Week 11 of the NFL is history! A week marked by important decisions on the sidelines. Keon Coleman, Bills receiver, was benched for being late to meetings, while Abdul Carter, the Giants defensive end, was benched after missing a practice. Cowboys receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens also missed the first series on Monday. In addition, the week was full of game-winning plays at the last second. Every Tuesday, we’ll break down the NFL action, exploring the most important stories and what they mean for the future. We’ll look for balanced reactions, celebrate exciting moments, and highlight what you missed on Sunday and Monday. There will be play analysis, statistics, and, above all, fun.
Contents
Highlights: Ranking of the Best Coaches
This column will begin each week with an analysis of a key game, player, or trend from the previous week. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’ll analyze the performance of some of the new NFL coaches after 11 weeks. Three of the seven coaches hired in 2025 have their teams in playoff position. Two, Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson, lead their divisions! And they are not easy divisions. In January and February, each new coach preaches patience while their fans dream of promotion in the first year. The difference has been marked in the 2025 class, as Vrabel, Johnson, and Liam Coen have led their respective teams to winning records. Each had a big win in Week 11: the Patriots in an intradivisional game on Thursday night, the Bears on the road with a key kick return at the end, and the Jaguars resoundingly against a solid Chargers team. So, what’s working for the new coaches? I analyzed the promise of each hiring, the expectation of how they would bring success to their new franchises, and compared it to the reality of their seasons so far. One team is ahead of schedule, another got the ideal result from their bet, and another team is… difficult to understand.1. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
The promise: An elite offensive scheme and play-calling prowess that unlocks the best of Caleb Williams.The result: Exactly that (in progress)
The Bears are difficult to decipher. They have a 7-3 record and have shown tremendous composure for such a young group, especially on offense. Williams has authored five game-winning drives. He’s done it at home and on the road. He’s done it on days when his defense failed him (against the Bengals in Week 9) and when the offense struggled for most of the contest (against the Giants in Week 10). One of the other promises Johnson made was the improvement of situational football (it couldn’t have been worse with the outgoing coaching staff), and he has delivered overwhelmingly. But the Bears also have a negative point differential. They have played against a team that currently has a winning record (Lions) and lost that game 52-21. They played another game against a team with a power ranking above the league average (Ravens) and lost 30-16. ESPN’s Football Power Index currently ranks the Bears at 19; DVOA has them at 25. But due to their position at the top of the NFC North, the focus of this season has suddenly shifted from developing a foundation to competing in the NFC playoffs. Let’s remember the expectation that Johnson’s complex offense, based on movement and timing, would take time to install. That Williams would need to grow in the system and that Johnson would have to adapt his approach to suit a passer stylistically different from Jared Goff. That the entire offensive line and running game required a reinvention. In these benchmarks alone, Johnson has been a resounding success. Chicago could be 2-8 right now, if all those winning streaks hadn’t gone their way, and he’d still be saying the same thing. Johnson’s status as one of the league’s top five players has been clearly cemented in his first season out of Detroit. The Bears’ offense works. And it’s significantly ahead of schedule. Offensive line renovations in a year are usually the stuff of myths, but Chicago’s four new starters on the line have come together wonderfully. Right guard Jonah Jackson has returned to his pre-injury form and is working with franchise right tackle Darnell Wright as a dominant force in run blocking. Since Week 6, when the Bears returned from their bye week, 64% of their runs have gone to the right; before the bye week, it was 49%. On the left side, guard Joe Thuney has been a constant positive presence. Center Drew Dalman, who was unsteady at the start of the season, has flourished as Johnson adjusted his protections and his run-blocking approach to maximize the undersized but athletic center. The success of the four veterans has allowed Johnson to dedicate resources to protecting left tackle Theo Benedet, who has impressive traits but is raw as a pass protector, after he took over the starting position from Braxton Jones. Benedet receives a lot of help in the passing game, but the Bears are impactful in all five positions in the running game. Chicago leads the league in expected yards per carry, according to NFL Next Gen stats. In other words, the blocking and space when the running back receives the ball is better in Chicago than anywhere else in the league. It’s difficult to overstate the magnitude of this achievement. Johnson’s commitment to building the Chicago running game has created an easier environment for throwing the ball. Williams has seen the base defense on 31.7% of his throws, which is the second highest, behind only Lamar Jackson; he has faked a play-action on 32.3%, which is third, behind Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones. Pre-snap manipulation is only half the battle, as 30.2% of Williams’ pass attempts this season have been thrown to targets tracked as “wide open” by NFL Next Gen Stats (at least 5 yards of separation). That’s the highest rate in the league, and it remains the highest if you filter out throws behind the line of scrimmage. Johnson is pushing the easy buttons for Williams, and Williams is more than holding up his end of the bargain. Week after week, the Bears’ operation becomes smoother. They have reduced pre-snap penalties. Williams, who was missing the in routes at the beginning of the season, is hitting them at his receivers’ numbers. Sure, problems remain: the Bears’ receivers have 13 drops, and some of them are the result of poorly timed routes and throws between the quarterback and receiver, but they are fewer and farther between.When the Johnson scheme fails, Williams is there to color the lines. Only Sam Darnold and Bo Nix have avoided sacks at a higher rate than Williams this season, and Williams is fifth in total career EPA. If the Bears can start connecting more long shots when Williams goes into creation mode, the last infinity stone will slide into place for this offense, and the passing game will come alive. They’ve been so close the last two weeks. It seems like the snowball is about to start rolling down the mountain.
