New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has positioned them favorably to reach the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
Following their triumph in Wellington, New Zealand moved to within a short distance of first place in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia.
However, the situation was not without some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated uncertainty in the cricket community. This error was later corrected, when the ICC clarified that Australia occupied first place with 116.461 ranking points, while New Zealand had 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its advantage if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points, accumulated in four series during the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their season, they will finish with 420 points in five series.
This would mean that India would need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final.
In normal circumstances, New Zealand would also have had to add points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will drop to 70%. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.
When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series, with a total of 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each remaining victory for India in the Tests will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, would ensure they surpass New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India versus Australia and New Zealand versus Pakistan series unfold, Australia could consolidate its lead in first place or concede ground to New Zealand.
