Starting next weekend at the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta, the NASCAR Cup Series joins the trend of other sports leagues, such as European soccer and the NBA, by launching its own in-season tournament to add more excitement to the schedule.
The seeding for the In-Season Challenge inaugural was based on a series of three races (Michigan, Mexico City, and Pocono), using a combination of best positions and points earned. Now, 32 drivers are set to compete in a single-elimination bracket, facing off head-to-head until one is crowned champion and takes home a $1 million prize.
This guide will help you understand the chart, the favorites, those with little chance, and the winners or losers of the qualifying process. For this, an updated version of the Cup Series playoff prediction model was used, which simulates the tournament 2,000 times to estimate the probabilities of each driver to advance.
Favorites
William Byron, despite being ranked 18th due to low results in two of the three qualifying races, has been the best Cup driver this season, leading the standings and the Driver Rating average, making him the biggest threat to win. He is expected to be the favorite in each stage until the final.
Others with good chances are Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson. Hamlin and Elliott have the best opportunities to reach the Sweet 16, with favorable matchups in the first round. Elliott also has the best chance of reaching the Elite 8.From left to right, Chase Elliott and William Byron are two Cup drivers to watch as NASCAR launches into its first in-season tournament.Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Cinderellas
Byron, despite his position in the standings, has the best odds of reaching and/or winning the championship. Logano and Tyler Reddick also have good chances, although the latter would have to face Larson and Blaney. Ty Gibbs is an option to consider, with favorable matchups that could take him to the Round of 8.
The Aspirants
Cindric, Allmendinger, Busch, and Keselowski are known for their performance on speedways or road courses, which could lead them to advance in the tournament.
The “Spoilers”
Keselowski, Reddick, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar could be the ones to ruin the favorites’ hopes. Reddick has a great opportunity to eliminate Larson, while Jones and Hocevar could surprise Ross Chastain and Blaney, respectively.
Logano could complicate things for Bubba Wallace in the second round, and McDowell could defeat Gibbs in a matchup. Briscoe could turn Byron into a disappointment if he performs well in Chicago.
The Challenges
Preece, Bowman, and Smith are some of the drivers facing challenges due to the classification. Preece faces Byron, the classification leader, and Bowman faces Logano. Smith could be the underdog against Cindric, and Nemechek faces Berry.
Chastain, Blaney, and Larson could struggle. Chastain has weaknesses on speed circuits, and Blaney and Larson face difficult opponents in the first round.
With its chaotic classification and the different types of circuits, the new In-Season Challenge promises to be as wild and experimental as anything NASCAR has tried in years.
