NBA 2025-26: Contender Analysis, How to Stay in the Playoff Hunt?

The 2025-26 NBA season has started over a month ago, allowing us to get a glimpse of how the teams are positioned in their respective conferences. The Oklahoma City Thunder, the current NBA champions, lead the Western Conference with a near-perfect record of 16-1. In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons have experienced a surprising rise, while teams with title aspirations have had a complicated start. Although the season is in its early stages, the initial game already reveals strengths and weaknesses. We analyze the teams with title aspirations in both conferences, answering the most important questions for each and evaluating what they need to stay in contention. These teams were selected for having at least a 1.5% chance of reaching the finals according to BPI.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have exceeded expectations without Trae Young. The key question is: How will the team adapt with his return? Surprisingly, since Young’s injury on October 29th, the Hawks have played the style that coach Quin Snyder preached: ball movement, penetration and spacing, cuts, ball sharing, and defense. Jalen Johnson has played like a rising star and other players have stepped up. Role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker have been exceptional, with a 9-4 record without Young. The team was trying to develop chemistry in the first five games that Young played with players like Kristaps Porzingis, Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard. Now, the Hawks have begun to form an identity in Young’s absence, and it will take time to develop cohesion when he returns. Young could return in mid-December, so they have time to find their rhythm with the full team. This period without Young will only strengthen the Hawks. – Ohm Youngmisuk

Boston Celtics

What is the goal for this season? Anyone who thinks this Celtics team is a real threat in the East could see the team’s flaws in the home loss to the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA Cup. After trading Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, letting Al Horford and Luke Kornet become free agents, and with Jayson Tatum out with a ruptured Achilles tendon, no one should expect much from Boston. The real question in Boston is whether the Celtics will remain committed to trying to make the playoffs this season, or whether, on the contrary, they will focus on the future and avoid the luxury tax. For the next few seasons, resetting the repeater clock would be a wise decision for Boston, and the Celtics are currently exceeding that by about $12 million, although with a $27 million expiring salary in Anfernee Simons, they are a couple of moves away from potentially avoiding it. Either way, that, plus whether we will see Tatum at some point before the end of the season, will dominate the discussion about the Celtics from now until next spring. – Tim Bontemps

Cleveland Cavaliers

Will the Cavaliers be able to return to their elite offense? The Cavs were the number 1 seed in the East last year, largely thanks to an elite offense that was the best in the NBA in efficiency. This year, Cleveland ranks outside the top 10 offensive teams, still solid, but far from the prolific offense that carried the team last season. The Cavs are still shooting threes, but they’re making them at a much lower rate (35.1%) than the league-leading one last year. They haven’t been able to generate as many shots at the rim or get into the paint as often, which has led to an offense with much less ball movement. Donovan Mitchell has had to take on a larger share of the offense, averaging 20.3 field goal attempts per game, numbers more in line with his days in Utah than with the averages in Cleveland. The Cavs have had Darius Garland, their starting point guard, in only three games this season due to a toe injury. His incorporation into the rotation will certainly help, but the offense still has some problems that it can solve without him to start flowing like it did in its heyday last season. – Jamal Collier

Detroit Pistons

How will J.B. Bickerstaff incorporate all his returning players into a rotation that has been working well?

Sounds like rich people problems, but with Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, and Jaden Ivey out for long periods, players like Daniss Jenkins, Javonte Green, and veteran Paul Reed have done more than admirably fill in; they’ve intertwined themselves into the culture and earned playing time to continue. The Pistons’ defense is in the top three in many important metrics (defensive rating, defensive field goal percentage, and fewest assists), and Bickerstaff has to walk the fine line of maintaining the good vibes while bringing back his pillars, especially Ivey, who made his season debut on Saturday.

Bickerstaff played 12 when the game was in dispute against Milwaukee. Can he maintain that and put enough shooting on the court for a team that ranks 21st in 3-point shooting? – Vincent C. Goodwill

Miami Heat

Is Miami’s new offense working as intended? Following in the footsteps of the 2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies, the Heat has revamped its offensive approach. They are unlike any other team in the NBA: Miami is setting only 15.4 screens per 100 possessions, according to GeniusIQ; for reference, the previous minimum for any team in any season in the tracking era (since 2013-14) was 37.9 screens by the 2018-19 76ers. This unorthodox style has boosted Miami’s scoring, but only slightly. Excluding garbage time, the Heat ranked 25th, 21st, and 21st in offensive efficiency, and they are 13th in 2025-26. Individual players like Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have adapted to the new system with aplomb, but overall, the Heat remains only an average offensive team, which is not good enough to compete for a title when Miami is not a defensive juggernaut. The imminent return of Tyler Herro could help, if he can fit perfectly into the screenless offense. (Herro led the Heat with 35 screens per 100 possessions last season). Bam Adebayo has also missed almost half of Miami’s games. So, while the innovative system could take Miami to a top-tier offense, more star power seems necessary to complete that journey. – Zach Kram

