Tier Analysis: Key Forwards for Your NHL Hockey Draft

What do Steven Stamkos, Fabian Zetterlund, Mark Stone, Tyler Toffoli, Jake DeBrusk, Kiefer Sherwood, Nikolaj Ehlers, Ryan O’Reilly, and Morgan Geekie have in common? If you don’t have the answer right away, don’t worry. Last season, these fantasy-relevant players finished with a difference of a single power play goal in total points. Nine players, essentially interchangeable from a production standpoint.

Contents

Level 1: The Ones You Don’t Have to Think About Level 2: No need to think yet Level 3: They are going to criticize me here Level 4: Still worthy of the fantasy first line Level 5: Endgame Moves Level 6: Candidates for Recovery Level 7: Potential Abounds Level 8: Recovery Projects

Is there any chance that someone grouped them all together at that point last season? None. But this perfectly illustrates why structuring your draft rankings can give you an edge: when several players are at the same level, knowing where the falls occur prevents you from panicking when your first option disappears.

Think about this: if you arrived at your draft with a single linear list, you’d be in trouble when one of your targets disappeared. Maybe you were planning on Player A or Player B, but both go in the picks before your turn. Without tiers, your “backup plan” is what’s left, often a messy, last-minute choice.

Classifying turns chaos into clarity. You group players who are essentially the same in your eyes into a single group. When the first selection is made at that level, you don’t flinch, you move forward with confidence because each option at that level is one you like just as much. You know who is replaceable, who is unique, and where you expect the real drops to occur. This is how a smart recruiter turns a list into a strategy.

To understand how to create your own tier list, take a look at the defense tier list. The rankings you see here will be different from those you see within the ESPN Fantasy Hockey game, as those are the built-in game rankings. I have my own custom projections and use them for tier-based ranking. Note: Points based on ESPN’s standard scoring system.

Level 1: The Ones You Don’t Have to Think About

Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 260.5, last season: 174.1)
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 253.7, last season: 231.6)
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 245.9, last season: 199.6)
Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 232.9, last season: 214.2)

Notes: The only objection that can be made here is whether Draisaitl should be in this group, or with the Level 2 players. But if we look at the 2018-19 season, this group of forwards appears among the top 10 fantasy forwards at least five times each in the last seven seasons (and it’s actually MacKinnon, not Draisaitl, that prevents us from saying at least six each). No one else has more than four appearances.

Level 2: No need to think yet

David Pastrnak, W, Boston Bruins: (projected: 224.3, last season: 210.2)
Sam Reinhart, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 218.5, last season: 200.5)
Nikita Kucherov, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 208.6, last season: 226.4)
Kirill Kaprizov, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 205.9, last season: 112.6)

Notes: Our first hint of controversy is having Kucherov here, at Tier 2. He is at least two years older than everyone else in these upper tiers and will be turning 33 at the end of the season. That’s not freefall territory yet, but you could say he’s no longer in his prime. ESPN Fantasy Hockey is the fun, free way to get in the game. Draft your players, set your lineups, and score points when the pros do. Sign up today!

Level 3: They are going to criticize me here

Dylan Guenther, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 198.2, last season: 148.4)
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 197.8, last season: 124.7)
Brady Tkachuk, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 195.7, last season: 162.3)
J.T. Miller, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 195.4, last season: 160.4)
Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 193.3, last season: 183.4)

Notes: Let’s start with the inclusion of both Guenther and Pettersson among the top 10 forwards. You have all the support and understanding to lower them several levels in your own rankings, but that’s how the projections turned out for me. Pettersson is a bit more understandable, as even this projection is below his four-year fantasy peak and not even much higher than his four-year average; it’s a question of whether you believe that last season’s locker room drama is what really suppressed him. With Guenther, everything is based on faith because of the phenomenal underlying numbers of a 21-year-old with nothing but track record to carve out his own role at the top of an improved (possibly playoff-aspiring) roster. Apart from Guenther and Pettersson, the rest of these first twelve are a step behind the top two levels.

Level 4: Still worthy of the fantasy first line

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 190.6, last season: 192.5)
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 190.3, last season: 149.5)
William Nylander, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 189.9, last season: 184.3)
Mikko Rantanen, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 189.4, last season: 181.0)
Kyle Connor, W, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 188.3, last season: 204.8)
Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 187.8, last season: 171.0)
Jason Robertson, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 187.4, last season: 174.0)
Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 186.3, last season: 192.6)
Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 186.2, last season: 166.2)
Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 185.9, last season: 170.6)
Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 185.7, last season: 192.9)
Seth Jarvis, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 185.3, last season: 167.1)
Dylan Holloway, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 183.8, last season: 154.7)
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 181.5, last season: 186.3)
Alex Tuch, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 180.5, last season: 196.4)
Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 177.5, last season: 172.5)
Mitch Marner, W, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 176.9, last season: 188.7)
Artemi Panarin, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 176.5, last season: 169.0)
Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 176.2, last season: 151.8)
Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 176.1, last season: 152.8)
Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 175.7, last season: 169.2)

