Since the NHL adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, 77% of the teams that were in playoff position on Thanksgiving managed to qualify for the Stanley Cup (excluding the two seasons affected by COVID-19), according to studies. In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams remained in playoff positions at the end of the season. There have never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 teams in playoff positions on Thanksgiving that ultimately qualified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, there are always teams that, being out, manage to get in. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens, the Ottawa Senators, the St. Louis Blues, and the Edmonton Oilers, were not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving, but managed to reach the postseason. In the last 10 non-COVID seasons, the teams that managed to enter the postseason after being out at Thanksgiving were 2.8 points away from qualifying.<\/p>\n\n\nIt’s time to analyze the NHL’s “Thanksgiving Panic Index”, starting with the teams that have the least to worry about.\n\n\n
Colorado Avalanche<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\nThey have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing the fewest (2.18 goals against per game), the path to victory seems clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24th, suffering seems extinguished.\n\nStathletes gives the Avalanche the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.\n\n\n Carolina Hurricanes<\/strong> Minnesota Wild<\/strong>Zero Panic<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\nDallas Stars<\/strong>
\nTampa Bay Lightning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\nThese three teams are where many expected them to be.\n\nThe Lightning lead the Atlantic Division, despite injuries and concerns about their production, especially with Brayden Point. Perhaps this only reflects the overall quality of the Atlantic Division.\n\nThe Hurricanes have a goal difference similar to that of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus 12), but this time their offense outperforms their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin in almost every game.\n\nThe Stars are holding strong despite injuries to players like Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in large part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals), and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio that scored approximately 49% of the team’s goals in 22 games.\n\nWorried, but Relatively Satisfied<\/h3>\n\n\n
\nNew York Islanders<\/strong>
\nPhiladelphia Flyers<\/strong>
\nPittsburgh Penguins<\/strong>
\nUtah Mammoth<\/strong>
\nWashington Capitals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\nThe key here is “relatively”. Each team has reasons to be optimistic.\n\nThe Flyers have found a competent goalie (Dan Vladar) to play in Rick Tocchet’s system, which ranks seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. The Islanders combine the adrenaline of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin to rank in the top three of the Metro.\n\nThe Capitals are in the Metro fight thanks to their stellar goalie Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson, both seeking a place on the Canadian Olympic team.\n\nThe Mammoth are where they want to be: in a playoff position with young stars like Logan Cooley in top form. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, thanks to the performance of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who have boosted the offense, while the surprisingly solid goaltending has delivered defensively.\n\nMeanwhile, the Wild enter Thanksgiving week at a good time, in a season that has featured a healthy Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who had a 6-0-2 record in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage.\n\n\nWorried Until They Recover<\/h3>\n\n\nBoston Bruins<\/strong>
\nFlorida Panthers<\/strong>
\nLos Angeles Kings<\/strong>
\nNew Jersey Devils<\/strong>
\nOttawa Senators<\/strong>
\nVegas Golden Knights<\/strong>
\nWinnipeg Jets<\/strong>\n\nAll of these teams have dealt with significant injuries to key players so far this season.\n\nThe Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to miss Matthew Tkachuk during the first months of the season, when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured. They have kept up the pace thanks to the offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks.\n\nThe Devils are doing their best without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a strange accident. The Jets are also suffering the loss of Connor Hellebuyck, who will be out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee.\n\nThe Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and the Kings (Drew Doughty) also miss their star defenses. The Senators are the luckiest of this group: Brady Tkachuk is expected to return soon after a thumb injury.\n\n\n