The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has boosted their aspirations of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will take place in June 2021 at Lord’s.New Zealand came very close to reaching the top spot in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.The situation generated some initial confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top of the table. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia held first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand had 116.375. The prediction tool eventually reflected this ranking.Australia will look to consolidate their lead in the home series against India. On the other hand, New Zealand’s two wins over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later, they will finish with 420 points from five series.This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Tests (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the absolute points classification criteria to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70.
Australia also has a series of three Tests scheduled in South Africa.If New Zealand wins both Tests against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points at stake.When India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will take them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
