Wimbledon 2025: Favorites and Surprises at the Tennis Tournament

Wimbledon 2025: Analysis and Favorites

The arrival of Wimbledon on the tennis calendar marks a turning point, with very different dynamics between the men’s and women’s categories. In the men’s circuit, the tournament is usually predictable, while in the women’s, surprise is the constant.

Men’s Domain: Alcaraz and Djokovic in the Crosshairs

In the last 20 years, only 12 players have played in the men’s final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have monopolized more than half of those spots. Djokovic has reached the last six finals, winning four and losing the last two to Carlos Alcaraz, who has won the last four Grand Slams on natural surfaces. It is logical to consider him a strong candidate.

Female Uncertainty: A Tournament of Surprises

The women’s landscape is different. Although Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Coco Gauff have dominated on hard and clay courts, seven different women have won the last seven Wimbledon titles. In the last four years, there have been 13 different semi-finalists. Grass is synonymous with greatness for men and a generator of random results for women. The 2025 edition promises interesting stories. Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner are the favorites in the men’s draw, but with Sabalenka and Gauff facing challenges and the unpredictability of the grass, the women’s tournament is an unknown. We analyze the players with the most chances of standing out in the two weeks of Wimbledon.

Favorites

Carlos Alcaraz

ESPN BET Odds: +125 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 54.2% First possible top-10 opponent: Holger Rune (quarterfinals)

After winning the epic Roland Garros final against Sinner, Alcaraz prevailed in his only grass court preparation tournament, winning at Queen’s Club. Although comparing him to the “Big Three” (Federer, Djokovic, Nadal) is difficult, Alcaraz is making it inevitable. His ability to adapt and play in unique conditions makes him a favorite in every Roland Garros or Wimbledon he plays.

Jannik Sinner

Will Jannik Sinner be affected by his tough defeat at Roland Garros?ESPN BET Odds: +190 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 6.6% First possible top-10 opponent: Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals) Sinner has had an impressive performance since mid-August. He is the best player on hard courts and seems to improve in each tournament. His path is challenging, with possible matches against Denis Shapovalov, Tommy Paul or Grigor Dimitrov, and in the quarterfinals against Musetti or Ben Shelton. However, it is difficult to rule him out.

Aryna Sabalenka

ESPN BET Odds: +240 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 19.3% First possible top-10 opponent: Madison Keys or Paula Badosa (quarterfinals) Sabalenka has lacked a strong finish in 2025. She has reached seven finals out of ten tournaments, but has lost four of the last six. She has reached the semifinals in her last two Wimbledon appearances, and her path could include Marketa Vondrousova, Emma Raducanu or McCartney Kessler in the third round, Elina Svitolina in the round of 16, Keys in the quarterfinals and Jasmine Paolini in the semifinals.

Novak Djokovic

ESPN BET Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 21.1% First possible top-10 opponent: Jack Draper (quarterfinals) Djokovic showed his level in Paris, reaching the semifinals. Although he might be thinking about retirement, if he achieves his 25th Grand Slam title, it will probably be at the All England Club, where he has won seven times. His path is complicated, but he wouldn’t need many matches to go far.

Coco Gauff

It’s a good time to be Coco Gauff.ESPN BET Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 8.7% First possible top-10 opponent: Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals) Gauff, at 21 years old, already has an impressive resume. Despite not having had great success at Wimbledon, her potential makes her a favorite.

Elena Rybakina

ESPN BET Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 5.4% First possible top-10 opponent: Iga Swiatek (fourth round) Rybakina is a player for important matches. She has the most effective serve among the top players and could face Swiatek in the fourth round and Gauff in the quarterfinals.

They Need a Push

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek has had an atypical 2025.ESPN BET Odds: +850 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 8.4% First possible top-10 opponent: Coco Gauff (quarterfinals) Swiatek has had an unusual year, falling in the rankings and losing the Roland Garros. Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam where she has never reached the semifinals, so it will be a surprise if she achieves it this year.

Jack Draper

ESPN BET Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 1.9% First possible top-10 opponent: Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals) Draper has had an outstanding season, but his record at Wimbledon is not very favorable. His path does not favor him, with a possible encounter against Bublik and Djokovic.

