Detailed Analysis: Has Manchester United Really Improved Under Amorim?
A little over a year ago, Manchester United sacked Erik ten Hag, just a couple of months after a thorough review that initially backed the coach. This decision came after a 2-1 defeat against West Ham.
According to sources close to the club, the United board lost confidence in Ten Hag due to a poor start to the season. Concerns centered on the possibility of the team falling behind in the fight for Champions League qualification.
In the previous season, United finished in eighth position and, at that moment, were in fourteenth. Subsequently, they hired Ruben Amorim and finished the season in 15th place.
The team’s performance, measured in points per game, decreased from 1.2 under Ten Hag to 1.0 with Amorim. The goal difference per game also decreased, going from -0.3 to -0.4. Despite even worse performance, United maintained their confidence in the coach.
It seemed the situation could improve with a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions between October and November, until they suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Everton, who played with one man less for more than 75 minutes.
After twelve matchdays, Manchester United is in a four-way tie for tenth place. A year and a day have passed since Amorim’s first match with United, and the question is clear: Has Manchester United improved compared to the previous year?
Tactical Changes and Game Philosophy
While tactical formations can be flexible, with Amorim, the team’s identity is intrinsically linked to the first number of his tactical scheme. Amorim has maintained a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 scheme in the 39 matches he has managed at United.
Last season, the slowness and inefficiency in ball possession were characteristics of Amorim’s United. The team advanced the ball at an average speed of 0.98 meters per second, the second slowest in the league. However, this season, the situation has changed.
The Amorim team controls approximately the same amount of territory, but with a much higher tempo of play with the ball. This has significantly improved the team’s performance. In 12 matches, they have averaged 0.5 more points per match and their goal difference has improved by 0.4 points per match.
Results Analysis and Sustainability
Regarding the adjusted goal difference, which combines expected goals and actual goals, the team shows a specular image compared to the previous season, but in a positive way. Last year, the adjusted goal difference was -0.16, while this year it is +0.20. This places them in seventh place in the league after 12 games.
In terms of offense, adjusted goals per match have increased from 1.29 under Amorim last season to 1.67 this season. Defensively, adjusted goals conceded have increased slightly, from 1.45 to 1.46.
The change has been worth it. By being less conservative with the ball, United has become more defensively vulnerable, but it has boosted the attack to a greater extent. Amorim has shown improvements from one year to the next, which is beneficial for a young coach.
The change in the forward lineup has influenced the improvement of the team. United is better this season because it attacks better, and the simplest explanation is the incorporation of new attackers.
Regarding tactical decisions, United has changed the way they execute goal kicks. Now, they launch two-thirds of their goal kicks long, compared to 45% last season.
Goalkeepers are also launching non-goal kicks 60% of the time, almost double the 32% from last season. This appears to be intentional and aligns with the overall shift in focus.
External Factors and Future Perspectives
The United have been fortunate in some respects this season. However, they have won three penalties and conceded none. This is unlikely to continue, and if penalties are removed from the adjusted numbers, the goal difference is reduced to +0.04.
The main question is whether Amorim will continue to improve. While things have improved, this is largely because the team was worse under Amorim last season than under Ten Hag.
The other aspect that raises doubts is that much of the improvement has been achieved thanks to the age of the team. The average age of United this season is 26.5 years, which makes it a more veteran team than Arsenal and Manchester City.
Furthermore, they have had a difficult schedule at the start of the season. They will not play against the top four (Arsenal, City, Chelsea and Liverpool) until mid-January. Amorim deserves credit for having guided United to a place that was not remembered. The team is not a complete disaster, but neither does it convince that Manchester United is back.
In conclusion, Manchester United is neither good nor bad at the moment. Amorim has made the team… average.
