The 2025-26 NBA season is approaching, although there’s still time before serious postseason conversations. However, in a league known for superstar changes, surprises, and playoff battles, it’s clear that anything can happen from October to April.
Injuries will be a crucial factor in the Eastern Conference. Teams like the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers could fall in the standings due to the impact of the absences of their leaders.
In the competitive Western Conference, the positions seem less defined. Last season, the playoff qualification was not decided until the last day of the regular season. After significant moves, such as the arrival of Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets, another close competition is expected.
Here are the NBA experts’ predictions on the win-loss records of the 30 teams in the league.
Note: The NBA 2025-26 summer forecast continues Thursday with predictions for conference champions and the Finals. On Tuesday, we revealed our picks for the league’s major awards, including MVP, DPOY, and more.
The Cavaliers retain 93% of the minutes played by the team that won 64 games last season. In addition, they made two significant defensive moves in the offseason, adding Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr., and saw two rivals lose their stars (Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton) to season-ending injuries.
Despite this, the Cavs and their All-Stars, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland, are only slightly favored on ESPN BET to win the East over the Knicks. The Cavs beat the Knicks led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns four times last season and won 13 more games. New York is a formidable team, having reached the conference finals and added depth with Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele.
When it’s said that the East is “wide open”, it’s a way of expressing a lack of confidence in the Cavs. It’s not unreasonable, as they haven’t performed well in the playoffs in consecutive seasons and their core remains the same, despite the injuries.
This is reflected in our projections; the Cavs are at the top, but it’s more by default than by demand. In fact, overall, there isn’t much confidence in the relative strength of the East. Only three Eastern teams are projected to win more than 47 games. This seems impossible, as last season there were five that surpassed that mark, but especially because the elite teams of the East will end up with the easiest schedules.
But the Cavs, Knicks, and Magic have weaknesses. There’s a window for a team like Orlando, after the aggressive addition of Desmond Bane, to beat the teams at the top. The same could be said of the Hawks after their move to sign Kristaps Porzingis and add Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The panel sees both teams advancing in the East, but still not surpassing the teams at the top. – Brian Windhorst
The play-in group
Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
Boston Celtics: 43-39
Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
Miami Heat: 39-43
Indiana Pacers: 39-43
If the landscape of the East has changed, it is largely due to injuries and star departures. Three Achilles tears during last season’s playoffs have drastically altered the trajectory of the Bucks, who parted ways with Damian Lillard after his injury in the first round; the Celtics, who dismantled their championship core after Tatum suffered the same injury in the second round; and the Pacers, whose promising future was affected when Haliburton tore his Achilles tendon during the NBA Finals. That’s why those three teams, all recent conference winners, are projected to be in the middle of the table, fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.
The Heat won the Eastern Finals two years ago, but after the trade of Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. Philadelphia could be the most difficult team to predict, given the uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid’s health. The teams in this group begin the season with significant questions that place them below the elite teams in this conference. – Jamal CollierEl contenido de la imagen no se puede mostrar.The last five
Chicago Bulls: 36-46
Toronto Raptors: 33-49
Charlotte Hornets: 26-56
Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
Washington Wizards: 20-62
After falling to the bottom of the Eastern standings, these five teams can be divided into three different groups.
First, there’s the team with the potential to move up to the play-in group: the Raptors. Toronto didn’t trade Brandon Ingram last spring and instead gave him a nine-figure extension. Teams that are in the luxury tax don’t expect to be at the bottom of the standings. If Toronto is eliminated from playoff contention, it will be a big disappointment.
Then, there are two teams at a crossroads: the Bulls and the Hornets. Both have talented players approaching their prime (Josh Giddey and Coby White in Chicago, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in Charlotte); some long-term building blocks (Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue, Tidjane Salaun and Kon Knueppel) and rosters that could end up fighting for a play-in spot or a place near the top of the lottery.
And then there are the Nets and the Wizards, for whom there is no ambiguity. These two teams hope to finish in the top four of the 2026 NBA draft, which promises to have a group full of prospects. This season, they will play with many young players, make future asset trades, and focus on, hopefully, a different result in the lottery next May. – Tim Bontemps
Western Conference
The Contenders
Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
Houston Rockets: 54-28
Denver Nuggets: 53-29
Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
LA Clippers: 50-32
Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32
Get used to hearing this: the Thunder are the clear favorites in the West. Fresh off becoming the youngest NBA champion team in nearly five decades, Oklahoma City has as much continuity as any defending champion, as their entire extended rotation returns intact. The reigning scoring champion, MVP, and Finals MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is in his prime, and supporting stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are rising talents who just signed extensions to their rookie contracts. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Thunder flirt with the 70-win mark again. The Rockets were a surprise last season, rising to second in the West before falling in the first round of the playoffs. Houston addressed the hole in their roster, a go-to player, by trading for future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant without compromising hopes of having a long run as a contender.
The Nuggets also addressed an obvious need by strengthening their bench, creating the financial flexibility to add depth by trading Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, a possible upgrade at forward. After taking the Thunder to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals, Denver is determined to give three-time MVP Nikola Jokic a real chance to win another ring. The Lakers are arguably the most intriguing team in the West, as they transition into the Luka Doncic era with the all-time leading scorer, LeBron James, still on the roster and in the spotlight. – Tim MacMahonEl contenido de la imagen no se puede mostrar.
The play-in group
Golden State Warriors: 48-34
Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40
The West is so full of contenders that a couple of them will inevitably be pushed into this group, forced to play an extra game or two with their playoff hopes on the line. That’s particularly dangerous for older teams like the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely spend the last month of the season in a full-on position race and won’t have the extra week of rest before the playoffs that the top teams get.
However, two teams will still come out of the play-in. The seventh-seeded Warriors beat the second-seeded Rockets in the first round last April. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Draymond Green are healthy, the top two seeds in the West won’t be euphoric to see the Warriors emerge from the seventh or eighth spot this spring. The same goes for the Mavericks if Kyrie Irving returns in time from his ACL tear. When the regular season ends, it will have been 13 months since his injury.
The other two teams in this group, the Spurs and the Grizzlies, seem to be heading in different directions. San Antonio is entering the third season of its patient rebuild around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs won 22 and 34 games in their first two seasons. This season, our projections anticipate they will make a bigger jump to the 40s. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies traded one of their core players this summer (Desmond Bane) for a package of draft picks, a move that could mean the franchise is preparing for a setback. – Anthony SlaterEl contenido de la imagen no se puede mostrar.
The Blazers have a new owner on the way, Damian Lillard is back, and Yang Hansen is an intriguing rookie for a team working to be a contender. Although head coach Chauncey Billups will have his team compete with the new addition Jrue Holiday, the Blazers’ prospects look brighter when looking beyond this season. The West has only gotten better, and Lillard is out for the season. Portland has young talent in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe, and prospects to develop like Donovan Clingan. But if the Blazers are going to compete for a play-in or playoff spot, they will need Scoot Henderson to realize the potential that made him the third pick in 2023.
Sacramento will have a full season under new coach Doug Christie, who will try to get the best out of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan with Dennis Schroder at point guard. With Kevin Durant now in Houston and Bradley Beal in Los Angeles, Phoenix has begun its rebuild around Devin Booker and a host of big players. New Orleans added Jordan Poole and Jeremiah Fears and still has Zion Williamson. But can Williamson stay healthy? Completing the bottom five, Utah’s forever rebuild continues with new addition Ace Bailey, but the Jazz seem destined to finish in the basement of the West once again. – Ohm Youngmisuk