Madison Keys

ESPN BET Odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.0% First possible top-10 opponent: Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals) Keys reached the number 5 position in the ranking, but has lost his last matches on grass.

Marketa Vondrousova

ESPN BET Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.2% First possible top-10 opponent: Aryna Sabalenka (third round) Vondrousova had an irregular performance after winning Wimbledon in 2023. Her path is difficult, but her style of play can complicate things. Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander Zverev (+2500)

Wimbledon Hopefuls

Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina is a safe bet to reach the final rounds.ESPN BET Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 3.4% First possible top-10 opponent: Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round) Svitolina has regained her level after her comeback and has reached five quarter-finals in her last nine Grand Slams. Her record at Wimbledon is good and she is a favorite to reach the round of 16.

Taylor Fritz

ESPN BET Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 1.5% First possible top-10 opponent: Daniil Medvedev (fourth round) Fritz has a good draw, although he could face Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Daniil Medvedev. If he gets through the early rounds, he could perform well.

Alexander Bublik

ESPN BET Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 0.7% First possible top-10 opponent: Jack Draper (third round) Bublik won in Halle and is capable of beating anyone. He could be a significant obstacle for Draper.

Barbora Krejcikova

ESPN BET Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 0.5% First possible top-10 opponent: Emma Navarro (third round) Krejcikova, a great doubles player, is unpredictable in singles. Her performance is not very high, but if she builds momentum, she could surprise.

Lorenzo Musetti

ESPN BET Odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 3.3% First possible top-10 opponent: Ben Shelton (fourth round) Musetti has performed well and reached the semi-finals in two of his last four Grand Slams. Although he is in Sinner’s bracket, he is favored to reach the quarter-finals. Others: Daniil Medvedev (semi-finalist 2023-24, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (quarter-finalist 2024, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Jabeur (finalist 2022-23, +5000), Emma Navarro (quarter-finalist 2024, +5000), Alex de Minaur (quarter-finalist 2024, +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (semi-finalist 2021, +6600), Tommy Paul (quarter-finalist 2024, +6600), Donna Vekic (semi-finalist 2024, 100-1), Tatjana Maria (semi-finalist 2022, 100-1), Denis Shapovalov (semi-finalist 2021, 100-1), Grigor Dimitrov (semi-finalist 2014, 100-1), Cameron Norrie (semi-finalist 2022, 300-1), Lulu Sun (quarter-finalist 2024, 300-1), Marin Cilic (semi-finalist 2017, 400-1), Matteo Berrettini (finalist 2021), Petra Kvitova (champion 2011 and 2014)

Waiting for a Rebound

Naomi Osaka

Could Naomi Osaka regain her champion form at Wimbledon?ESPN BET Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 0.2% First possible top-10 opponent: Qinwen Zheng (second round) Osaka is ranked 31st in the world according to Elo rankings, but her WTA ranking is 56. In her last six Grand Slams, she has faced top-20 rivals in the second round. Her path at Wimbledon is not favorable and she could face Qinwen Zheng in the second round. The search for a breakthrough will continue. Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)

Americans to Follow

Amanda Anisimova

ESPN BET Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: 2.0% First possible top-10 opponent: Jasmine Paolini (fourth round) Anisimova has risen in 2025 and could be a threat in Paolini’s draw.

Ben Shelton

ESPN BET Odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: <0.1% First possible top-10 opponent: Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round) Shelton has yet to shine on this surface. A possible match against Musetti in the fourth round would be interesting. Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Krueger (100-1), Frances Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)

Young Talents

Jakub Mensik

Keep an eye on Jakub Mensik.ESPN BET Odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: <0.1% First possible top-10 opponent: Jack Draper (fourth round) Mensik won the Miami title and could have a chance at Wimbledon.

Learner Tien

ESPN BET Odds: 300-1 | Tennis Abstract Probabilities: <0.1% First possible top-10 opponent: Holger Rune (second round) Tien is a left-handed player with a good serve and could surprise. He could face Rune in the second round. Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)