New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was a step away from the number 1 position in the Test rankings, only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which raised doubts in the cricket community. The ICC clarified via a tweet that Australia is in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could increase their lead if they win the home series against India. Two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-match test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points contested.By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will give them an advantage over New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
