The NBA Prepares for a Crucial Period of Contract Extensions
The NBA season begins on Tuesday, but the attention of league executives is focused on another important aspect: contract extensions for rookie players. The deadline for these extensions, as well as for veterans signed beyond this season, is Monday at 6 p.m. ET, approximately 24 hours before the Houston Rockets face the current champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, to kick off the 2025-26 season.
We’ve already seen several players from the 2022 draft class sign extensions with their teams. Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr., the number one, two, and three picks respectively, signed long-term deals with the Orlando Magic, Thunder, and Rockets in July. Jalen Williams (number 12 by OKC) and Nikola Jovic (number 27 by the Miami Heat) have also secured their contracts. Recently, the Sacramento Kings and Keegan Murray agreed to a five-year, $140 million extension.
Of the 15 players eligible for contract extensions from that class, how many will manage to secure long-term deals with their current teams? Considering that most rookie extensions in 2023 and 2024 were signed on the last business day, and that teams must reduce their rosters to 15 players with standard contracts by Monday, we analyze the landscape for some of the most prominent names.Analysis of Key Negotiations
Here’s an analysis of the most interesting negotiations and how they might unfold:Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Why an extension could materialize: Daniels has been a success for Atlanta. He arrived at the Hawks as part of the trade that sent Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans and became the NBA’s Most Improved Player last season, leading the league in steals. The Hawks reached an agreement with Jalen Johnson last year, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a solution for Daniels.Why it might not happen: His agent is using the five-year, $150 million extension that Jalen Suggs signed last year as a reference, in addition to considering Trae Young’s uncertain future in Atlanta. Daniels was named to the All-Defense first team and increased his offensive production. However, Young has a $49 million player option for next season.Proposal: A five-year contract and $125 million.Will it happen?: Negotiations are likely to extend until the deadline on Monday. An agreement is expected, although agreeing on a figure may be complicated.Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Why an extension could materialize: Braun has become a key piece for Denver, helping the Nuggets win their first NBA title as a rookie and taking on a starting role. Watson, for his part, is an athlete with an interesting skill set, which makes him attractive for a long-term contract.Why it might not happen: The Nuggets could be financially limited. Although they have reduced their salary spending, they could still be below the salary cap, not including the new contracts of Braun and Watson. Furthermore, the team’s financial situation could make it difficult to sign extensions.Proposal: For Braun, a five-year extension and $126.5 million. For Watson, a four-year extension and $54 million.Will it happen?: The Braun deal is more likely to happen. Watson is an intriguing player, but Denver may not make a similar investment at this time, especially given their future finances.Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Why an extension could materialize: Ivey was showing signs of improvement before an injury. His skillset could complement Cade Cunningham in the backcourt. For Duren, he is a young player with development potential.Why it might not happen: Ivey’s injury could influence the decision. Detroit’s management could be cautious with his contract. Also, the team might not be willing to pay a high price for a center.Proposal: For Duren, a five-year extension and $112.5 million. For Ivey, a four-year extension and $86.5 million.Will it happen?: It’s unlikely to happen. There are too many factors complicating Ivey’s situation. It’s more likely that both parties will wait until next season to reassess. Furthermore, the current management didn’t draft these players.Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Why an extension could materialize: Eason is a valuable player for analysis and has been consistent for the Rockets. Houston has shown its ability to secure its young players with good contracts.Why it might not happen: The Rockets could consider Eason’s injuries. They also signed Jabari Smith Jr. to an extension and are expected to sign Kevin Durant.Proposal: Four years and $80 million.Will it happen?: It is likely to happen. With Eason’s injury history, securing long-term financial security makes sense. The Rockets have secured their young players, so they are expected to continue doing so.Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Why an extension could materialize: The Pacers’ coach has indicated that Mathurin will be a starter. For a team that tends to retain its talents, a deal with Mathurin could make sense.Why it might not happen: Indiana might not be able to pay the holder when it already has a large amount of money committed to other players. Mathurin has been a substitute in most of the games of the last seasons. An extension could also put Indiana above the luxury tax.Proposal: Four years and $68 million.Will it happen?: Unlikely. Indiana already has a lot of money committed to other players and doesn’t have a clear starting center among the players under contract. A deal that Mathurin would accept now seems too expensive for the Pacers.Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
Why an extension could happen: Phoenix has already shown its commitment to Williams, sending first-round picks to get him. Getting Williams to sign a long-term contract would make sense.Why it might not happen: Williams’ health could be an issue. He has had problems with injuries. A likely approach is to evaluate Williams this season and then negotiate contracts next summer.Proposal: A three-year extension and $51 million.Will it happen?: It’s unlikely to happen, even with the investment the Suns made to get Williams. It seems like a wait-and-see situation.Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
Why an extension could materialize: Sharpe was the first draft pick of general manager Joe Cronin in 2022. He is a versatile forward. Portland will want to keep him as part of their project.Why it might not happen: Salary flexibility in the upcoming offseason. Even after the trades, Portland is already over the salary cap. The Blazers would have to let Sharpe walk in free agency to free up space.Proposal: Four years and $105 million.Will it happen?: It is likely to happen. The Blazers have added veterans to complement their young core. Keeping Sharpe and building on that momentum is part of that plan.Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Why an extension could materialize: An agreement with Kessler would ensure that Utah’s reconstruction is anchored by a player who has demonstrated his ability to protect the rim.Why it might not happen: Kessler was selected outside of the lottery. If the Jazz were to sign Kessler with a starting salary of $25 million for next season, they would lose $10 million in salary flexibility. Utah projects to have a minimum of $50 million in space.Proposal: Five years and $116 million.Will it happen?: It’s unlikely. Both sides have indicated that it won’t happen. Kessler’s low salary burden for next summer without an extension will make him a valuable trade option.
The NBA is preparing for a crucial period, and the coming days will be decisive in defining the future of several franchises.
