The NHL Free Agent Market in 2025: Opportunity or Trap?
The NHL’s 2025 offseason is shaping up to be a crucial period, with a limited pool of high-end free agents and a significant increase in the salary cap. This could make Brian Burke’s famous quote, “the biggest mistakes are made on July 1st,” more relevant than ever.
The free agent generating the most expectation is Mitch Marner. However, the difference in quality compared to other outstanding players is noticeable. Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad complete the list of coveted players, although with a lower value than Marner.
The situation contrasts with that of July 2026, when players of the caliber of Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and John Carlson could be available. Although some might extend their contracts with their current teams, the list of players potentially available in a year should make general managers reconsider signing excessive contracts on July 1, 2025.
The scarcity of valuable players in 2025 increases the likelihood of overpayments in contracts. To win the Stanley Cup, teams need their players to perform above their contracts and avoid inefficient deals. The advantage of teams in states without taxes is a factor, but many of the best players outperform their contract value even with the “tax discount”.
An example is Sam Reinhart, who likely would have obtained an average annual value of $10 million on the open market, but accepted $8.625 million to stay with the Florida Panthers. Reinhart’s actual value, according to an analysis, is closer to $12.6 million, which means Florida gets an additional value of $2.6 million, in addition to the “tax discount.” Similar situations exist for Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
Alofoke Deportes
In states with taxes, elite players like Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier also outperform their contracts. The best example might be Edmonton, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman significantly outperform the value of their contracts. Despite Draisaitl’s contract, it is expected to be efficient when it comes into effect. For Evan Bouchard, any contract with an AAV below $9.5 million would be considered efficient.
According to reports, Mitch Marner could get $14 million per year, while an efficient contract would be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player represented by Darren Ferris, is reportedly seeking an AAV close to $9 million. This would mean that a player with a career high of 51 points would have a contract similar to that of an elite second-line center, but with the production of an underperforming second-line or high-performing third-line player. Although there are legitimate arguments for Marner’s value in the regular season and Bennett’s value in the playoffs, any team aspiring to compete cannot afford to pay those players 10% above their value.
Given Toronto’s salary structure, extending Marner’s contract is unlikely to result in long-term success, as it would hinder the balance of the lineup. If Marner wants to play on a competitive team and win, contract efficiency is crucial. Applying the same efficiency of Draisaitl’s next contract, a comparison that Marner’s team is using, anything above $12 million would hurt the team’s ability to compete, and that’s assuming Marner performs at Draisaitl’s level in the playoffs, which hasn’t happened yet. Marner would need to sign for around $10 million AAV to have a valuable contract, similar to those of Reinhart, Kucherov, and Kaprizov.
The need for a significant change in Toronto is evident. Although there were several thwarted trades that would have allowed Toronto to make significant changes in recent years, Toronto is facing the reality that a superstar caliber player will likely be lost for nothing. However, Toronto cannot afford to extend Marner’s contract with an inefficient contract, especially considering his playoff performance. Here’s how they should proceed.WITH THE CONTRACTS of Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs have a lot of room to maneuver. They can’t replace Marner’s value with a single player, but they can redistribute resources throughout the lineup.
Tavares is likely to extend his contract in Toronto, and the rumored AAV is around $5 million, which is an efficient contract for a middle-line center, who scored 38 goals in 2024-25. The Leafs should avoid a bridge contract for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, opting for a long-term deal in the $8.5 million AAV range. Combined, that costs less than what Marner is asking for, and the combined value of Knies and Tavares exceeds Marner’s value.
Toronto should expect Easton Cowan to contribute in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It’s almost imperative that Toronto GM Brad Treliving moves out two between David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The cap space this frees up could be used to sign Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand, or Pius Suter, all of whom bring significantly more value in elevated roles.
That series of restructurings would allow Toronto to have three productive lines. The Panthers’ third line was the difference in the Leafs’ series loss, and that’s because the efficient contracts at the top of the Panthers’ roster allowed for a more balanced approach to the lineup.
Speaking of the Panthers, there are rumors that the Leafs are interested in Sam Bennett. While it’s easy to understand, let’s remember the player Bennett was before Florida. In his previous role as Flames general manager, Treliving traded Bennett from Calgary for spare parts because he couldn’t find his game. Bennett fits perfectly in Florida, although much of his value comes from extracurricular activities, rather than offensive production. If those extracurricular activities were more penalized, they would lose their value.
Let’s consider that Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points this season and is likely to sign for around $5 million. Bennett scored a career-high 51 points this season. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times that of Tavares until he is Tavares’ age, having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game throughout his career, would be catastrophic.
Florida is entirely correct in not wanting to pay more than $7 million per year for Bennett, which would already be slightly inflated. Given Florida’s success in recent years, the Maple Leafs would do well to follow those signals. An AAV of $7.5 million is inefficient but manageable if the Leafs believe that Bennett’s extracurricular activities won’t attract more attention in a market where the hockey team is first, second, and third in coverage. If Bennett’s team presses further, the Leafs would do well to look elsewhere. Targeting Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1, and orchestrating a trade for Mason Marchment with Dallas, in a theoretical example of a more balanced approach.
REGARDLESS OF which specific players are signed or added via trade, the Maple Leafs need to balance their forward depth and refrain from signing inefficient contracts. There are too many on the books, and the Leafs would do well to get rid of a couple of them. The best teams don’t compete for one or two players; that’s true even for the Oilers (although it certainly helps to have McDavid and Draisaitl).
Instead, the best teams compete year after year because their best players outperform their contracts, and the depth in the lineup provides quality minutes because management can acquire better players that provide balance. Current examples are Florida’s third line, along with Edmonton’s depth including Corey Perry, Jake Walman, and Connor Brown. Due to the efficient contracts of Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene, Dallas was able to acquire a superstar like Mikko Rantanen.
Toronto needs to be ruthless, in the way the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their back-to-back Stanley Cup runs and the way the Vegas Golden Knights have been throughout their existence.If a player is unwilling to sign for what the team needs to succeed, then they won’t be a Leaf. Significant trade protection for anyone outside of the top six forwards or top four defensemen needs to be a thing of the past. No-trade clauses of eight or ten teams for third-line players are manageable, but the days of giving bottom-line defensemen and people like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Reaves any level of trade protection should end. They can’t hamstring their ability to make moves by providing trade protection to players who are easily replaceable every summer.
For the Leafs to win, they need to stay focused on their pursuit of contractual efficiency, and that likely means losing pure talent in the short term to create a more balanced long-term approach that has worked so well for other clubs.