New York Knicks

How will the Knicks handle the absence of OG Anunoby? Another week will pass before Anunoby is evaluated for his hamstring injury, and given Anunoby’s injury history (playing more than 70 games only twice in eight seasons), it seems that being cautious will be the smartest thing here. Meanwhile, head coach Mike Brown has to find a way to unlock Karl-Anthony Towns. He doesn’t seem to fit into the offense so far, and the numbers prove it. He’s shooting 10 percentage points below his career average and a career-low 31.7% from the 3-point range. It’s such a small sample size that it might be too early to panic, but it’s notable, especially with how the Knicks struggle defensively without Anunoby. On Saturday, Orlando feasted all over the court, and the Knicks didn’t look good on defense when they played with Towns and Mitchell Robinson together. New York is a middle-of-the-pack team on defense with a road win. It’s getting a little late in Gotham. – Goodwill

Orlando Magic

Can the Magic increase their shooting to match their elite defense for a deep playoff run?

After a slow start to the season, the Magic have seemingly found their rhythm and defensive identity. They have won 9 of their last 13, even with Paolo Banchero missing the last six games due to a groin injury. Defensively, the Magic are still trying to regain the level they defended at last season when they finished with the second-best defensive rating. And the Magic are playing faster with coach Jamahl Mosley emphasizing running after stops and pushing when they can. But shooting remains a question mark. While their 3-point shooting has slightly improved, from last place at 31.8% last season to 35.4% this season, they need to shoot better. Orlando paid a high price to get Desmond Bane to address this area, betting that he will increase their 3-point shooting percentage to his career average of 40.7%. But, will his presence open up more space for Banchero and Franz Wagner to operate? And can Banchero and Wagner improve their 3-point shooting to get the Magic out of the first round? Wendell Carter Jr. and Tristan da Silva have shot over 40% from 3, which helps. But if Orlando wants to make noise in the postseason, Bane, Banchero, and Wagner have to increase their 3-point shooting to give Orlando’s elite defense the help it needs. – Youngmisuk

Philadelphia 76ers

Can Joel Embiid and Paul George stay healthy?

A year ago, Philadelphia was seen as a team worthy of being a title contender. But after the disaster that was last season, simply making the playoffs will be a true success story for the 76ers this time. It’s been an energetic start to the season, with Philadelphia jumping to a 9-7 start after Thursday’s overtime win in Milwaukee. But for this team to have any chance of being a real threat to make noise in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, it will need both George and Embiid to be available in the final stretch and in the playoffs. The early returns for George, who made his season debut last week after offseason knee surgery, are encouraging after he had 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in 25 minutes in Milwaukee. Embiid’s play has been uneven before he missed time with right knee soreness, with his mobility away from the basket defensively, the biggest sign that he’s still not fully confident in his surgically repaired left knee. But if the two can play and be reasonably effective alongside the perimeter trio of Tyrese Maxey, rookie VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes, the Sixers can talk themselves into being energized given the soft nature of the top of the conference. – Bontemps

Toronto Raptors

What is the most important factor driving the Raptors to their good start? Surprisingly, it’s their depth. Toronto has five well-known and highly-paid players, but the starting lineup they comprise has outscored their opponents by only 5 points per 100 possessions, a decent but not spectacular performance. As expected, the skills of Toronto’s starters don’t fit perfectly. However, the Raptors are thriving when the substitutes Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Jamal Shead, and Sandro Mamukelashvili are on the court, as coach Darko Rajakovic can mix and match his lineups to ensure a proper balance on both ends at all times. Of the 27 Raptors duos with at least 100 minutes together, the top 10 involve Dick or Mamukelashvili, while the more stellar pairings of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, and Ingram and RJ Barrett, have actually been outplayed on the year. That dynamic raises questions about Toronto’s ceiling in the playoffs, when rotations usually get tightened. But for now, at least, there’s no reason to expect the Raptors’ role players to stop driving wins. – Kram

Western Conference

Denver Nuggets

Can Cameron Johnson join the party? The Nuggets are shaping up to be one of the biggest threats to the defending champion Thunder even though their biggest offseason addition is facing an extended absence to start the season. Denver ranks second in the league in offensive efficiency (121.9 points per 100 possessions) and third in net rating (plus 9.7) despite Johnson averaging only 9.4 points per game while shooting 33.3% from 3-point range, which is nearly 10% points below his career norm. Johnson’s production since a one-game absence to rest a right biceps strain has been encouraging. He averaged 14.5 points in his last two games, hitting 9 of 17 field goals and 5 of 8 from 3-point range. The Nuggets especially need Johnson to perform up to his standard with Christian Braun out for at least six weeks due to a sprained ankle. – Tim MacMahon

Golden State Warriors

Will producing a smoother travel schedule yield more consistent results?

