The longest regular season in WNBA history culminates with what could be the league’s most extensive final. For the first time, the series will be decided in a best-of-seven games format, and the teams that have demonstrated their superiority in the postseason will face each other in a high-caliber clash: the Las Vegas Aces, seeded number 2, against the Phoenix Mercury, seeded number 4.
The Aces will host Game 1 on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET). Thanks to their position in the standings, Las Vegas will also host Games 2, 5, and 7, if necessary.
The Mercury, for their part, have made history by reaching the final twice in a span of five years without having any players from the original team. This season, they rebuilt their roster with the incorporation of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and DeWanna Bonner, among others.
The Aces have five players who have been in Las Vegas since at least 2022, including first draft picks A’ja Wilson (2018) and Jackie Young (2019). While the Aces revamped their team around their core, which includes Chelsea Gray, they have more experience playing together than the Mercury.
Will this be a decisive factor at this stage of the season? Although the playoffs have been marked by refereeing controversy, injuries, and player discontent, the basketball has been spectacular at times.Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas seek to lead Phoenix to their first WNBA title since 2014. A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young are going for Las Vegas’s third title in four seasons.Las Vegas AcesKey Players (Playoff Stats):
Chelsea Gray (10.9 PPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 SPG)
Jackie Young (20.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.8 RPG)
Kierstan Bell (2.4 PPG)
NaLyssa Smith (8.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
A’ja Wilson (26.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 2.6 SPG)
Analysis: The Aces could be their own biggest obstacle in the final. Wilson lamented after Game 5 of the semifinals that the losses to the Fever were frustrating “because we felt they were self-inflicted. We felt we were in control and just didn’t show up. And that hurts more than, ‘Gee, they made more shots than us'”.
Even at the break of the decisive game, coach Becky Hammon reprimanded her team after Las Vegas allowed 45 points in the first half. Indiana’s pace barely slowed after the break, as the Aces won despite allowing their most points in a playoff game since 2022. “I love that we made some shots tonight and scored 107 points, but it’s not the way this team has traditionally won games,” Hammon said. “Our defense has to improve. Our rebounding has to improve. We have to learn from this series and we have to improve, quickly.”
One thing the Las Vegas Aces might not have to worry about is the health of point guard Chelsea Gray, who briefly left Game 5 after twisting her ankle. Gray returned after having her ankle taped and, when asked if she had any concerns about her availability for Game 1, she said: “None whatsoever.”
Why they could win the WNBA title: They have Wilson, the best overall player and center, Young, the best all-around point guard, and Gray, the best pure point guard. They have won two titles together and have helped develop Smith, a younger interior player who has tapped into her greater potential at times during these playoffs. The Aces’ trio will be present virtually all the time; Wilson, Young, and Gray have shown it. If Smith can be solid and the Aces get good contributions from their bench, particularly from Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans, they have the offensive power and defensive resilience to win the title.If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Gray earned this honor in 2022, then Wilson won it in 2023. But now there’s only one answer: Wilson, who carried the team on her shoulders during their amazing 16-game winning streak to end the regular season. She’s been playing at another level, even for her, for the last two months. She is irreplaceable for everything the Aces do, offensively and defensively.If they lose, it will be because… They don’t get enough points from players other than Wilson and Young. Before this year’s Aces, only one team in league history with at least eight playoff games had seen more than half of their points come from just two players: the 2008 San Antonio Silver Stars, with Becky Hammon and Sophia Young-Malcolm combining for 50% of their postseason points. Entering this series, 53% of Las Vegas’ playoff points have come from Wilson and Young, who were the first teammates to each score 30 points in the same playoff game during Game 5 of the semifinals.Players ready for the spotlight in the Finals: Smith and Evans could be X-factors. Evans was part of the champion Chicago team in 2021 as a rookie, although she didn’t play much. Now she has a more important role at 27 years old and with four seasons of experience in the WNBA. Evans averaged 6.6 points and 2.2 assists this year during the regular season, but those numbers have increased to 7.4 and 3.0 in the postseason.
After being the second draft pick in 2022 and spending her first three seasons in Indiana, Smith was traded to Dallas this year. That didn’t work out, so she was sent to Las Vegas on June 30. She has spoken about how the Aces players and staff have improved her confidence, and Las Vegas needs her in this series, especially with rebounds. Smith averaged 8.2 points and 5.3 rebounds in her 27 regular season games with the Aces this year, and is at 8.9 and 4.6 in the playoffs.Phoenix MercuryKey Players (Playoff Stats):
Monique Akoa Makani (5.7 PPG, 2.6 APG)
Kahleah Copper (15.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
Satou Sabally (17.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
Alyssa Thomas (18.6 PPG, 9.1 APG, 8.4 RPG)
Analysis: The Mercury faced the defending champion New York Liberty in the first round and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals. Phoenix assumed the role of underdogs from the start of the playoffs. “Nobody has had expectations for us except ourselves,” said coach Nate Tibbetts after Phoenix secured their place in the Finals. “The pride and unity of such a new group is quite impressive.” Starting the season, the Mercury only retained two players from their 2024 roster, and there were doubts about how Phoenix’s depth would perform outside of their star trio. Then, the injuries came. Copper missed the first 11 games of the season while recovering from knee surgery. Thomas (left calf) missed five games between May and June, and Sabally (right ankle) was out for two weeks in July.
