Who will be the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Analysis and Predictions
Although there are still more than nine months until the start of the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, speculation and analysis about who could be the first pick are already underway. The path to the number 1 draft pick last year showed us how a player can quickly rise through the ranks. Quarterback Cam Ward went from being an unknown prospect to being the undisputed most desired quarterback in the 2025 draft. Will we see another quarterback emerge from nowhere to take the top spot? Will any of the current most promising quarterbacks achieve the feat? Will Texas’ Arch Manning follow in his uncles’ footsteps and become the number 1 pick? Or will it be a non-quarterback player who takes the honor for the first time since 2022? Alofoke Deportes analyzes 14 players with possibilities of being the first selection, assigning probability percentages to each one. We begin with some of the most promising quarterbacks of this class, but do not underestimate those with a 1% chance. That’s where Cam Ward was last year.Serious Contenders
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South CarolinaPredicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 15% Why might he be the first pick? NFL teams often fall in love with the qualities of players at the top of the draft, and Sellers possesses some of the best in this class. This 6’3″ and 242-pound quarterback can beat defenses with both his powerful arm (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns versus 7 interceptions as a redshirt freshman at 19 years old) and his legs (674 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns). Sellers showed a drastic improvement as a first-year starter, helping the Gamecocks win six of their last seven games last season. His 65.6% completion rate is also encouraging, considering his inexperience, and suggests further improvement in 2025. He sometimes throws difficult-to-catch passes and holds the ball too long in the pocket: his average release time of 3.06 seconds was the 11th slowest nationally in 2024. He will also need to improve ball security, as he lost 11 fumbles (lost six) last season. But if Sellers can refine these aspects and continue his growth, he has the tools to be the first pick in the 2026 draft.Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson
Predicted probability of being the number 1 pick: 15%Why might he be the first pick? Klubnik could take full advantage of what could be the most talented team in the country. After a disappointing sophomore season in 2023, Klubnik made a big jump as a junior, finishing with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He ended the season with a great performance, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns in the first round of the College Football Playoff against Texas.
Klubnik isn’t very bulky (6’2″, 210 pounds), but he plays with a solid base and progresses quickly through reads. Regardless of how unstable the pocket gets, he’s able to make difficult throws due to his balance, rhythm, and repeatable mechanics. However, there is debate about his arm strength among NFL evaluators.Klubnik is poised to take another leap, as Clemson returns its top three receivers. He’ll have a chance to make a big impression early this season when the Tigers play LSU in Week 1.I think he has enough to be a good starter at the next level, but his setup will always have to be almost perfect to get the best out of him.
AFC executive from a team that needs a QB
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Predicted probability of being the number 1 pick: 15%Why could he be the first pick? Allar is a very talented passer who made a big leap in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, improving his completion percentage from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5%. He has the size (6’5″, 238 pounds) and the strong arm that scouts desire and showed more confidence in those physical qualities. He has no qualms about using his arm strength to test tight windows and has good mobility for his size.
Despite Allar’s progress last season, many scouts feel he still needs to work on ball placement. He will be tested this season, as Penn State lost first-round tight end Tyler Warren and has multiple new receivers to whom Allar will have to adapt. Evaluators also want to see Allar perform better in important games, something he has struggled with in his two seasons as a starter. The games against Oregon and Ohio State are paramount. If he can play more like he did against Oregon in the Big Ten championship last season (280 combined yards and four touchdowns) and less like he did against Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals (12 of 23, 135 yards and a decisive interception), Allar could be a top 10 pick… or even higher.Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU
Predicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 15%Why might he be the first pick? Nussmeier performed well last season after succeeding Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is a bold passer who produces highlight plays with his amazing ability to see important plays and throw the ball to his receivers.
The 6’2″ and 200-pound player has a more flexible than powerful arm, but his great pocket vision and anticipation in throws to intermediate and deep areas of the field stand out. He doesn’t take many sacks (his 2.9% sack rate was the twelfth-lowest in the FBS), but he can be reckless and put the ball in danger, especially after breaking the pocket. This was demonstrated against ranked teams, as he had three games with two or more interceptions against those opponents. While Nussmeier’s aggressiveness can work against him, he has the intelligence, precision, and anticipation to be one of the best draft picks. Scouts will want to see more consistency and how he adapts to a new group of receivers coming from the transfer portal. He will be tested immediately against Clemson in Week 1.Possible Candidates
Fernando Mendoza, QB, IndianaPredicted probability of being the number 1 pick: 12%Why could he be the first pick? Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, where he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. The ceiling for Mendoza, who is 6’5″ and 225 pounds, is even higher.
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and combines a strong arm with superior mobility for his size. He can stand and throw in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate: his 5.1% missed pass percentage last season was the best in the FBS. He also excelled throwing outside the pocket, with a QBR of 91.1. Sometimes he breaks the pocket prematurely instead of allowing concepts to fully develop, so scouts would like to see him be more patient in those situations.T.J. Parker, Edge, ClemsonPredicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 10%I really liked Mendoza’s tape. He’s the one to watch who could be a big riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.
