Analyzing the Possibilities: Which NFL Teams Could Surprise in 2025?
In the NFL, unpredictability is a constant. Each season, fans are excited about the possibility of their teams competing for the championship. A team’s ability to go from last to first in its division is a phenomenon that keeps hope alive.Since the NFL’s restructuring in 2002, with eight divisions of four teams, 25 teams have achieved this feat. Although there were no instances in 2024, the example of the Texans in 2023, who went from a 3-13-1 record to 10-7 and the AFC South title, demonstrates that it is possible.
Below, we analyze the eight teams that finished last in their divisions in 2024, ranking them based on their odds of winning their divisions in the 2025 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
- San Francisco 49ers, NFC West
2024 Record: 6-11
Division win probabilities: 35.8% (1st in the division)
Playoff chances: 62.4% (3rd in the NFC)
The 49ers have the best odds of going from last to first, mainly due to their schedule, the physical condition of their players, and because they didn’t have such a bad season. The team is expecting the recovery of key players, such as Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk.
Furthermore, they have the most favorable schedule in the league, which gives them an advantage over their divisional rivals.
- Chicago Bears, NFC North
Division win probabilities: 14.9% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 36.1% (10th in the NFC)Although they finished in 22nd place in the FPI, the Bears are viewed with optimism for 2025, partly thanks to the potential of Caleb Williams. However, the team faces a difficult schedule, which could be an obstacle.
- New England Patriots, AFC East
2024 Record: 4-13
Division win probabilities: 14.0% (3rd in the division)
Playoff chances: 33.9% (12th in the AFC) Drake Maye is expected to improve in his second year, and the team has made several additions. Despite this, the Bills’ dominance in the division could hinder the Patriots’ aspirations.
- New Orleans Saints, NFC South
Division win probabilities: 11.6% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 18.4% (15th in the NFC)
Despite being in last place according to the FPI, the Saints have an opportunity in a weak NFC South. The possible starting of Tyler Shough, after Derek Carr’s retirement, is a factor to consider.
- Tennessee Titans, AFC South
Division win probabilities: 8.9% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 14.8% (14th in the AFC)
The development of rookie Cameron Ward will be key to the Titans’ future. The defense, currently ranked 30th in DVOA, also needs to improve.
- Las Vegas Raiders, AFC West
Division win probability: 7.1% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 23.9% (13th in the AFC)Although surpassing Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West seems difficult, the arrival of Geno Smith and the possibility that the Broncos or Chargers may not perform as expected, opens a window of opportunity.
- New York Giants, NFC East
Division win probabilities: 3.3% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 10.1% (16th in the NFC)
The improvement in the quarterback position, with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart, and a more solid defense are positive points. However, the difficult schedule presents a considerable challenge.
- Cleveland Browns, AFC North
Division win probabilities: 2.7% (4th in the division)
Playoff chances: 9.8% (16th in the AFC)
The Browns, with a difficult schedule and an uncertain situation at the quarterback position, might be more focused on the future than on competing for the playoffs in the current season. The defense, which is looking to recover from a decline in its performance, could be a positive aspect.
