{"id":29951,"date":"2025-08-31T05:05:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T09:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/sin-categoria\/wnba-key-injuries-and-returns-impact-playoffs-analysis-and-favorites\/"},"modified":"2025-08-31T05:05:06","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T09:05:06","slug":"wnba-key-injuries-and-returns-impact-playoffs-analysis-and-favorites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wnba\/wnba-key-injuries-and-returns-impact-playoffs-analysis-and-favorites\/","title":{"rendered":"WNBA: Key Injuries and Returns Impact Playoffs, Analysis and Favorites"},"content":{"rendered":"The 2025 WNBA season has been marked by a wave of injuries that have affected several of the league&#8217;s most prominent stars.\n\nA comprehensive analysis of the situation, based on the injury tracking of The IX Basketball, reveals that 117 players have been absent for a combined total of 868 games. Among those affected are figures of the stature of Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard, who have faced prolonged periods off the courts.\n\nIn addition, A&#8217;ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have also suffered physical setbacks that have kept them away from competition.\n\nOn the other hand, some players like Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Georgia Amoore, along with some members of the Fever such as Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson, will not be able to return this season.\n\nHowever, the good news is that several of the most important stars have already returned to action, and more players are expected to rejoin their teams as the postseason approaches.\n\nBut, what playoff teams or title contenders will benefit most from these returns?\n\nTo answer this question, at Alofoke Deportes we analyzed the six teams with the greatest chances of winning the championship, according to the Elo-based forecast model: Lynx, Dream, Aces, Liberty, Mercury, and Fever. We compared their title chances and the Simple Ranking System (SRS) rankings to assess the impact of absences and the expected improvements with the return of key players. To do this, we used the estimated RAPTOR rankings, which allowed us to calculate the point value that the presence of each player contributes to the point differential in a match.\n\n<h2>Minnesota Lynx<\/h2>\n\nNapheesa Collier\n\nStatus: Returned on August 24 (ankle)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 7-3\n\nSRS with\/without the absence of Collier: +9.43 vs. +10.64\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Collier&#8217;s absence: 58.8% vs. 68%\n\nThe Lynx, who have been league leaders, haven&#8217;t suffered many injuries. The absence of Collier, who was leading the MVP race before getting injured, makes a significant difference. The loss of two consecutive games without Collier for the first time this season is notable. Her return could improve the team&#8217;s performance in the playoffs.\n\nThe Lynx are expected to be as powerful as ever with Collier back.\n\n<h2>Atlanta Dream<\/h2>\n\nJordin Canada\n\nStatus: Absent since August 13 (hamstrings)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 10-5\n\nRhyne Howard\n\nStatus: Returned on August 10 (knee)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 7-4\n\nSRS with\/without absences: +5.94 vs. +7.10\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 19.3% vs. 28%\n\nAlthough neither Canada nor Howard are at the level of Collier or Stewart, both are very valuable players. The return of Canada, along with Howard, is expected to boost the team in the playoffs.\n\n<h2>Las Vegas Aces<\/h2>\n\nA&#8217;ja Wilson\n\nStatus: Returned on July 12 (doll)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 1-3\n\nSRS with\/without the absence of Wilson: +0.96 vs. +1.47\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Wilson&#8217;s absence: 14.1% vs. 21%\n\nThe absence of Wilson has affected the team&#8217;s statistics. His return demonstrates the impact of a superstar on the team&#8217;s performance. The Aces must play at a higher level in the playoffs, but with Wilson, they cannot be ruled out.\n\n<h2>New York Liberty<\/h2>\n\nBreanna Stewart\n\nStatus: Returned on August 25 (knee)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 5-8\n\nJonquel Jones\n\nStatus: Returned on July 22 (ankle)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 7-5\n\nSRS with\/without absences: +4.01 vs. +5.86\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the rankings for their absences: 2% vs. 8%\n\nStewart&#8217;s absence has been the most costly of the season. Although the Liberty have struggled, with Stewart and Jones back, they could improve significantly in the postseason.\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Phoenix Mercury<\/h2>\n\nAlyssa Thomas\n\nStatus: Returned on June 11 (calf)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 2-3\n\nNatasha Mack\n\nStatus: Returned on June 11 (back)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 6-4\n\nSRS with\/without its absences: +3.39 vs. +4.10\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 3.6% vs. 7%\n\nThomas is an MVP candidate, and her absence cost the team points. Mack is having a great defensive season. With both players healthy, the Mercury will improve in the playoffs.\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indiana Fever<\/h2>\n\nCaitlin Clark\n\nStatus: Absent since July 15th (ingle)\n\nRecord in matches without her: 12-13\n\nSRS with\/without absences: +1.90 vs. +2.46\n\nTitle possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Clark&#8217;s absence: 1.6% vs. 2%\n\nClark has been out with injuries. Although advanced metrics underestimate the impact of her injuries, the Fever are better with her on the court. However, it is uncertain how much she will be able to contribute after missing most of the year.","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2025 WNBA season has been marked by a wave of injuries that have affected several of the league&#8217;s most prominent stars. A comprehensive analysis of the situation, based on the injury tracking of The IX Basketball, reveals that 117 players have been absent for a combined total of 868 games. Among those affected are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[355,604,104,382],"class_list":{"0":"post-29951","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-wnba","8":"tag-injuries","9":"tag-players","10":"tag-playoffs","11":"tag-wnba"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29951\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alofokedeportes.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}