Chicago has the league’s toughest remaining schedule (though a Steelers team led by Mason Rudolph on Sunday would soften it a bit). I’m not sure how the Bears’ season will turn out and what they can do in the postseason with a thin defense and a green offense. But, regardless of the results, the process in Chicago is excellent. Johnson is everything that was promised, and in short order, Williams will be too.2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
The promise: A consistent executive director of personnel and culture who would raise the level of the team.
The result: A bigger boost than even the most loyal Patriots fan could have hoped for.Before giving Vrabel his deserved praise, there’s a necessary caveat that’s too easily overlooked in Patriots discussions this season. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye was much, much closer to MVP form this season than he was given credit for last season. I wrote about this coming out of Week 16 of last season, when Jayden Daniels was on the verge of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. I thought Maye was authoring a more impressive season.
Maye’s debut season was ninth in completion rate and fourteenth in EPA per dropback among all rookie quarterbacks of the 2000s. Daniels was third and seventh, respectively, but Maye was dealing with much worse pass protection and receiving play, not to mention coaching errors. Maye’s high-end plays were also misinterpreted, as there were far more examples of high-level processing, ball placement, and calculated aggression on his film than the Patriots’ record would have led one to believe. By the end of the season, he was in full stride. As such, I give Vrabel less credit for Maye’s leap towards MVP than the average analyst might. But Vrabel hasn’t put a foot wrong in building the team around Maye, and for that, he deserves bouquets. Four new starters occupy the offensive line, two through free agency, two through the draft, and while the line is still below average, it’s not prohibitive to offensive success as it was last season. What about the skill positions? Of Maye’s 308 targets, 152 (49.4%) have gone to Vrabel acquisitions, as have 1,303 of Maye’s 2,836 yards (45.9%). Vrabel’s hiring of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator was spot on, but the defense has made the biggest leap. The entire unit has been reimagined under Vrabel, who brought in DT Milton Williams, DT Khyiris Tonga, edge rusher Harold Landry III, DT Cory Durden, edge K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Robert Spillane, LB Jack Gibbens, CB Carlton Davis III, and safety Craig Woodson. That’s 3,909 defensive snaps of acquisitions made this offseason, and each player has met or exceeded expectations. Beyond his work as a quasi-GM, Vrabel has dramatically improved the Patriots’ situation. New England has 57 points in the final two minutes of the first half this season, the second-best mark after the Buccaneers. The Patriots have only conceded 34 points in those situations, making them the tenth-best. The Patriots are 13 of 16 on fourth down, and that 81.3% conversion rate leads the league. The red zone is the only weak point, with an average offense, a 57.5% touchdown rate, and a below-average defense. But hey, nobody’s perfect. Anecdotally, the Patriots seem like a veteran team. They have risen to the occasion in big moments (road wins in Buffalo and Tampa Bay) and have avoided the points of disappointment that often catch young teams. They handled the Jets, Titans, Saints, Browns, and Panthers, struggling teams that often outplay teams that suddenly win, like New England.
3. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars
The promise: An offense that would finally unlock Trevor Lawrence.The result: I’m really not sure yet. The Jaguars are one of the most perplexing teams of the 2025 season. With a 6-4 record, they are in the middle of the AFC playoff hunt. DVOA has them as a completely average team (15th), as does the success rate (15th on offense, 24th on defense) and EPA (20th on offense, 13th on defense). FPI has them as the 17th best team. Point margin has them in 12th place. They’re not average; they’re volatile. Of the 328 NFL games played so far this season, the Jaguars defense has three of the top 50 in success rate, and three of the worst 75. By offensive success rate, they just had the 18th best game in the league this season in their 35-6 victory over the Chargers, and the third best of Lawrence’s career, a week after having the 241st. In attack, Coen’s biggest impact has been in the running game, not the passing attack. While his 2024 Buccaneers offense excelled with a high-percentage passing game and explosive runs behind him, the 2025 Jaguars have few explosive plays on the ground. But the engine of the offense has remained Travis Etienne Jr. and, recently, rookie Bhayshul Tuten. The improvement in the interior offensive line with free agents Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari has allowed Coen to beat bad run defenses. Review the games in which the Jaguars offense was functional, and you’ll see some bad run defenses: the Chargers, Bengals, and Raiders. The run game is where Coen’s coaching creativity and insight shine. This was even true in Tampa Bay. Although it wasn’t the feature of that offense, the Bucs ran a wide variety of concepts and regularly adapted their run approach to that week’s opponent; Jacksonville has done the same, though with a more league-average offensive line. But the passing game has undoubtedly lagged. Before Sunday’s beatdown of the Chargers, Jacksonville ranked 25th in EPA per pass, 27th in success rate, and 27th in first down plus touchdown rate. It’s worth noting that Lawrence’s receivers lead the league in drops, and a carousel of receivers have filled the void following injuries to tight end Brenton Strange and receivers Travis Hunter (who didn’t have the kind of two-way success the Jaguars hoped he would before being sidelined for the season) and Brian Thomas Jr. (who has had a rather disappointing second-year season). There is justification for the difficulty of the passing game at the beginning of the season, and perhaps this more recent performance indicates that the corner is being turned. But as things stand, Lawrence is still blocked. The good news, and the surprising victory, is that it seems Coen got it right with the hiring of his defensive coordinator. First-year DC Anthony Campanile, who came from the Green Bay system under Jeff Hafley, is running the cutting-edge schemes that defense nerds love. According to Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars are seventh in simulated pressure rate, dropping a defensive lineman from the line of scrimmage on 36.4% of their snaps. Linebacker Devin Lloyd and nickel cornerback Jourdan Lewis have made great strides in this system. This is a bend-but-don’t-break defensive philosophy, so the numbers aren’t continuously pretty. Jacksonville ranks 24th in defensive success rate, but 13th in expected points. Like the Packers’ defense last season, the Jaguars win by limiting explosive plays (9.8% of opponent snaps, seventh in the league) and creating timely turnovers. Only the Rams and Bears are generating more turnovers per drive than the Jaguars. Unlike the Bears and Patriots’ technical bodies, who managed to change personnel quickly enough to generate a proof of concept in the first year, the Jaguars still need help on the roster before anything concrete can be said about their personnel. Who is the best offensive player for the Jaguars? Strange when healthy, or Thomas when in form? After edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who is the best defensive player? Lloyd or Lewis, probably. There just isn’t enough talent to tip the scales for either side of the ball to make substantial waves. With that in mind, it’s a positive sign that the staff has achieved a 6-4 record. But for the Jaguars staff, like most first-year teams, it’s too early to say exactly what this group is capable of.Second Opinion: The Seahawks Remain a Top NFC Contender
The ESPN program “First Take” is known for, well, offering the first opinion on things, instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions, but where I will let the dust settle before perhaps adopting a slightly contrarian view. In the most important game of the 2025 NFL season to date, the 7-2 Rams faced the 7-2 Seahawks in a battle not only for NFC West supremacy, but also for the true path to an NFC Championship berth. On the surface, a 21-19 Rams victory that ended with a missed field goal by the Seahawks implies a close and hard-fought contest. But Seahawks fans are dismayed by how they got there. Star quarterback Sam Darnold, a legitimate MVP candidate through 10 weeks, threw four interceptions in a ghastly, throwback performance. Because Darnold was seen as the last time we saw him in the NFC playoffs (against these same Rams, no less), it’s easy to jump to an obvious conclusion: Darnold can’t face NFC playoff teams. He withers in the big moments. The Seahawks are a dead team walking. I’d like to pour some cold water on that overreaction. And I’d like to start with a reminder that Darnold’s exciting season isn’t even the coolest thing about the Seahawks in 2025. That’s Mike Macdonald’s defense. It can be legitimately argued that this was the best defensive performance against Matthew Stafford in a Rams jersey. Stafford has started in 74 regular season and postseason games under Sean McVay, and by EPA per pass, Sunday’s game was 72nd (minus 0.36 EPA per pass). To put it in perspective, that ranks right around Bo Nix’s game against the Raiders in Week 10 (minus 0.35)… and the game Darnold just played against the Rams (minus 0.34).By completion percentage? It’s 71 of 74. By completion percentage relative to expectation? He ranks 73rd of 74, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. By yards per pass attempt, it wasn’t just the worst game of Stafford’s tenure with the Rams; it was the worst by a considerable margin (4.6, relative to his previous worst of 5.3).