NFC Area Scout
Why could he be the first pick? While quarterbacks are more frequently selected with the first overall pick, edge rushers sometimes take the top spot. Parker is the non-quarterback most likely to be selected first, combining a good first step with strong hands to disengage at the point of attack.
Those hands help him win by dominating blockers, and he finished his sophomore season with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, the second-most in the FBS among defensive linemen. He has also been a ball-loss creator, forcing four fumbles last season (also second in the FBS) and stands out on a Clemson defensive line. I know Woods gets a lot of love, but Parker is the one who could be drafted first from that defense this year.Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Predicted probability of being the number 1 pick: 5%Why could he be the first pick? There’s a lot of projection here, as Manning only has two starts and 95 pass attempts in his college career. Because of that, I don’t think Manning is in the 2026 draft. But he has qualities that could make him an intriguing option at the top of the draft if he has a great season.
The glimpses we saw last season were promising, as he threw for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions, while rushing for 106 yards and four scores. At 6’4″ and 222 pounds, Manning has the physique that scouts covet and uses it effectively. He has a perfect base and a smooth delivery, and his dual-threat ability forces defenses to account for his running. There’s a lot Manning has to work on. He needs to improve on progressing beyond his first read, as his tendency to stick to it leads to bad decisions and forced throws. He also needs to use his mobility more and be more willing to run on dropbacks. That’s why I hope he stays with Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, one of the best quarterback developers in the country, and doesn’t rush to the NFL.Long Shots
The ‘out of nowhere’ quarterbackSince Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 season catapulted him to the top of the 2020 draft, it has been common for little-known quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards into the top of the first round. Ward was one of four quarterbacks we identified in this section a year ago. This time, there are two Day 3-rated passers who could quickly ascend.John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives at OU with high expectations after finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and seven interceptions at Washington State in 2024. He is one of the most competitive and confident passers I have studied on video in this class and makes deep throws with ease. Mateer is also mobile, running for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. If he thrives against a schedule that has a matchup with Michigan in Week 2 plus eight SEC games, his value will increase.Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo received the most attention during Arizona State’s massive turnover last season, but Leavitt also played a significant role, throwing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions after transferring from Michigan State. He’s a poised passer who can extend plays and shred defenses. With Skattebo in the NFL, Leavitt will be the focus of the Sun Devils’ bid to repeat as Big 12 champions.
Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
Predicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 1%Why might he be the first pick? Woods is currently the highest-ranked player on my board, and the 6’3″ 315-pound player is the catalyst for one of the best defenses in the country. But it has been 31 years since a defensive tackle was selected with the first pick (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and six years since an interior defensive lineman was selected in the top 5 (Quinnen Williams, 2019).
Woods played a lot from the edge last season, but remained disruptive as a run defender. He only had three sacks last season as a sophomore, but his explosive power allowed him to penetrate the backfield as a pass rusher. He will get more snaps on the interior this season as a 3-technique under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. If he can convert more pass rushes into sacks, Woods could be a top-five pick in April.Spencer Fano, OT, UtahPredicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 1%Why could he be the first selection? Fano was the most consistent blocker on video in 2024, making him my highest-rated offensive tackle. The 6’3″ and 302-pound player needs to add weight, but he has the quickness and fluidity to take on speedy edge rushers and the power to bury defenders in the run block.
Fano is also versatile, as he moved to right tackle as a sophomore in 2024 and allowed only one sack after playing left tackle the previous season. If he can add pounds and maintain his level of intensity and quickness in his lower body, he could be the first tackle selected in a deep class of prospects.Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Predicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 1%Why might he be the first pick? Proctor has the size (6’7″, 360 pounds) to go very high in the draft, and his best video is that of a top-10 pick. But he is a polarizing prospect due to his inconsistent play.
At his best, he has the power and impact in his hands to quickly overwhelm rushers at the point of attack. He is energetic in the running game and generates movement with ease. His pass protection is where he needs to improve, as there are hot and cold streaks in Proctor’s game. Scouts want to see him play more to his potential as a pass blocker. If he does, he could be the first blocker to be selected.Isaiah World, OT, OregonPredicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 1%Why might he be the first pick? World is the ultimate wildcard in this exercise, as the 6’8″ and 312-pound tackle is rising in the competition after transferring from Nevada this offseason. But his qualities are outstanding. World is an above-average athlete and has foot quickness that is among the best of any blocker in the 2026 class.
Scouts want to see him put all his qualities together. Although World didn’t allow a capture last season, he received eight penalties (five for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He must reduce penalties while handling the increase in competition. If he can combine his quick feet with his suddenness in the lower body and his flashes in the running game, World will be a player to watch at the start of Round 1.Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Predicted probability of being the number 1 selection: 1%Why could he be the first selection? Since the common draft era began in 1967, there has not been a safety selected with the first selection. That is a trend that will likely continue, but it says a lot that Downs is somehow in the conversation.
The 6-foot, 205-pound player transferred from Alabama, where he was stellar as a freshman in 2023, to Ohio State last year, helping the Buckeyes to a national championship. He had 77 tackles last season and is a tackler who wraps up and finishes against the run. He also excels in coverage, allowing only 28.6% of passes to be completed in his coverage (the fifth-best in the FBS). Downs also has two career touchdowns.
