National League Contenders Analysis: Overreactions?
The weekend left us with strong emotions in baseball. The
Milwaukee Brewers continued their winning streak, until they finally lost. The
New York Mets, on the other hand, went through a losing streak that culminated in a victory. The
Los Angeles Dodgers made a strong statement, while the
Philadelphia Phillies suffered a significant loss. The
Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats are still cold. Let’s analyze whether the fans’ reactions are justified or exaggerated.
Are the Brewers the Best Team in MLB?
The Brewers’ streak of 14 consecutive wins and 29 wins in 33 games deserves attention. They became the eleventh team this century to achieve 14 straight wins. Of the previous ten teams to achieve this, all reached the playoffs, and four won 100 games. However, none won the World Series.
The Brewers have demonstrated exceptional performance in various areas: starting pitching, relief pitching, offense, defense, and base running. Although none of their position players were All-Stars, their lineup usually features eight average or above-average hitters. Players like Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn have been in good form, which reinforces their potential.
According to Clay Davenport’s “wins and losses” analysis, the Brewers compete closely with the Cubs. The Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than expected according to the statistics. They lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position, and hold their opponents to the third-lowest average in the same situation.
Considering that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in their rotation, in addition to being the best team in base running, they are expected to add additional runs. They have shown good performance against strong teams, which suggests that they are the most complete team in the majors, especially if Yelich and Vaughn continue to contribute power in the middle of the batting order.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers appear to be the most complete team in the majors, and they are on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team right now.
Pete Crow-Armstrong performed well at the end of July, but then went into a slump in August. His poor performance could be related to his aggressive playing style, as he tends to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Although he has improved his chase rate in August, this has not translated into success.
It’s important to consider that Crow-Armstrong has struggled against left-handed pitchers. For the Cubs to improve, they need the whole team to regain their level of play. They have won few games in their recent series.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. It is reasonable to assume that their performance will not be the same as in previous months.
Are the Mets doomed to miss the playoffs?
After a series of sweeps and losing streaks, the Mets have fallen in the standings and are in danger of missing the playoffs despite having the highest payroll in the league.
Despite concerns about the bullpen and the difficulties of some players, the team still has talent. FanGraphs’ odds indicate that the Mets have a high probability of reaching the postseason. However, the Reds are ahead of them in the season series, which could be a key factor if they end up with the same record.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Although there are concerns, the team is still favored to reach at least a wild card.
Is Zack Wheeler’s absence a big problem for the Phillies?
Zack Wheeler’s injury, which will sideline him due to a blood clot, raises uncertainty about his availability for the rest of the season. Depth in the rotation is a key factor, but there are other issues to consider.
Ranger Suarez, Aaron Nola, and Taijuan Walker have had variable performances. The situation in the rotation, along with the uncertainty about Wheeler’s return, could affect the Phillies’ performance.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Although reaching the playoffs seems certain, Wheeler’s injury could affect the team’s performance in crucial moments. The offense must also improve to ensure success.
Did the Dodgers dominate the Padres with their sweep?
The Dodgers swept the Padres in a key series, showcasing a good performance on the mound and a home run by Mookie Betts. With a stellar rotation, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers could be on their way to their 12th division title in 13 seasons.
However, the Dodgers’ bullpen still faces injury problems, and key players like Mookie Betts are not at their best. Injuries have forced the use of players in the infield. The final series against the Padres will be crucial to assess the true potential of the Dodgers.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. A great series doesn’t guarantee the Dodgers are fully recovered. The team’s situation should be evaluated after the final series against the Padres.
