New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was on the verge of reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, finishing just 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated doubts in the cricket community. This error was later corrected, and the ICC clarified that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could cement its leadership if it wins the home series against India. On the other hand, the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points, accumulated in four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, at the end of their summer, they will finish with 420 points in five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the absolute points qualification criteria to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points contested.
When India, which currently has 360 points in four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