Steve Kerr has a statistic he’s been tracking and continuously citing recently. In 18 games, the Warriors are 8-1 when they win the turnover battle and 1-8 when they lose it. Kerr believes that if the Warriors want to return to the 23-8 version that ran to the playoffs after the Jimmy Butler III trade last February, the most important key is better ball security more consistently.

The Warriors are hoping that a lighter schedule and more practices will produce a sharper focus, rested bodies, and therefore fewer turnovers. They have played a total of 17 games, 12 road games and five back-to-backs in the opening month, the most in the NBA. But there’s always a payoff for that. Their next four are at home and they have eight straight in San Francisco in January. The bottom of the Western Conference has been surprisingly forgiving. Their 9-9 record has them in eighth place. But this is an older team that intends to get a top-six seed. To move up to safety, they can’t hover around .500 all season. – Anthony Slater

Houston Rockets

Can Houston maintain this level of offensive production? The Rockets can not only maintain their offensive production level, but there is a good possibility that they will improve because the starting group has not been together for long, and the supporting cast is still adapting to playing alongside star forward Kevin Durant. Remember, Houston lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet just before the start of training camp to a season-ending injury, forcing the Rockets to use a committee approach to facilitate the offense. It has worked well with Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Durant handling the main ball-handling responsibilities. In addition, Durant has empowered his teammates to find their individual roles. Sengun is transforming into a superstar offensive center. Thompson is wreaking havoc from the dunk spot. Jabari Smith Jr. is connecting a career-high 39.5% from the 3-point range, while Reed Sheppard continues to prove he is the long-range shooter everyone expected, connecting 48.8% from the range. Houston’s big men need to stay healthy to maintain the team’s rebounding dominance. Houston has strung together two 5-game winning streaks, and has scored more than 20 second-chance points in eight games, the most in the NBA, according to ESPN Research. Essentially, the Rockets have powered their way to the league’s best offense, and that style should be effective in the postseason. – Michael C. Wright

Los Angeles Lakers

Can the Lakers’ high-powered offense mask their defensive deficiencies? L.A. hit its stride last season in January and February, going 19-7 and ranking in the top five in the league in defensive efficiency, as the team not only went through a franchise transformation with the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, but developed a defensive-minded identity on the fly. So far this season, they have regressed significantly, ranking 14th in defensive rating per game, allowing a whopping 10.1 more points per 100 possessions than the league leaders, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

However, the offense, orchestrated by a triple-threat trio in Doncic, Austin Reaves, and now, LeBron James, could be what the Lakers put on this season. At least for now. The Lakers are second in the league in true shooting percentage (61.5%) and are second in both free throw attempts per game (29) and free throw percentage in clutch situations (87.5%) this season, all signs that they can get what they want on offense when they want it. In Tuesday’s victory over Utah, the first game of the entire season in which L.A. had all the players on their 14-man roster healthy and available, the Lakers scored a season-high 140 points and shot 60% as a team while accumulating 31 assists.

As James works to catch his breath after a long period of inactivity due to sciatica and coach JJ Redick tinkers with his optimal rotation now that he has all the players at his disposal, leaning on the offense could be the Lakers’ best option to keep winning. – Dave McMenamin

Minnesota Timberwolves

Can the Timberwolves replace Nickeil Alexander-Walker internally?

The depth was an advantage for Minnesota en route to consecutive conference finals appearances, but losing Alexander-Walker has turned it into a weakness. Despite getting 13.1 PPG off the bench from former Sixth Man of the Year winner Naz Reid, Minnesota ranks 28th in both minutes and points per game from the bench, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Given the Timberwolves’ depleted draft assets, developing a replacement for Alexander-Walker is critical. So far, 2024 first-round picks Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. (currently sidelined by a bone bruise in the left foot) are shooting below 40% effective field goal percentage, limiting their playing time. The closest thing Minnesota has to an internal solution is 2023 second-round pick Jaylen Clark, a strong perimeter defender who has played the most minutes of the Wolves’ young guards (16.5 per game) and has shot 9 of 25 (36%) from 3. If opponents don’t respect Clark’s shot, it will be difficult to keep him on the court in the crucible of the playoffs. – Kevin Pelton

Oklahoma City Thunder