The NHL preseason is coming to an end, and the regular season is approaching on October 7th. Following the 2023-24 season, significant adjustments in the performance of several players are anticipated. Regression in performance is a key factor to consider. Some key players, such as Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman, and the Vancouver Canucks, experienced a decrease in their performance compared to the previous season. Although this does not rule out a possible recovery, it is crucial to analyze the trends.
Candidates for Regression
Players most likely to experience a 10% or greater drop in their goal or point production are those who deserve the most attention. Shooting percentage is the most influential factor in this regression, as many players exceeded their expected averages. Other factors include changes in player role, team environment, and more challenging matchups.Morgan Geekie
Left Wing, Boston BruinsBefore last season, Morgan Geekie’s highest shooting percentage was 13%. In the 2024-25 season, his shooting percentage was 22%. This, combined with his position on Boston’s top line, resulted in 33 goals, nearly doubling his previous personal best of 17. This figure is unlikely to be repeated.
The increase in Geekie’s goal production, his greater prominence with the Bruins, and the increase in his offensive zone starts suggest that his numbers could decrease. If he continues to play on the top line, his goal total could be between 22 and 26, instead of exceeding 30. Although he will remain an important player for the Bruins, his playing time on the top line will involve tougher matchups, which could reduce his goal production.Mark Scheifele
Center, Winnipeg Jets The 2024-25 season for Scheifele was outstanding, with 39 goals and 87 points. During the seasons in which he scored 38, 39, and 42 goals, his shooting percentage was around 20%, three percentage points above his career average. He also scored more than 10 power-play goals in each of those seasons, suggesting a possible regression. The loss of Nikolaj Ehlers on the first power-play unit could affect a team that had the best success percentage in the NHL. A decrease in power-play success, combined with an expected regression in shooting percentage, could lead Scheifele to score around 30 goals and 77 points. Although this still represents a top-level production, a drop of more than 10% and almost 25% in goal scoring would be a setback after an exceptional season.Aliaksei Protas
Left Wing, Washington Capitals Several Capitals players had notable statistical seasons in 2024-2025, and Protas was one of them. The 6-6, 247-pound forward had a breakout season, doubling his point total from the previous season and scoring 30 goals, after a previous personal best of six. His shooting percentage, which was previously 8.8%, rose to 21.1%. If Protas is a consistent shooter with 11-12%, a production of around 20 goals would be more likely, 33% less than his mark from last season. In addition, he did not score any goals on power plays, and it is unlikely that he will get many shooting opportunities on the power play, especially with Ovechkin on the team. Protas is expected to face tougher matchups as teams will be more aware of his scoring ability. He is more likely to be a 55-60 point power forward than a 65+ point player.Brandon Hagel
Left Wing, Tampa Bay Lightning Hagel had a great performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, despite having three consecutive seasons of quality offensive production in Tampa Bay. He is a threat to the Lightning and scored seven points in penalty situations last season. Although Hagel is one of the most dangerous players on the penalty kill, it is unlikely that he will repeat his offensive performance in shorthanded situations. Hagel is likely to play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli. While he is likely to stay close to a point-per-game pace, Hagel is unlikely to reach 90 points playing in that role, without significant time on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His true talent is more indicative of a 75-80 point player, which is elite for a second-line player, but a drop of almost 15% in production should be expected.Mark Stone
Right Wing, Vegas Golden Knights One of the best two-way wingers in the NHL has several factors working against him this season. Stone has played more than 60 games only three times in the last 10 seasons. In addition, he has lost his place alongside Jack Eichel due to the arrival of Mitch Marner to the Golden Knights. Although Stone should still have opportunities on the first power play unit. The regression is due to his injury history, a diminished role on the second line, and the difference between Eichel and William Karlsson. A 10% drop in offensive production at even strength is expected. If Stone stays healthy and plays 82 games for the first time in his career, 68 points are projected.Matt Duchene
Center, Dallas Stars Duchene is expected to be the third-line center for the Stars this season. Although he will still get power-play time, his role on the third line will limit his ice time and opportunities to create offense. Duchene had a 19.7% shooting percentage last season, the second-highest of his career. Given that age is not on his side, it would not be surprising to see his production fall by more than 20%, regardless of playing time. An excellent figure of 21 goals and 40 assists is projected, but a drop from the point-per-game season he had in 2024-2025.
