NFL 2025: Sack Projections, Who Will Lead the Charge?

Aidan Hutchinson Leads Sack Projections for 2025, According to Alofoke Deportes

Aidan Hutchinson’s impressive performances in the first five games of the 2024 season, before his injury, were not enough to earn recognition. However, his performance impacts how we see him going forward, being the main reason why Hutchinson tops the annual sack projections for the 2025 season, according to Alofoke Deportes’ analysis. The statistical model, which considers the previous performance and the current situation of the players, includes variables such as:

• Sack totals and rates in the last two seasons.
• Projected snaps.
• Pass rush win rate (PRWR).
• Previous sack rates of opposing quarterbacks.
• Team win totals according to betting odds.
• Frequency with which a player lines up on the edge vs. the interior.
• Age.

To be included, players must be defensive linemen or edge rushers, have pressured the passer at least 150 times in one of the last two seasons, have participated in at least 25% of their snaps last season, and be projected to play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. The model forecasts the average outcome for a player’s season, considering potential injuries.

Top 10 in Sacks Projections

Below, the analysis from Alofoke Deportes on the 10 players with the highest sack projections for the 2025 season:

1. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions. Sack projection: 12.2.

2. Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys. Sack projection: 12.0.

3. Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals. Sack projection: 11.4.

4. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns. Sack projection: 10.9.

5. T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers. Sack projection: 10.7.

6. Jonathan Greenard, Minnesota Vikings. Sack projection: 10.5.

7. Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders. Sack projection: 10.5.

8. Danielle Hunter, Houston Texans. Sack projection: 9.8.

9. Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars. Sack projection: 9.8.

10. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers. Sack projection: 9.7.

Aidan Hutchinson, with 7.5 sacks in just five games and an impressive pass rush win rate of 35%, demonstrates exceptional potential. Despite his youth and good performance on a promising team, the model considers the possibility that the Lions’ new defensive coordinator, Kelvin Sheppard, will implement a blitzing scheme similar to Aaron Glenn’s, which could further increase Hutchinson’s sack projections.Micah Parsons, known for his consistency, could have a standout season in 2025. However, limited expectations for the Cowboys could restrict his sack opportunities.Trey Hendrickson, despite his impressive previous seasons, is affected by factors such as age and the difficult schedule of quarterbacks he will face.Myles Garrett, with seven consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks, will have to overcome the projection of a low-performing team to maintain his level.T.J. Watt, despite a less outstanding season, the model still considers him an elite player, based on his previous performances.Jonathan Greenard, fueled by his own production and the tactics of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who often implements an aggressive blitzing strategy.Maxx Crosby, despite a season shortened by an injury, his high projected snap count and the favorable schedule of rival quarterbacks increase his chances of sacks.Danielle Hunter, who led the league in pass rush win rate, is affected by age and the schedule of quarterbacks who avoid sacks.Josh Hines-Allen, with a standout season two years ago, although his win rate isn’t elite, could surprise.Nick Bosa, with an outstanding pass rush win rate, although the model considers his performance limited to 14 games.

Other Notable Projections

Other players with outstanding projections include Brian Burns, Chris Jones, and Josh Sweat. Brian Burns, despite not reaching double digits in sacks in the last two seasons, is near the top 10 thanks to his high pass rush win rate and favorable quarterback schedule. Chris Jones, despite a decrease in his sacks, remains the best projected among defensive tackles. Josh Sweat, despite a million-dollar contract, may not meet expectations due to his performance on a team with less defensive talent.

Best Bets According to the Model

Alofoke Deportes’ analysis also includes betting recommendations based on the model:

• Travon Walker: “Under” 9.5 sacks.
• Myles Garrett: “Under” 13.0 sacks.
• Joey Bosa: “Over” 5.5 sacks.

These projections and recommendations offer a detailed view of what is expected for the 2025 NFL season, highlighting key players and potential betting opportunities.