The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has strengthened their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.New Zealand was very close to first place in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated debate in the cricket community. This error was later corrected, and the ICC clarified that Australia holds the first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will end up with 420 points from five series.This will force India to secure five victories (or four victories and three draws) in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.Due to the global situation, the ICC had to modify the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points disputed.Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70.Australia also has a series of three Tests scheduled in South Africa.If New Zealand wins its two matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will give them an advantage over New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
