Warriors: NBA Dynasty Reborn? Curry and Butler, Threat in the West?

A decade after conquering their first title of four that marked a dynasty, the Golden State Warriors seem to have been surpassed by the rest of the Western Conference. However, not everything is lost for the Bay team. According to projections, the Warriors have the seventh-best odds of winning the West this season, behind the defending champions Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and LA Clippers. This position makes sense given that they were the seventh seed last season and fell in the second round of the playoffs. However, underestimating the Warriors would be a mistake. Despite their age, they are shaping up to be one of the most dangerous teams in the West, even capable of competing with the Thunder. The current NBA runners-up could be the “dark horse” that prevents the new favorites from repeating the feat.

A team with Curry and Butler at full performance

Kevin Pelton’s projections from ESPN place the Warriors in second place in the NBA, with 56 wins, which puts them closer to the top of the West than to the play-in zone. The key to understanding this discrepancy between general perception and projections is simple: with Butler on the team for half a season, the Warriors proved to be one of the best teams in the league, and they improved in the offseason. Therefore, they should be contenders again. There is no shame in losing that way, as any contender would expect to suffer without their best player.

Before Butler’s transfer, Golden State had a record of 25-26. But from his debut to the end of the regular season, the team led the league in defensive efficiency and was third in net efficiency, averaging +9.2 per 100 possessions. The 23-8 record in that period, which translates to 61 wins in a full season, was no coincidence.

With Curry back and Butler on the team for a full season, there’s no reason to think the Warriors will get worse. In addition, they will benefit from incredible continuity. Twelve of their 13 most important players in the 2024-25 playoffs will return in 2025-26, and they improved the only absence with the arrival of Al Horford.

The Impact of Horford

The arrival of Horford is crucial, as Curry has never played with a center like the 39-year-old NBA champion. Horford has made three-pointers in the triple digits in each of the last three seasons, and his 40.9% three-point shooting percentage during that period is the best among all centers with at least 100 three-pointers made. Additionally, Horford is a superior defender and playmaker to Dario Saric and Quinten Post, making him a better overall fit for the Warriors’ lineup. There is tremendous defensive potential in an interior frontcourt with Butler, Green, and Horford, who have a combined 15 All-Defensive team appearances in their careers. A solid defense is as important to the Warriors’ winning identity as Curry’s three-pointers. In 2021-22, their last championship season, the Warriors finished second in defensive efficiency versus 16th in offense. And last year, Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency after Butler’s arrival, even without Horford.

A balanced roster

Golden State should also improve on the other end of the court this season. In 2024-25, the offense functioned well while Curry was on the court, but it collapsed when he rested; lineups without Curry or Butler ranked in the 5th percentile in offensive efficiency. Age and availability could get in the way of that plan. Curry has averaged 15 missed games per season since missing almost the entire 2019-20 season, while Butler hasn’t reached the 65-game threshold for NBA awards since 2018-19. The Warriors will likely struggle again when Curry goes to the bench in games Butler misses. Jonathan Kuminga, who is still on the team, could play a significant role as the best scoring option in the minutes without Curry or Butler. Currently, it’s not clear where the Warriors would need to improve. As the season approaches, they operate with an enviable combination of star power and depth. Five different Warriors players (Curry, Butler, Green, Horford, and Brandin Podziemski) are among the top 10% of the league’s most impactful players, according to the advanced statistic xRAPM. The only other teams with more than three such players are the Thunder, the Rockets, and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Warriors’ biggest problem might not be anything specific to their roster, but the context surrounding them: the top of the West is much better than it was in 2022. Even the Thunder, who have no major concerns, could have difficulty getting rid of Golden State in a possible playoff matchup. The Warriors have consistently played well against this version of the Thunder. In the last two seasons, Golden State has a 3-4 record against Oklahoma City. The Warriors would need to navigate a minefield to have a chance. But it’s not a totally unrealistic proposition, and at this stage of their competitive timeline, a chance is all the Warriors can ask for. With James Wiseman and Kuminga gone mid-way, the Warriors’ “two timeline” plan has been scrapped. Now it’s about maximizing Curry’s remaining opportunities to add to his trophy case.