New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their aspirations in the World Test Championship (WTC), opening up the possibility of reaching the final to be played at Lord’s in June 2021.
New Zealand was very close to the top spot in the Test rankings, finishing just 0.086 points behind Australia after their victory in Wellington.
However, the situation was not without controversy. After the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top, generating confusion. The ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia leads with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375. The prediction tool later reflected this ranking.
Australia could consolidate its lead if it wins the home series against India. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 points in the WTC, coming from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will add 420 points from five series.
This implies that India will need five wins (or four wins and three draws) in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will maintain the lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will drop to 70.
Australia also has a series of three Test matches scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins both Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.
When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each Test victory for India will be worth 30 points, and draws will contribute 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will put them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, Australia could extend its lead in first place or concede ground to New Zealand, depending on the results of the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series.