Notes: Largest group here, but only a 15-point difference from top to bottom, so it really comes down to how you want to split it. Hughes, Rantanen, and Connor have top-10 potential, and yes, I know that most rankings place two of them where I’ve put Guenther and Pettersson. Risky? Absolutely. Holloway is another curveball, although he showed real potential with the Blues: 2.95 fantasy points per game in 15 games from February 27 to March 27, or 2.60 FPPG in 20 games from late November to January. In 12-team leagues, the goal is to have at least three forwards at this point and this year, that’s more feasible than usual, with a deeper group of names that don’t make me wrinkle my nose.

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Level 5: Endgame Moves

Jake Guentzel, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 173.3, last season: 186.0)
Martin Necas, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 172.4, last season: 165.7)
Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 171.3, last season: 157.5)
Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 170.7, last season: 175.0)
Jesper Bratt, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 170.3, last season: 176.6)
Filip Forsberg, W, Nashville Predators: (projected: 169.6, last season: 189.0)
Clayton Keller, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 169.3, last season: 176.3)
JJ Peterka, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 168.6, last season: 132.3)
Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 168.6, last season: 147.2)
Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 167.5, last season: 172.2)
Lucas Raymond, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 166.3, last season: 166.4)
Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 165.7, last season: 159.6)

Notes: This group still has a lot of insurable talent, led by Finnish stars Barkov and Aho. Bedard’s hype may be diminishing a bit in fantasy circles, but he still has many important seasons ahead to find the next gear and last year he posted the sixth-best fantasy season since 2009-10 for any player his age or younger. Beyond him, Peterka, Guentzel, and Forsberg offer a combination of potential and proven production, making this level a solid group of contributors, even if none of them are entering the top tiers.

Level 6: Candidates for Recovery

Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 165.4, last season: 170.2)
Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 164.9, last season: 136.5)
Adrian Kempe, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 164.5, last season: 169.0)
Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 163.6, last season: 140.6)
Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 162.8, last season: 193.8)
Cole Caufield, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 162.5, last season: 161.4)
Travis Konecny, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 161.9, last season: 159.2)
Kirill Marchenko, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 161.6, last season: 159.7)
Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 161.5, last season: 88.2)
Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 161.3, last season: 140.1)
John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 161.1, last season: 173.5)
Timo Meier, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 160.3, last season: 155.5)
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 159.9, last season: 124.9)

Notes: Stamkos and Zibanejad have a clear template for recovery: Tavares was the model to follow last season. After recording the lowest points-per-game total of his career in 2023-24 since his rookie season, he recovered to score the second-highest goal total of his career in 2024-25. Stamkos’ first season out of Tampa was tough, and Zibanejad has been declining offensively, but both still have strong supporting casts and time to fix things. With Kempe, Konecny, Marchenko, and Beniers, 30 of the 32 NHL teams now have at least one forward represented so far. Did you make it this far? Create your own league with your own rules and play against your friends today!

Level 7: Potential Abounds

Juraj Slafkovsky, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 159.0, last season: 137.7)
Matthew Tkachuk, W, Florida Panthers: (projected: 157.6, last season: 120.5)
Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 156.6, last season: 157.7)
Carter Verhaeghe, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 155.0, last season: 128.7)
Matt Boldy, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 154.6, last season: 177.2)
Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 154.0, last season: 147.4)
Matvei Michkov, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 154.0, last season: 131.8)
Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 153.6, last season: 143.8)
Jordan Kyrou, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 152.9, last season: 161.4)
Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 152.8, last season: 145.8)
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 152.8, last season: 50.2)
Fabian Zetterlund, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 152.1, last season: 137.5)
Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 151.8, last season: 124.1)
Matthew Knies, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 151.6, last season: 148.8)
Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 151.5, last season: 135.7)
Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 151.1, last season: 115.6)
Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 150.5, last season: 150.3)
Morgan Geekie, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 149.8, last season: 134.9)
Jake Neighbours, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 149.7, last season: 131.6)
Quinton Byfield, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 149.4, last season: 121.4)
Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 147.3, last season: 184.8)

Notes: This tier is brimming with potential. From Slafkovsky and Fantilli to Michkov and Byfield, even a veteran like Ehlers in his first season away from Winnipeg, fantasy superstars are likely hiding here. At this stage of the draft, you should have two full forward lines, so high-potential options are important. Sometimes, choosing safety is best. If you’ve already taken a couple of risks before (like, for example, putting Guenther in the top 10), aiming for Larkin, Kyrou, or Kopitar here makes sense. Tkachuk’s projection takes into account the expectation that he will miss a significant portion of the 2025-26 season. With Horvat, 31 of the 32 NHL teams are now represented among the forwards.