Dembélé at the Ballon d'Or: Who competes and who really deserves it?

Is Ousmane Dembélé heading to the Ballon d’Or? An in-depth analysis of the 2024-25 season

Practically assured, barring unforeseen circumstances, Ousmane Dembélé seems poised to win the Ballon d’Or. The Paris Saint-Germain forward shone brightly during the 2024-25 season, establishing himself as a fundamental pillar in the Parisian team’s scheme. In Ligue 1, Dembélé scored 21 goals and provided 6 assists, contributing significantly to PSG winning the league title with a 19-point lead. His impact transcended national borders, as he scored 8 goals and provided 6 assists in the Champions League, being key in the final that PSG won by a margin of five goals. PSG’s transformation into the best team in the world coincided with Dembélé’s arrival at the center of the attack, where he displayed exceptional performance throughout 2025. The player not only has impressive statistics and trophies, but also a compelling narrative. PSG, with Dembélé at the helm, has proven superior to its rivals, and the French player is a determining factor.

Could voters change their minds after Chelsea’s victory over PSG in the Club World Cup final, and award the prize to Cole Palmer? Jorginho finished third in 2021 and Dani Carvajal fourth last season, and Palmer has shown a superior level. However, Dembélé remains the main favorite.

Let’s delve into the analysis of who should be the winner of the Ballon d’Or. To do this, it is crucial to consider the entire 2024-25 season, taking into account individual performance and impact on the team. If we accept that PSG is the best team in the world, it’s curious to remember some key moments of the season. In the first five matchdays of the Champions League, PSG had only won one match, drawn another and lost three. However, from that moment on, the team won 10 of the remaining 12 matches, scoring 35 goals and conceding 9.

Despite the initial ups and downs, PSG faced Liverpool in the round of 16. The second leg at Anfield was memorable, although a header from Jarell Quansah that hit the post prevented it from becoming a classic. If that play had ended in a goal, the story of the season would be very different. Similarly, if some penalties had been executed differently, the fate of Dembélé and PSG would have changed.

The European Sports Media (ESM) Team of the Month is a good indicator of player performance throughout the season. The Ballon d’Or, on the other hand, tends to be influenced by the titles won. The ESM list, updated monthly, offers a more complete and consistent view of the most outstanding players. Lionel Messi was included in the Team of the Month 88 times, Cristiano Ronaldo in 51, while no other player exceeds 31 selections. In February of this season, only one PSG player had been included in the team of the month: Achraf Hakimi. Liverpool, for its part, had already accumulated 18 selections. After Liverpool, the teams with the most players in the team of the month were Barcelona and Real Madrid, with seven each.

By adding up all the votes at the end of the season, PSG players did not get the expected ratings. These are the players with at least 20 individual votes, according to World Soccer magazine:

Mohamed Salah, Liverpool: 43
Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool: 42
Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona: 32
Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid: 32
Lamine Yamal, Barcelona: 26
Achraf Hakimi, PSG: 26
Harry Kane, Bayern Munich: 24
Ousmane Dembélé, PSG: 23
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool: 22
Scott McTominay, Napoli: 21
Cole Palmer, Chelsea: 20

Liverpool, on the other hand, had an unfortunate season in terms of individual recognition, despite their good collective performance. Although they dominated the Premier League and the Champions League until mid-March, their participation in the Champions League ended earlier than expected. They lost the League Cup final and were eliminated from the FA Cup, which limited their chances of success. Who else could aspire to the Ballon d’Or? If we base it on goals and assists, Mohamed Salah would be the undisputed winner. However, there are two aspects to consider. First, penalties are counted as regular goals, even though the player doesn’t need to generate the play. Second, assists are valued equally, without distinguishing the quality of the pass. To correct this, the data is adjusted. Penalty goals are worth 0.21 goals, and assists are measured with Stats Perform’s “expected assists” (xA), which evaluate the probability that a pass will become a goal. After these adjustments, Kylian Mbappé is positioned as the main candidate. However, it is important to consider the performance in the Champions League. If we add the Champions League matches, the top 10 would be: Raphinha is in first place. Mbappé, Lewandowski and the Bayern Munich players are out of the equation. This leaves Raphinha, Dembélé and Salah as the main contenders. Raphinha had one more assist than Yamal and 17 more goals. Although Yamal could contribute more in other areas of the field, it cannot be argued that his value is equivalent to 19 more goals. Regarding defenders, Virgil van Dijk received the second-highest number of votes in the ESM polls during the season. However, he was not the most outstanding player on his team. Achraf Hakimi deserves to be considered in the conversation. If we analyze adjusted offensive contributions, Hakimi stands out above the rest. The players closest to him on the list are full-backs from Bayer Leverkusen and Inter Milan, who do not have the same defensive responsibility as Hakimi. Trent Alexander-Arnold is the most comparable player, but his performance was 50% lower than Hakimi’s. Hakimi is an average defender, which allows him to contribute in attack without neglecting defense.

Dembele, Salah, Raphinha or Hakimi? The choice is difficult, as the four players are worthy of the award. The decision will depend on the interpretation of the criteria. Hakimi’s case is based on his superiority in his position. Raphinha was the most productive player in the world after the adjustments made. Salah stands out for his 54 combined goals and assists. Dembele is the best attacker in the best team in the world.

The main criticism of Dembélé is that he didn’t play enough minutes. However, on this occasion, that could be an advantage. Dembélé has been the most productive player in the world per minute, by a considerable margin. The objective is to identify the best player of the season, beyond the narrative and the colors of each team. Dembélé proved his worth in the important matches and was excellent in all aspects of the offensive game. If I had to vote, my top 10 would be: