The 2025 WNBA season has been marked by a worrying wave of injuries that has affected several of the league’s most prominent players.According to an exhaustive analysis conducted by Alofoke Deportes, a total of 117 players have been absent, totaling 868 missed games to date. Among the most affected figures are Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard, who have been out of the courts for several matches.In addition, A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have also suffered significant absences, further complicating the competition landscape. Added to these absences are Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, Katie Lou Samuelson, Georgia Amoore, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson, who will not be able to return this season.Despite this situation, some of the most important stars have already returned to action, and more players are expected to join as the playoffs approach.
Analysis of the Teams Aspiring to the Title
Alofoke Deportes focused on the six teams with the greatest chances of winning the championship, according to the Elo-based forecast model: Lynx, Dream, Aces, Liberty, Mercury, and Fever.Their title probabilities and SRS (Simple Rating System) rankings were compared, adjusting the data based on key absences for each team. The impact of the players’ return was also estimated, using RAPTOR ratings to calculate how many points they would contribute to the point difference in each match.
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa CollierStatus: Returned on August 24 (ankle)Record in games without Collier: 7-3SRS with/without Collier absence: +9.43 vs. +10.64Title probabilities after adjusting for Collier’s absence: 58.8% vs. 68%The Lynx have had few injuries this season, but the absence of Collier, who was leading the MVP race before getting injured, has made a difference. Her return promises to strengthen the team in the playoffs.
Atlanta Dream
Jordin CanadaStatus: Absent since August 13th (hamstring)Record in matches without Canada: 10-5Rhyne HowardStatus: Returned on August 10 (knee)Record in games without Howard: 7-4SRS with/without absences: +5.94 vs. +7.10Title probabilities after adjusting for absences: 19.3% vs. 28%Although neither Canada nor Howard are at the level of Collier or Stewart, both are very valuable players. The return of Canada along with Howard for the playoffs could be a great boost for Atlanta.
Las Vegas Aces
A’ja WilsonStatus: Returned on July 12 (doll)Record in matches without Wilson: 1-3SRS with/without Wilson absence: +0.96 vs. +1.47Title probabilities after adjusting for Wilson’s absence: 14.1% vs. 21%The absence of Wilson has significantly affected the team’s statistics. Despite this, the Aces will have to raise their performance in the playoffs to prove their worth.
New York Liberty
Breanna StewartStatus: Returned on August 25 (knee)Record in games without Stewart: 5-8Jonquel JonesStatus: Returned on July 22 (ankle)Record in games without Jones: 7-5SRS with/without absences: +4.01 vs. +5.86Title probabilities after adjusting for absences: 2% vs. 8%Stewart’s absence has been the most costly in statistical terms. However, with his return and Jones’, the Liberty have the opportunity to significantly improve their performance.
Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa ThomasStatus: Returned on June 11 (calf)Record in matches without Thomas: 2-3Natasha MackStatus: Returned on June 11 (back)Record in games without Mack: 6-4SRS with/without absences: +3.39 vs. +4.10Title probabilities after adjusting for absences: 3.6% vs. 7%The return of Thomas and Mack could improve the Mercury’s performance in the playoffs.
Indiana Fever
Caitlin ClarkStatus: Absent since July 15th (ingle)Record in games without Clark: 12-13SRS with/without absences: +1.90 vs. +2.46Title probabilities after adjusting for Clark’s absence: 1.6% vs. 2%The absence of Clark has been the most notable of the season. Although advanced metrics underestimate the impact of her injuries, the Fever have proven to be a stronger team with her on the court. However, it remains to be seen how far she can take her team after missing a large part of the season.
