NBA: Contract Extensions in Lakers, Knicks, Rockets, Bulls, Heat, and Hawks

NBA Extension Season: An In-Depth Analysis

The NBA extension season has reached its peak. Teams are at a crucial moment, with the contract extension deadline fast approaching. The pressure is mounting, and the decisions made in the coming days could define the course of several franchises. It’s the “torture chamber,” as an agent described it to Alofoke Deportes this week. The deadline for most eligible players to sign extensions expires next Monday at 6 p.m. ET. Often, pessimism sets in during this period, although agreements, and the commitments that make them possible, occur regularly. However, the current level of skepticism is notable, driven by several key factors.

One of them is the continuous adaptation to the “apron” system, which forces teams to be even more cautious with long-term spending. Added to this is the talented free agent class of the summer of 2027, where figures like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, and Anthony Davis could be available to sign with any team. The deals that are closed, and those that are not, in the coming days, will lay the groundwork for future negotiations and give an idea of what free agency could be like next summer.

Key Situations: Houston Rockets and Miami Heat

We closely analyze some of the most relevant situations, starting with an extension that, surprisingly, has not yet been finalized, involving a future Hall of Famer who changed teams this summer.

Will Kevin Durant’s extension conversations take off in Houston?

The Rockets, under the direction of General Manager Rafael Stone, have demonstrated excellent management of their salary structure, which will influence Durant’s contract situation, as well as the extension of rookie Tari Eason. With Fred VanVleet likely exercising his $25 million option for next season, the Rockets have around $70 million to sign Durant and Eason, and thus stay below the dreaded second “apron” of the luxury tax. This would allow them to continue adding players to a roster that aims to compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference.

If negotiations were as simple as “giving Kevin all the money possible”, as was Jimmy Butler’s extension with the Golden State Warriors after his arrival via trade, the deal would probably already be closed. Therefore, Houston is expected to try to reach agreements with both players and stay below the second “apron” next summer.

Durant and his business partner and agent, Rich Kleiman, are optimistic that an agreement with the Rockets will eventually be reached. It is clear that the Rockets are not offering Durant the maximum of two years and $120 million for which he is eligible, otherwise, the deal would already be done. Durant has publicly stated that he sees himself staying in Houston. There appears to be some negotiation below the maximum, and the figure could depend on what happens with Eason, as the Rockets manage the “apron”. While there is probably no drama here, it’s worth noting that Durant is also not afraid of unrestricted free agency.

The Balancing Act for the Present and Future of the Miami Heat

Tyler Herro, after an All-Star season, is interested in extending his contract with the Heat, but so far there have been no substantial conversations and an agreement is doubtful. Herro is the player the Heat should probably be most interested in extending. However, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. As for two other extension candidates, recently acquired such as Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins, long-term deals are also unlikely. Powell, whom the LA Clippers traded to Miami in part to avoid their own extension problem with him, could get a short contract, if any. Wiggins, for his part, has a player option for $30 million in 2026-27, and while it’s possible the Heat will hope to negotiate a different figure, it’s also possible they won’t. The key to understanding what will happen with the main candidates for Miami’s extension lies in the extension that Miami did sign at the beginning of training camp with forward Nikola Jovic, the number 27 pick in the 2022 NBA draft. That four-year deal for just over $60 million starts with $16.2 million in 2026-27, before dropping to $14.9 million in 2027-28 and then going back up.

Why did Miami do that? Because, according to sources, the Heat, like many other teams in the league, are planning for the aforementioned 2027 free agent class. The possibility of Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Mitchell, and Davis becoming unrestricted free agents that summer is unlikely. But, regardless of whether they do or not, several star names could join them, including Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.

The fact that Paul George is the only All-Star who has changed teams through free agency in recent years is a sign that this path is much less fruitful than it has been in the past. With the new extension rules that have made it more lucrative to re-sign with current teams, many of those players could be off the market when free agency arrives that summer. Miami will always be a destination for players. By maintaining flexibility for the 2027 offseason, the Heat give themselves the opportunity to rebuild their roster around Adebayo and try to compete for the title again. While that doesn’t necessarily prevent a deal with Herro or Powell from happening, it’s hard to see Miami giving up their cap space until they have a good reason to do so.

When a good contract hinders an extension…

There is a 0.0% chance that Austin Reaves will sign a contract extension, and a 99.9% chance that he will decline his $14.8 million player option for next season. Reaves has one of the best-value contracts in the NBA due to contract extension rules. Players can only get 140% of their current salary in an extension, meaning Reaves could get a deal for approximately $89 million in four years. His market will be much higher. The Lakers have all his rights and are the favorites to re-sign him, but everyone understands why he isn’t signing now. Similarly, Bulls guard Coby White will also not extend his contract now. White will earn $12.8 million this season and has outperformed his contract. Like Reaves, he is limited to the amount he can sign for now. His extension number is limited to around $18 million if he were to re-sign in Chicago now. His market is also sure to be higher. There is a lot of attention on LeBron James’ upcoming free agency. But it could be even more interesting to see what happens with Reaves when he reaches free agency next summer. If Reaves waits, he could get an annual salary starting with more than $40 million next season, after earning less than that combined during the first three seasons of his current contract. The 6-foot-5-inch guard has been a great success story since joining the Lakers as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He has steadily improved, averaging career-best numbers of 20.2 points and 5.8 assists last season, with 37.7% from the 3-point line on more than seven attempts per game. Not bad for a player who will be an unrestricted free agent at 28, and therefore will have many suitors. The same goes for White, for all the reasons mentioned. Even after the Bulls closed the four-year, $100 million deal for Josh Giddey earlier this summer, they still have approximately $75 million in available cap space next summer, to keep White and rebuild the roster around him, Giddey, and the team’s two lottery picks, forwards Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue.

