The NBA offseason is still ongoing, but the 2025-26 campaign is starting to take shape.The television broadcast schedule is being defined and the season schedule was presented last week. Training camps will open in just over a month.Here’s an analysis of the situation of the 30 teams before the season begins. A key number that defines each team’s position as the 2025-26 season approaches and the factors that could determine their results in the next 10 months.
NBA Team Analysis for the 2025-26 Season
Atlanta Hawks: 10 and 5There are many reasons for optimism for the Hawks this season, from Dyson Daniels’s progress to the best offseason for any team in the Eastern Conference. However, the Hawks’ chances of another run to the conference finals could depend on how high Jalen Johnson rises this season. The forward, who suffered several injuries, played only 36 games last season, but when he was available, few players did a better job of filling the stat sheet.Johnson averaged 10 rebounds and five assists per game last season, joining Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Domantas Sabonis as the only players to reach those round numbers. In the last four seasons, the only other player to reach those benchmarks is Joel Embiid. That doesn’t mean Johnson is an MVP contender, but he could be much closer to an All-NBA spot and stardom than anyone realizes.Boston Celtics: 99.5%The biggest absence for the Celtics this season will be Jayson Tatum, as he recovers from a torn Achilles tendon. But don’t underestimate how drastically Boston’s big man rotation has changed: last postseason, the Celtics gave 99.5% of their center minutes outside of garbage time to Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet, according to Cleaning the Glass. Now, all three are gone.They will be replaced by a combination of Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Chris Boucher, and Xavier Tillman, who bring various strengths and playing styles to the team, but are also worse than Horford, Porzingis, and Kornet. That’s a big adjustment for Boston and coach Joe Mazzulla, and another reason to doubt the Celtics’ ability to compete in their transition year without Tatum.Brooklyn Nets: 3According to GeniusIQ tracking data, six players averaged at least three minutes of possession in their games with Brooklyn last season. Five of those six (Dennis Schroder, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons, Killian Hayes, and Trendon Watford) are no longer with the organization; neither is Cameron Johnson, who ranked second on the team in points.The new Net Michael Porter Jr. should cover some of Johnson’s shooting functions, but he is not a great starter, which means there will be ball-handling opportunities available for the Nets’ young backcourt. Expect a lot of rookie growing pains, after Brooklyn drafted a record five first-round players. Also, expect Cam Thomas (assuming he re-signs with the Nets in restricted free agency) to record an absurd usage rate, after recording a 32.6% mark last season, just behind Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham in the league’s usage rankings.Charlotte Hornets: 35.9%LaMelo Ball led the league with a 35.9% usage rate last season, the twenty-third highest mark in a single season in history. Generally, players with such heavy workloads are superstars who put up big numbers; 19 of the 22 players ahead of LaMelo were part of an All-NBA team in the season in question. (The exceptions are DeMarcus Cousins the season he was traded from the Kings to the Pelicans, Jermaine O’Neal the season he was suspended after the brawl at the Palace, and Michael Jordan in his first season with the Wizards).But even if Ball had played enough games to qualify for All-NBA consideration, he wouldn’t have come close. His PER was the worst for any player with a 35% usage rate in NBA history. Considering his frequent absences due to injuries, it’s unclear whether Ball is still a franchise player around whom the Hornets should build, or rather a dominant ball-handler who doesn’t win games.