The Seahawks didn’t do one special thing to dismantle the Rams’ passing attack. Rather, they did everything. They pressured Stafford with four, jammed the wide receivers off the line, tackled well underneath, challenged the catch point with physicality, matched routes well in zone coverage, got lucky with a drop or two, and generated unblocked rushers on blitzes. It was a consummated defensive performance in the air. The Rams’ passing game looked like the Titans’ passing game. Seattle’s ground defense suffered a bit in return. Rams running back Kyren Williams had 76 yards in the first quarter, which was more than any running back had gained against the Seahawks all season. Seattle settled in quickly: Williams’ 76 yards came on his first six carries, and he only had 15 on his final six, but the damage was enough. The Rams scored 14 points when the first quarter ended; the Seahawks wouldn’t surpass 14 points until 2:23 remained in the game. The defensive performance alone should give Seahawks faithful a legitimate hook to hang their hat and hopes on. This is not to front at all. Perhaps there are three defenses capable of slowing down the Rams’ attack, and the other two (Denver and Houston) play in the AFC. (The Eagles might be there in January; we’ll see).While it’s enormously difficult to overcome the barrier of “our defense alone is good enough to win three playoff games in a row”, the Seahawks’ unit does it emphatically. The fact that they are now behind in the division and could play on the road in the postseason also doesn’t give me any pause. Macdonald’s road record is 11-2, for a winning percentage of .846, which far exceeds the next highest road winning percentage (Nick Sirianni’s .718). How many points would the Eagles or Lions score against this defense?
Of course, the main source of consternation for the Seahawks comes from the offensive performance. Darnold threw four interceptions, which is absolutely terrible, and the how of those four interceptions is even worse. But there may be glimpses of hope even in the worst games. The Rams dared the Seahawks to run. This was a predictable approach. Seattle entered the game first in passing success rate, but 21st in designed run success rate. Their entire passing game was predicated on play-action fakes, heavy personnel, and rollouts. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula was clearly committed to forcing Seattle to win those snaps. Shula played base defense (three linebackers, four defensive linemen) on just 34% of Seattle’s first-down snaps. For context, Seattle was seeing base on those snaps 58.6% of the time entering the game. Those extra defensive players were on the field to challenge Seattle to run the ball, and the Seahawks did their best. They had 30 first-down carries in open field (between their own 10-yard line and the Rams’ 20) and averaged 4.4 yards per carry, not bad! Advanced analytics weren’t spectacular: only one explosive run and a 33% success rate are disappointing and should be better, but it was enough to stay out of third and long! Seattle only had four third downs of 7+ yards and only one more beyond 10 yards.Of course, they didn’t convert any of those third-and-long situations. Which brings us to Darnold.
The last time Darnold played against the Rams, he was wearing a Vikings jersey in the 2024 playoff wild card round. The Rams hit him 14 times in that game and pressured him on 46% of his throws. Darnold also played against the Rams in the 2024 regular season, when he only took seven hits, but faced a pressure rate of 44.8%. Darnold played on Sunday absolutely terrified by the Rams’ pressure. Bluntly. From the first snap, he rushed throws from imperfect but still clean pockets. His accuracy was at a historic pace entering Sunday: his throw error rate was below 10%, something that has only happened twice in the NFL in a full season since 2006, but it decreased drastically at the first sign of the pocket collapsing. Let’s look at some examples. Here’s a third and 8 from the 12-yard line. Darnold has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who, as you may have heard, is having a very good season
