, the young trio of Nelson-Ododa, Rivers, and Lacan is keeping the team above expectations.
Tyler Marsh, Chicago Sky
Expected wins before the season: 18.5
Current win projection: 10.7
Difference: -7.8
Pleasant surprises: Kamilla Cardoso (+0.9 wins); Rachel Banham (+0.3)
The Sky’s season under Marsh has been disappointing, with performance well below expectations. The additions of Vandersloot, Atkins, Allen, and Nurse have not achieved the expected impact.
Initial defeats and overall poor performance have generated frustration within the team.
Chris Koclanes, Dallas Wings
Expected wins before the season: 19.5
Current win projection: 9.7
Difference: -9.8
Pleasant surprises: Paige Bueckers (+5.1 wins); Luisa Geiselsoder (+1.2)
Despite the arrival of new players and the expectation generated by Bueckers, the team has not met expectations, with most of the veterans performing below their previous level.