With approximately one month remaining in the regular season, Sabally told ESPN that she thought her team, which was finally healthy, was playing at about 80% of its capacity. And now? “I think we are [playing] at 99%,” said Sabally, whose Mercury became the fourth team in WNBA history to eliminate both teams that participated in the previous year’s Finals in the same postseason. “Winning, proving it, then I’ll say we’re at 100%.”Why they could win the WNBA title: The Mercury have had the far more impressive playoff run so far. While they benefited from injuries to rival stars Breanna Stewart (very limited in Game 2 of the first round) and Napheesa Collier (missed the series-deciding Game 4), the Mercury have taken care of business against two opponents far stronger than either of the teams the Aces have faced. Las Vegas is the first team in the current WNBA playoff format, adopted in 2022, to not face a top-four seed on its way to the Finals. Yet the Aces still went down to the wire in both rounds, needing a missed buzzer-beater from the Storm and overtime against the shorthanded Fever to get here. There’s no doubt Phoenix is coming in stronger.If they win, the Finals MVP will be: Satou Sabally. Because of her versatility, length, and long-range shooting, Sabally is sometimes unstoppable. Las Vegas doesn’t have an obvious matchup for her. Almost no team does. At 6-foot-4, Sabally has a clear size advantage over Young and Loyd, and Smith isn’t comfortable defending on the perimeter. Sabally’s ability to shoot 3-pointers (34.0% in the playoffs) and get to the free-throw line (5.9 FTA per game, third in the postseason) makes her a threat anywhere on the court.
It’s no coincidence that Sabally scored 24, 23, and 21 points in Phoenix’s three wins against Minnesota and only 10 in the first game’s loss. Thomas is the model of production and consistency, so the Mercury know what they get from their best player. Sabally is the one who tips the scales for Phoenix. If she is focused and playing to her strengths, Sabally will be the one to make the difference in a Mercury championship.If they lose, it will be because… They didn’t bring the defense that beat the Lynx to the Finals. Phoenix’s defense was good in the regular season and has stepped up in the playoffs. The Mercury lead the postseason in points allowed per play, points per 100 possessions, and 3-point field goal percentage. One of the keys to the Mercury’s victory over Minnesota was limiting the WNBA’s best 3-point shooting team to 29.5% in the four games.
However, in the three victories that Las Vegas had against the Mercury in the regular season, the Aces had a better percentage and scored more points than Phoenix otherwise allowed. The Mercury’s defense was not as good against the Aces when Wilson was on the court (she missed their first encounter, a six-point victory for the Mercury). In their most recent encounter, on August 21, Las Vegas’ defense stood out, holding Phoenix to its lowest point total of the season (61).Player ready for the spotlight in the Finals: A year ago, Sami Whitcomb played only four minutes in total in the Storm’s first-round sweep by the Aces. After a year in which she shot a career-low 29% from 3-point range at age 36, it seemed that perhaps she had reached the end of the line when she arrived in Phoenix. Instead, Whitcomb has once again become one of the most dangerous shooters in the WNBA, scoring a team-high 86 three-pointers, including the shot that forced overtime in the Game 2 victory in Minnesota. Whitcomb missed the 2020 Finals to quarantine in Australia before the birth of her first child, but in 2018, she actually finished multiple games on the court instead of All-Star Loyd when Seattle won the title that year. Whitcomb scored six points in the final quarter of Game 3 when the Storm completed a sweep of the Mystics.WNBA Finals PredictionsKendra Andrews: Phoenix in 7. The Mercury have been one of the most consistent teams in these playoffs, but everything went up a level from halftime of Game 2 against Minnesota in the semifinals. Phoenix looks like a well-oiled machine that is executing the little things that get you a championship.Charlie Creme: Vegas in 7. I can’t imagine this being a short series. The games will be close and the series will have numerous turning points. My first thought is that the series will go the distance. My second thought is that, once it gets to a seventh game, don’t bet against Wilson, who has already scored 38 and 35 points in two series-deciding games in these playoffs.Kevin Pelton: Phoenix in 7. To beat an elite opponent, I think the Aces will need to be more defensively disciplined than they have shown so far in the playoffs. Las Vegas could certainly get there, but I wouldn’t bet on it.Alexa Philippou: Las Vegas in 7. There’s no doubt Phoenix has been stellar in these playoffs, but I have a hard time not picking Wilson and Young with the way they’re playing. Between the pair’s dominance and the Finals experience the Aces boast between Becky Hammon at the helm, plus Gray and Loyd on the court, they’ll simply find a way, even though they didn’t seem invincible in the previous rounds.Michael Voepel: Las Vegas in 7: Having picked the Aces from the start of the playoffs, I’ll stick with this. This pick isn’t about devaluing the Mercury, who impressively eliminated last year’s finalists. It’s about the strength of Las Vegas’s trio, Wilson, Young, and Gray, who are going for their third title as a unit.
