MLB 2025 Prediction Analysis: How Close Were We?
Every year, at Alofoke Deportes, we venture to predict the future of MLB. We don’t seek outlandish predictions, but rather realistic forecasts for the season. Now, we will review those 2025 predictions to see how well we did and, incidentally, anticipate the future of the league.Pittsburgh Pirates
The prediction: Paul Skenes would win the Cy Young award and have the best season for a Pirates pitcher since 1920.
Result: Total hit! Skenes won the Cy Young, led the Pirates pitchers in WAR, and had the lowest ERA since 1920. An outstanding performance.
Rating: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: Although it will be difficult to surpass the numbers from 2025 (7.7 WAR and 1.97 ERA), Skenes has the potential. He could improve on his 187⅔ innings, considering the Pirates limited him. With more starts and better pitch management, a 9 or 10 WAR season is possible.Seattle Mariners
The prediction: Bryan Woo would be the best starter for the Mariners.
Result: Correct! Woo had an outstanding season with 15-7, 2.94 ERA and 4.2 WAR, surpassing Gilbert and Castillo. In addition, he set a record with at least six innings in each of his first 25 starts. Unfortunately, a pectoral muscle injury sidelined him from the playoffs.
Rating: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: The Mariners will seek to reach the World Series. With the health of Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller, and another great season from Woo, the rotation could be among the best in the league.Cleveland Guardians
The prediction: Gavin Williams would lead the rotation in ERA and WAR.
Result: Another hit! Williams finished with 12-5, 3.06 ERA and 3.8 WAR, leading the team in both categories.
Rating: A+
Looking ahead to 2026: Williams had a breakout season, with an excellent curveball. If he can reduce walks (led the league with 83), he could improve even more.Detroit Tigers
The prediction: Riley Greene would become the tenth Tigers outfielder to hit 30 home runs and would make consecutive All-Star Game appearances.
Result: Correct! Greene hit 36 home runs and was selected for the All-Star Game. However, his WAR decreased due to less favorable defensive metrics and a decrease in his OBP.
Rating: A
Looking ahead to 2026: Greene needs to regain his level as a complete player, as his performance in the second half and in high-pressure situations diminished.Boston Red Sox
The prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Jarren Duran would win Gold Gloves.
Result: Close. Rafaela and Abreu won Gold Gloves, but Steven Kwan of Cleveland won in left field.
Rating: B+
Looking ahead to 2026: Roman Anthony, a standout rookie, will play daily. The Red Sox could rotate the four outfielders in the designated hitter role, although they also have Masataka Yoshida. This could lead to a possible trade in the offseason.New York Mets
The prediction: Juan Soto would set a club record in OPS, and Pete Alonso would break his own RBI record.
Result: Soto did not reach Piazza’s record, but was a finalist for MVP. Alonso improved his RBIs, but did not break his own record.
Rating: B
Looking ahead to 2026: Alonso is a free agent and will seek a larger contract. The Mets’ management could focus on strengthening the pitching staff.Arizona Diamondbacks
The prediction: Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte would finish in the top 10 in MVP voting and the Diamondbacks would lead the league in runs scored.
Result: The Diamondbacks had two players in the top 10 MVP voting, but one was Geraldo Perdomo. Arizona finished sixth in runs scored.
Rating: B
Looking ahead to 2026: Faced with the need to reinforce the rotation and bullpen, Marte’s name has come up in trade rumors.Texas Rangers
The prediction: Wyatt Langford would have a 30/30 season and be in the top 10 in the MVP voting.
Result: Langford didn’t reach the 30/30 numbers, but finished with a WAR of 5.6, in the top 10 of the American League.
Rating: B-
Looking ahead to 2026: If Langford can play more games and Globe Life Field is again a neutral park, the 30/30 could be a possibility. Reducing strikeouts would also be key.Los Angeles Angels
The prediction: The Angels would have six hitters with 20 home runs… but they would lose 95 games.
Result: The Angels hit many home runs, but only four players reached 20. They lost 90 games.
Rating: B-
Looking ahead to 2026: They need to diversify their offense, as they led the league in strikeouts and had the worst batting average. There’s not much help on the way from the minors. We’ll have to see what happens in free agency.Chicago Cubs
The prediction: Kyle Tucker would hit 40 home runs, steal 30 bases, and finish second in the MVP voting.
