New Zealand’s resounding victory over the West Indies has boosted their aspirations of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was very close to first place in the Test ranking, only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was not without controversy. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top, generating confusion. The ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia was leading with 116.461 points, while New Zealand had 116.375. Subsequently, the predictor reflected this ranking. Australia could consolidate its advantage if it wins the home series against India. For its part, the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to add points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to percentage of points played. Australia currently leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a series of three test matches scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.
When India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of its remaining victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
