New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their aspirations of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand came close to reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, placing just 0.086 points behind Australia after their victory in Wellington.
The excitement was not without drama. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top, generating some confusion. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia maintained first place with 116.461 points, while New Zealand had 116.375. Subsequently, the tool reflected this ranking.
Australia could consolidate its leadership position if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points in four series within the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points in five series.
This would leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. However, due to the impossibility of playing some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins both matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points disputed.
When India, which currently has 360 points in four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series, or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will put them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
