WNBA Finals: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury, an Epic Duel
The longest regular season in WNBA history culminates with the Finals, and for the first time, the series will be decided in a best-of-seven-game format. The teams that have demonstrated their superiority in the postseason, the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury, will face each other in a high-caliber battle. The Aces, seeded second, will host Game 1 on Friday. In addition, as the team with the best position, Las Vegas will host Games 2, 5, and 7, if necessary. The Mercury have made history by reaching the Finals twice in five years without having any player who has remained on the team during that period. Their reconstruction included the incorporation of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and DeWanna Bonner, among others. On the other hand, the Aces have five players who have been in Las Vegas since at least 2022, including first draft picks A’ja Wilson (2018) and Jackie Young (2019). The Aces have rebuilt around their core, which includes Chelsea Gray, but they have more experience playing together than the Mercury.Will this have an impact at this stage of the season? Although much of the attention in the playoffs has focused on refereeing, injuries, and the general discontent of the players, the basketball has been spectacular at times. Below, we analyze the predictions of Alofoke Deportes experts on how the WNBA Finals will unfold.
Las Vegas Aces
Projected lineup (playoff stats): G Chelsea Gray (10.9 PPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 SPG), G Jackie Young (20.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.8 RPG), F Kierstan Bell (2.4 PPG), F NaLyssa Smith (8.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG), C A’ja Wilson (26.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 2.6 SPG)Analysis: In some ways, the Aces’ biggest challenge in the Finals is themselves. Wilson lamented after Game 5 of the semifinals that the losses to the Fever were especially frustrating “because we felt they were self-inflicted. We felt we were in control and we just didn’t show up.” Coach Becky Hammon also criticized her team at halftime of the decisive game after Las Vegas allowed 45 points in the first half. “I love that we made some shots tonight and scored 107 points, but that’s not the way this team has traditionally won games,” Hammon said. “Our defense has to improve. Our rebounding has to improve. We have to learn from this series and we have to get better, quickly.”One thing that Las Vegas might not have to worry about is the health of point guard Chelsea Gray, who briefly exited Game 5 after twisting her ankle. Gray returned after having her ankle taped and, when asked if she had any concerns about her availability for Game 1, she replied: “None at all”.
Why they can win the WNBA title: They have the best player and center in Wilson, the best versatile guard in Young, and the best pure point guard in Gray. They have won two titles together and have helped develop Smith, a younger player who has exploded her potential in these playoffs. If Smith can be solid and the Aces get good contributions from their bench, particularly from Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans, they have the offensive power and defensive resilience to win the title.If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Wilson, who has carried the team on her shoulders during their incredible 16-game winning streak to end the regular season. She has been playing at another level, even for her, during the last two months. She is irreplaceable in everything the Aces do, offensively and defensively.If they lose, it will be because… They don’t get enough points from players other than Wilson and Young.Phoenix Mercury
Projected lineup (playoff statistics): G Monique Akoa Makani (5.7 PPG, 2.6 APG), G Kahleah Copper (15.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG), F Satou Sabally (17.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG), F Alyssa Thomas (18.6 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG)Analysis: The Mercury faced the New York Liberty in the first round and the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals. Phoenix embraced the underdog role from the start of the playoffs. As the season began, the Mercury only had two players from their 2024 roster, and there were doubts about the performance of Phoenix’s depth outside of their three stars. Then, the injuries came. Copper missed the first 11 games of the season due to knee surgery. Thomas (left calf) missed five games between May and June, and Sabally (right ankle) was out for two weeks in July.Why they can win the WNBA title: The Mercury have had the most impressive playoff run so far. Phoenix has known how to take advantage of Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier’s injuries, and has prevailed over two opponents much stronger than any of the teams the Aces have faced. There is no doubt that Phoenix comes with more momentum.If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Satou Sabally. Due to her versatility, length, and shooting range, Sabally is sometimes unstoppable. Las Vegas doesn’t have a player who can guard her. Sabally is the difference-maker for Phoenix. If she is focused and playing to her strengths, Sabally will be the one to decide the Mercury’s championship.
If they lose, it will be because… They didn’t show the defense that defeated the Lynx in the Finals.
