Manchester Derby: Crisis at United and City? Analysis and Key Points

The Manchester Classic: Crisis or simple stumble?

How is Manchester United doing at the moment? The situation of the Old Trafford team is somewhat unclear, especially after Rúben Amorim, their coach, mentioned that he plans to stay in the position, although he cannot guarantee his continuity after the international break. The team secured an agonizing 3-2 victory against Burnley thanks to a penalty in the 97th minute by Bruno Fernandes, a triumph that, given the circumstances, could be a turning point. Amorim’s tactics became the object of ridicule after the penalty shootout defeat against Grimsby Town, from the fourth division, in the League Cup. To this was added the defeat in the opening match against an Arsenal that seemed not to try and the 1-1 draw with Fulham, thanks to an own goal by Rodrigo Muniz. In addition, the star signing of 76.5 million euros, Benjamin Sesko, has not yet started in the Premier League. However, if you look at the Premier League table, Manchester United is not the worst team in the city. In fact, they have earned four points in three matches.

What about Manchester City? They’ve lost two out of three matches, something that a potential Premier League champion has only done once in the history of the league.

Rodri, the current Ballon d’Or winner, is back for City and has stated: “I am not Messi. I am not going to come back and simply make the team win and win and win.”

The April encounter between both teams was one of the worst of last season, with a goalless draw in which City didn’t make any shots in the last 20 minutes and neither team generated a single clear chance. Although this Sunday’s match at the Etihad shouldn’t be so uncompetitive, the schedule has found both teams at their lowest point since Abu Dhabi took control of City in 2008.

Therefore, ahead of what could be the worst Manchester derby in recent memory, let’s analyze how we got here and why one side of the city might be closer to turning things around than the other.

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A brief historical review of Manchester City and Manchester United

A graph illustrates the average points per game of both Manchester clubs since 2008. City, after the acquisition by Abu Dhabi, experienced a meteoric rise. After a stagnation with Roberto Mancini, they resurfaced with Manuel Pellegrini, and then declined until the arrival of Pep Guardiola in 2016. From that moment on, the team experienced an immediate improvement, with a decline during the seasons affected by the pandemic and a rebound that led them to win three consecutive titles between 2022 and 2024. However, the problems at the beginning of last season have raised the alarm.

Regarding United, the points-per-game average is the lowest since 2008 and since the Premier League began.

At the beginning of this period, Sir Alex Ferguson was at the peak of his career as a coach. United won the Champions League in 2008 and reached the finals in 2009 and 2011, losing them to the current Manchester City coach. They also won the Premier League in those three seasons, but the 2011 title was achieved with 80 points, the lowest number of points of any champion in this century. This allowed City to steal the title in 2012, only for United to sign a declining Robin van Persie and win another title in Sir Alex’s last season.

After that, progress was not linear. From 2013 to the present, United’s performance per game has gone from being champion-level to below the league average: they are earning one point less per game, or about 40 points, 40!, in a full season. But there have been ups and downs along the way. There was an immediate decline with David Moyes, and then a similar story with the following four managers, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Erik ten Hag: a brief immediate improvement, but a final decline. And that brings us to today, to Manchester United under the management of Ruben Amorim. There has been no improvement, it has gone downhill since day one.

Why is one Manchester club closer to changing the situation than the other?

The article compares Manchester United to the Dallas Cowboys, highlighting the media pressure and excessive expectations placed on both teams, which often leads to erroneous conclusions about their performance. In the case of United, their mediocrity is considered an institutional failure due to inequality in football. If Manchester United does not compete for the Premier League and the Champions League, something has gone very wrong, and it has been that way for more than a decade. The article argues that, due to United’s popularity, public sentiment and conventional wisdom are often wrong about the team. The author, having written on the subject two years ago, predicted that United was not in the running for the Premier League title, and was criticized, but the team lost 7-0 against Liverpool shortly thereafter.

The author suggests that when Manchester United is bad, it’s often not as bad as it seems. The biggest problem for United this season has been variance, which is expected to balance out during the rest of the season.

Despite having generated the most expected goals, they have only scored four actual goals, matching teams like West Ham and Burnley.

Although United is not close to competing for titles and their team-building strategy won’t help, they have already improved six positions in the first three matchdays. The attack seems better than last season. At Manchester City, last season’s problems persist. They conceded 1.2 goals per game and 20 touches inside their own penalty area, figures significantly higher than in the previous seven seasons. New signings, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders, are positive in possession, but negative without the ball. The City has allowed 1.3 goals per game on 1.3 expected goals per game and has conceded 22 touches inside their own penalty area. Their schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult, and it seems they relied on Rodri to solve all their problems, but Rodri himself suggests that was a bad idea. The article concludes that City could recover, but betting and projection systems place their title chances in a distant third place, closer to Chelsea in fourth than to Liverpool and Arsenal at the top. Regarding United, the initial projections were 59 points, but now they have risen to 60. Despite the criticisms, not much has changed.