Result: Tucker suffered a broken hand and a calf strain, which affected his production. He finished with 22 home runs and 23 stolen bases.
Rating: C+
Looking ahead to 2026: Tucker is a free agent and could get a big contract. The Cubs have young options in the outfield and need to bolster their rotation.Kansas City Royals
The prediction: Vinnie Pasquantino would hit .300 with 25 home runs and be selected for the All-Star Game.
Result: Pasquantino had his best season, but he wasn’t selected for the All-Star Game.
Rating: C+
Looking ahead to 2026: Pasquantino has become a hitter who looks for the ball at a specific point, and although he avoids strikeouts, he is unlikely to reach .300. His defensive metrics are weak, but he could be the second-best first baseman in the American League.Philadelphia Phillies
The prediction: The five starters would pitch at least 162 innings and finish with an ERA below 3.50.
Result: No pitcher met both criteria. The Phillies’ rotation led the league in FanGraphs WAR and was second in ERA.
Rating: C
Looking ahead to 2026: The rotation is in a state of change. Suarez is a free agent, Wheeler will try to recover from surgery, and Nola will need to bounce back.Atlanta Braves
The prediction: Spencer Schwellenbach would finish in the top five in the Cy Young voting.
Result: Schwellenbach was injured and couldn’t keep up.
Rating: C
Looking ahead to 2026: With Schwellenbach, Sale, and Strider recovered, the rotation could lead the Braves back to the playoffs.Houston Astros
The prediction: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Spencer Arrighetti would win a combined 45 games and accumulate 13 WAR.
Result: Two out of three. Brown and Valdez had good seasons, but Arrighetti got injured.
Rating: C-
Looking ahead to 2026: Valdez is a free agent. The Astros could depend on Arrighetti, Javier, and McCullers Jr.Oakland Athletics
The prediction: Brent Rooker would hit 53 home runs and surpass Aaron Judge for the home run title.
Result: Rooker hit 30 home runs.
Rating: C-
Looking ahead to 2026: Kurtz could be a key player for the team.Washington Nationals
The prediction: CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. would hit 25 home runs each.
Result: Abrams hit 19 home runs and Garcia 16.
Rating: D+
Looking ahead to 2026: The Nationals might need a new approach with a new coaching staff.Miami Marlins
The prediction: The Marlins would quickly fall out of contention and Sandy Alcantara would be traded.
Result: The Marlins got off to a bad start, but Alcantara was not traded.
Rating: D+
Looking towards 2026: Alcantara could be changed.Chicago White Sox
The prediction: The White Sox would lose 110 games.
Result: The White Sox lost 102 games.
Rating: D+
Looking ahead to 2026: The White Sox hope Robert Jr. regains his form.Milwaukee Brewers
The prediction: Jackson Chourio would finish with an OPS of .900.
Result: Chourio had an OPS of .770.
Rating: D
Looking ahead to 2026: Chourio needs to improve his chase rate on pitches.Cincinnati Reds
The prediction: Elly De La Cruz would hit 30 home runs, steal 80 bases, and finish in the top five in MVP voting.
Result: De La Cruz had a disappointing season.
Rating: D
Looking towards 2026: De La Cruz needs to regain his level.San Diego Padres
The prediction: Michael King would win 20 games.
Result: King was injured.
Rating: D
Looking ahead to 2026: The Padres’ rotation will need a rebuild.Colorado Rockies
The prediction: The Rockies would have two All-Stars.
Result: The Rockies had an All-Star.
Rating: D
Looking ahead to 2026: It’s unlikely the Rockies will have two All-Stars.St. Louis Cardinals
The prediction: The Cardinals would remain in contention until the last week, with four rookies in the rotation.
Result: The Cardinals did not have a significant impact from the rookies.
Rating: D-
Looking towards 2026: Rotation will need help.Baltimore Orioles
The prediction: Samuel Basallo would be the regular designated hitter in the second half and hit 15 home runs.
Result: Basallo fought in the majors.
Rating: D-
Looking ahead to 2026: Basallo remains an important prospect.New York Yankees
The prediction: The Yankees would finish with a losing record.
Result: The Yankees did not have a losing season.
Rating: F
Looking ahead to 2026: The Yankees’ season was better than expected.