A busy offseason could lead to a busy regular season in Atlanta

There is mutual interest between the Hawks and Kristaps Porzingis in extending his contract. However, with Porzingis’ injury history and a radical change in circumstances following the offseason trade that brought him from Boston, and after Porzingis spent much of the summer in Europe playing for the Latvian national team, both sides feel comfortable seeing how the season progresses. Unlike others, Porzingis is not facing a deadline to extend his contract on Monday. With one season remaining on a $30.7 million contract, he can extend it anytime between now and June 30. The same timeline applies to franchise player Trae Young, whose situation is more intriguing. Unlike Porzingis, whose contract expires after the season, Young has a $49 million player option for next season that he would prefer not to exercise and instead replace with a lucrative new deal. In another era, a multiple All-Star coming off his first max contract could expect his contract to be extended again at the max. But in the “apron” era and with the Hawks having to invest in younger players, Young is a bit in-between. He’s a star, but not a superstar, and a new max contract of 30% of the salary cap would be superstar money. We will probably see this situation more frequently in the coming years with this class of sub-superstar players seeking their second max contract. The Hawks are also negotiating with last year’s Most Improved Player, Dyson Daniels, who does face Monday’s deadline to extend his rookie contract. Last fall, the Hawks reached a similar last-minute agreement with Jalen Johnson, a five-year, $150 million deal that, in the future, looks like a very good operation for Atlanta. For the much-discussed and failed “two timelines” approach in Golden State, a similar situation is developing in Atlanta. The Hawks are excited about their young core of Johnson, Daniels, last year’s number 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, rookie Asa Newell, and potentially a very high draft pick next year through the New Orleans Pelicans. But Young and Porzingis are the two best players on the current roster and fit extremely well with the young players the Hawks have around them. Because of how the Hawks have managed their books in the last year, there is a world in which the Hawks could reach an agreement with Daniels, find deals for Young and Porzingis next summer, and stay below the “aprons”. That could give the Hawks the opportunity to do what all the teams in the league are trying to do and what few teams, apart from the Oklahoma City Thunder, have successfully achieved under the new CBA: develop and maintain depth in the squad.

An Update on the Costly Balancing Act in New York

The Knicks have had some conversations about extending center Mitchell Robinson’s contract, but there has been no progress towards an agreement yet. Robinson is in the final year of a contract that pays him $13 million this season. Towns has three years remaining on his contract, including this season, although 2027-28 is a $61 million player option. He has expressed his desire to stay in New York long-term, but there is no urgency from either side to reach a new agreement. One of the few reasons the Knicks would be reluctant to extend Towns’ or Robinson’s contract is because they are already playing a complicated game of limbo with the second “apron”. Does that mean some kind of spectacular trade is inevitable? Absolutely not. But the Knicks have repeatedly shown, under the team’s presidency of Leon Rose, that they are going to maintain as much roster flexibility as possible. Even the extension they signed this summer, with Mikal Bridges, allows him to be traded before the February 5th trade deadline, if the Knicks so decide.

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And then there’s the player who extended the contract last year…

Joel Embiid participated in Sunday’s public scrimmage and could make his preseason debut in the Philadelphia 76ers’ final exhibition game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. But we learned a long time ago that it’s foolish to plan much in 76ers territory beyond the next 24 hours. That said, Embiid playing in Sunday’s scrimmage was a pleasant surprise, and it’s in line with the general contours of how this preseason has unfolded for him and the 76ers: with Embiid regularly participating in practice and, apparently, preparing to play in the season opener next week in Boston. That’s a far cry from how his season began last fall, when Embiid signed a four-year, $240 million extension with Philadelphia only to then go through a disastrous campaign that ended with knee surgery in February. The 76ers operate in a different world than the rest of the league. They are so marked by the setbacks of injuries and so aware of the poison of the fans that, as a defense mechanism, they have learned not to make promises and to lower expectations. That said, Embiid is doing much more now than he was a year ago at this time. And although he has not yet begun to practice completely, George’s level of participation has also taken significant steps since training camp began. More immediately, however, they are very excited about the potential of rookie VJ Edgecombe. It’s remarkable how different the expectations surrounding Embiid, George, and the 76ers are now compared to just a year ago. Then, there was talk of it being a “championship or bust” season, and how it was finally going to be the breakthrough season that Embiid, the 76ers, and Philadelphia had been waiting for for over a decade. But after the calamitous way last season unfolded, there are practically no expectations this season. League general managers, by a wide margin, voted Philadelphia as the most difficult team in the league to project. That Embiid is relatively healthy, and that the 76ers make the playoffs again, would be considered at least somewhat successful in the wake of how badly the last 12 months have gone. All of that is why rival scouts and executives are eager to see Embiid in live action, to see if he resembles in any way the player he was before last season, or the one who struggled during those 19 games a year ago.