Chicago Bulls: 164
The Bulls have been the embodiment of NBA mediocrity for years and have the record to prove it. In the last four seasons since they added DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso to start a new era for the franchise, the Bulls have a record of 164-164. And although DeRozan, Ball, Caruso, and Zach LaVine are off the roster, they still show no signs of embarking on a true rebuild (they sought players in trades for Ball and Caruso instead of draft picks), which means they are set to finish just around .500 in 2025-26.Cleveland Cavaliers: 42%In three seasons with Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers have a regular season record of 163-83 (66% win rate), which is the third best in the NBA in that span. But in the playoffs, they have gone only 11-15 (42%).Injuries have played a role, as Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have missed at least one playoff game in that span. But Cleveland hasn’t even come close in any of their playoff losses, falling in five games in each of the last three seasons.After a 64-18 performance last season, expect many more wins in Cleveland’s regular season in 2025-26. But the Cavaliers have now reached the same point as the Milwaukee Bucks at the beginning of the decade: no matter how impressive they look in the regular season because they will have to wait until the playoffs to prove that something is different this year.Dallas Mavericks: 5For the Mavericks to take advantage of their competitive window before Kyrie Irving, 33, and Anthony Davis, 32, reach their mid-30s, they will primarily need Irving to recover from left ACL surgery this season. Only slightly secondary, however, is the need for Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 pick, at 18 on opening night, to be an immediate high-impact contributor.Flagg is one of the best NBA prospects in decades, so he certainly has that potential. But it’s a difficult task for any player with his age and experience to contribute to winning basketball, regardless of his talent. Only five teenagers have been regular starters on the perimeter for a team that made the playoffs according to Stathead: Jayson Tatum, Luol Deng, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, and Stephon Marbury. Only Tatum has done it in the last two decades.Denver Nuggets: 7There’s a fun statistic on Basketball Reference called [MVP award shares](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/nba_mvp_shares.html)MVP award shares, which measures the percentage of possible votes a player received, then sums the figure for each season. In other words, it rewards players who not only win the MVP, but do so decisively and finish high in the voting year after year.With three resounding MVP victories and two runner-up finishes in the last five seasons, Nikola Jokic is rapidly climbing this leaderboard. With his second place in 2024-25, he moved into seventh place in the history of MVP awards, surpassing Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With a similar performance in 2025-26, he would surpass Bill Russell and Magic Johnson. With two more top-level seasons, he could surpass Larry Bird and perhaps even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to move into third place of all time, only behind LeBron James and Michael Jordan.There’s a lot at stake for Denver as a team this season, as the Nuggets try to win another title after a strong summer. But there’s also a lot at stake for Jokic individually, as he continues to defend his case as one of the best players in NBA history.Detroit Pistons: 2
Even when the Pistons made a leap last season, going from 14 wins (the worst in the league) to 44 wins and a tough playoff loss, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren played together in only two games for five minutes. Due to various injuries and rotation decisions, Detroit’s four most important building blocks, all 23 or younger, essentially spent an entire season without sharing the court. Add in the number 5 pick, Ron Holland, and the quintet of recent lottery picks never played together.So, even when Detroit makes some substitutions in the veteran part of its rotation in 2025-26 (Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dennis Schroder out; Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson in), there’s still a lot for the Pistons to discover about their desired long-term core. Is Ivey’s three-point improvement in a small sample real? Can Ivey and Thompson help alleviate some of Cunningham’s heavy offensive load? Where does Holland fit after a quiet rookie season?Golden State Warriors: 47%The Warriors’ problem for most of last season was that their offense completely collapsed when Stephen Curry rested. Golden State scored only 104.2 points per 100 possessions when they had neither Curry nor Jimmy Butler III, according to Cleaning the Glass. That figure ranked in the 5th percentile of all league lineups. In comparison, Golden State was at 120.1 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile) with Curry.However, Butler’s presence solved that problem after the trade deadline. The Warriors had a perfectly respectable offensive rating of 113.9 when Butler stepped on the court without Curry, ranking in the 47th percentile. The average is fine in those circumstances, because the Warriors are so good with Curry that they only need to maintain service without him. Add a phenomenal defense, 99th percentile, in those Butler minutes without Curry, and it’s easy to see why Golden State had a 23-8 record with the third-best net rating in the league after Butler first put on the uniform.Of course, the Warriors’ offense fell apart in the second round of the playoffs when Curry got injured. But Butler was also bruised at that time.Houston Rockets: 1.21The Rockets were an excellent team in almost every aspect last season, but one weakness cost them dearly. Houston ranked 22nd in half-court scoring efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass, which was the worst of any playoff team, and proved particularly unable to get baskets in individual matchups.Houston scored 0.91 points per isolation play, according to GeniusIQ, in both the regular season and the postseason; only the Jazz, Wizards, and Raptors scored at a worse rate in their isolations. None of Houston’s perimeter players could consistently create good looks against established defenders, as Fred VanVleet (15th percentile among players with at least 100 isolations), Amen Thompson (15th percentile), and Jalen Green (12th percentile) struggled.Kevin Durant enters, who is not only better than the Rockets’ previous options, but led the entire league in isolation efficiency last season, with 1.21 points per isolation. The Rockets had a weakness and they solved it. With Durant taking control of the offense in end-game scenarios, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the West.Indiana Pacers: 13.6The Pacers’ main job this season is to position themselves to contend again when Tyrese Haliburton returns from a tear in his right Achilles tendon in 2026-27. There are two main steps to achieve this before then. First, they need to find Myles Turner’s long-term replacement at center, either Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff, or an external candidate. Second, they need to determine which of the team’s recently drafted young substitutes in the first round (Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, and Jarace Walker) is a long-term keeper.Mathurin, a former No. 6 pick, is the most intriguing option because his downhill scoring is unique on Indiana’s roster. But Mathurin hasn’t shown much development since an impressive rookie season. Both his traditional and advanced stats have been very similar in his first three NBA seasons; for example, his PER (a stat where 15 is average) has barely budged from 13.1 as a rookie to 13.0 as a sophomore to 13.6 in his third year. If Mathurin can spread his wings in Haliburton’s absence, rather than remain on this statistical plateau, it would be a major boon for the Pacers in the long run.LA Clippers: 14.5The Clippers were dominant for large stretches of last season, whenever their stars were on the court. Things changed when they rested. The Clippers were 14.5 points per 100 possessions better with center Ivica Zubac on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass, which was the third-largest margin for any player with at least 1,000 minutes (behind Nikola Jokic and Dorian Finney-Smith). Kawhi Leonard’s on/off difference was 10.5 points, which placed him in ninth place.In other words, the Clippers needed to improve their bench, and they spent the summer working on that problem. They signed Brook Lopez, a perfect substitute center for Zubac. They signed Bradley Beal and Chris Paul on cheap contracts to provide more playmaking in the backcourt. And they traded for John Collins, adding a new multi-positional dimension to the frontcourt between Zubac and Leonard. The Clippers are old and face intense competition at the top of the West, but they are a legitimate contender.Los Angeles Lakers: 4.4With Luka Doncic and LeBron James on the roster, the Lakers have access to a theoretically unstoppable play; the picks between James and a talented guard have long forced mismatches and worked wonders. However, the Lakers didn’t run many pick-and-rolls between their two main creators after last season’s highly successful trade: in the regular season, James set 3.8 picks per 100 possessions for Doncic, according to GeniusIQ, while Doncic set 0.6 for James, for a total of 4.4 picks per 100 possessions.In comparison, James and Kyrie Irving set up 15.1 picks per 100 possessions for each other during their last two seasons together in Cleveland. James and Austin Reaves have set up 11.3 per 100 for each other during their shared tenure with the Lakers.To be fair, the Lakers were adapting to a novel situation on the fly last season, and the pick-and-roll rate of the star duo increased dramatically in the playoffs, from 4.4 to 9.2 per 100 possessions (although that was almost all James setting for Doncic, rather than the other way around). As expected, it produced many points, as the Lakers averaged more than 1.2 points per play when a Doncic-James pick-and-roll led directly to a shot, foul, or turnover. But they should use it much more in 2025-26 to make the most of this unique partnership.Memphis Grizzlies: 30.5%The Grizzlies find themselves in a strange place in their competitive timeline: they took a step back this summer by trading Desmond Bane, but still have a deep and balanced roster led by a pair of well-paid stars. But they won’t make any noise in the playoffs if Ja Morant can’t fix his shaky 3-point shot.In his last three seasons plagued by injuries and suspensions, Morant has shot only 30.5% from distance, which is the worst mark among all point guards in that span (minimum 500 attempts). Throughout his career, Morant has made only 31.6% of his three-pointers, which is the second-worst among active point guards (minimum 1,000 attempts); only Russell Westbrook is less accurate. Morant has other outstanding skills, but that simply isn’t a winning formula in the modern, space-obsessed NBA.
