Is there anything more disappointing than seeing that pop song completely invade your 2025 music summaries? For NFL bettors, it’s probably realizing how much they lost with the Detroit Lions.
The exciting 2025 NFL regular season was full of unexpected results, and bettors were no exception. Of the seven teams that started the campaign with odds of +2000 or less to win the Super Bowl, only three made the playoffs. None reached the conference championship round.
Favorites won 65.9% of their games and covered the spread 47.8% of the time this season, far from 2024, when favorites had a historic 71.7% outright win rate and 53.3% against the spread. Although underdog wins generally favor the sportsbooks, bettors continued to wager large sums in 2025, with DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello calling their NFL handling “off the charts”.
Before Super Bowl LX, where the Patriots and Seahawks will face off in Santa Clara, California, in the biggest sports betting event of the year, it’s time to take a look back at the season we left behind and how we got here, with two teams whose preseason odds were +6000 to reach the Super Bowl.
Sports betting writer Doug Greenberg recaps the season with a deep dive into the teams, players, and games that made the 2025 NFL betting season memorable (complete with some fun graphics), and NFL analyst Ben Solak puts some deep cuts on your radar for 2026 based on the bets you loved making in 2025.
Let’s start with the most bet-on teams of 2025.
These teams were repeated all season
The bettors played the big hits early and often this season, with the most-bet teams representing a who’s who of trendy franchises.
The Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills have been perennial teams “at the top” that bettors wanted to believe could finally have that breakthrough season. Both teams attracted considerable Super Bowl futures action before Week 1. Then there were the perennial Super Bowl contenders, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell short (Eagles) and far short (Chiefs) of the league’s top prize.
Finally, the Dallas Cowboys, by far the league’s most valuable franchise at $10.1 billion, according to Forbes, maintained their influence with bettors to close out the top five. Internationally, the Cowboys attracted the second-most bets this season, only behind the Chiefs, according to Sportradar data.Most ignored them, but the teams that did best for bettors were hidden gems at the start of the season. The superior performance of the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks in the regular season translated into the postseason futures market. Avello told Alofoke Deportes that DraftKings has a notable responsibility with New England winning the Super Bowl, including a $10,000 bet at +8000 that would generate $800,000, while BetMGM has already paid out around $1.5 million on Seattle futures and could be on the line for $3 million more if the Seahawks win the title, all to one bettor.
Some of the NFL’s most powerful teams fell hard this season, dragging many bettors down with them.
The Baltimore Ravens and the Chiefs, two of the most reliable teams in recent seasons, struggled throughout the 2025 campaign, making them the biggest losers for bettors. The Chiefs, in particular, did not meet expectations when they were favored, losing nine games outright and failing to cover the spread in 10 games, both the most in the league.After being among the worst-value teams in 2024 (6-11), the Seahawks changed the script in 2025, finishing with the best overall record (14-3) and tied for the best against the spread (12-5). Mike Macdonald’s team was the second most profitable for sportsbook customers, just behind the resurgent Patriots, who also finished with a 12-5 ATS.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears helped savvy bettors with their impressive ATS records, tying with the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers for the second-most outright underdog wins (5). The Carolina Panthers had eight outright underdog wins, tied for the most in a season in the Super Bowl era.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the worst ATS team in the league, but bettors wisely avoided them. On the other hand, the Lions had a mediocre 8-9 ATS, but the large volume of bettors backing them week after week made them a leader in losses.
If you look at the Lions, losing both the offensive and defensive coordinators, we thought it was going to have a greater impact despite the skill positions,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, to Alofoke Deportes. “And that’s why we were a little higher [in the future odds] at the beginning of the season. The same with the Chiefs. The Chiefs really last year, in our opinion, overachieved in terms of having many games in their favor.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook
Which players dominated 2025 and which ones fell short?
Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry lit up the NFL in 2024, so their status as bettors’ favorites in 2025 shouldn’t have been a surprise. However, the first two of that trio didn’t meet expectations and became “loss leaders,” along with Justin Jefferson, Jalen Hurts, and James Cook III.Loss leader is defined here as the players who represented the largest total amount of money lost for bettors, according to a BetMGM representative. The sportsbook notes that anytime touchdown scorer is the most bet player prop market by handle, with receiving yards over/under in second and first touchdown scorer in third.
The ability of players to enter the end zone is the most important measure for prop bets on the macro scale, and a common thread among loss leaders is significantly fewer touchdowns than in 2024. Cook led the league in rushing with 1,621 yards, which reduced his ATD price, limiting his liability in the nine games in which he scored, but costing the public dearly in the eight in which he did not.
Conversely, money leader Jauan Jennings recorded a career-high in touchdowns, notably, while seeing a year-over-year decrease in receiving yards, and Tucker Kraft was on pace to reach career highs across the board before a season-ending ACL injury in Week 9. Jaxson Dart and Jake Tonges emerged as potential future money makers, while Darren Waller turned back the clock with the most touchdowns since 2020.
The crowds went wild: the season’s most bet-on games
It’s no surprise that individual games accumulate more betting handle than Sunday afternoon contests, so prime-time matchups predictably fill the top five here.
Early-season games tended to attract more money, possibly due to nascent optimism and fuller wallets. But several high-stakes late-season matchups also joined the ranks of the most wagered-upon, with their exciting game scripts providing ample live betting opportunities.
2025: Year of the Parlay
As the American betting market continues to mature, bettors are continuously flocking to parlays, giving them the opportunity to win big money with lower stakes. In its most recent earnings report, DraftKings noted a significant increase in parlay handle year-over-year.
Specifically, bettors continue to invest in same-game parlays, which have “continued to go up like a rocket,” Feazel said. “That’s usually what’s a sweat for us week in and week out… it’s when you have a prime-time game with a very high score, all those permutations are going to be really good for the customers.” Feazel also points to the emergence of division winner futures parlays as a bet type that has grown significantly year-over-year. Here are some notables that cashed:
A Hard Rock Bet bettor turned $510 into $100,980 with a parlay of the Seahawks, Patriots, and Panthers winning their divisions.
In late November, a Caesars bettor combined seven teams winning their divisions, turning $50 into $67,328.50; the longest leg of the parlay was the Panthers for the NFC South at +500.
In early October, another Caesars bettor combined the Seahawks, Denver Broncos, and Bears winning their divisions to turn a $25 bet into $18,279; Chicago was a notable +2500 to win the NFC North at the time.
Wait, they bet how much on what?!
Let’s close this summary with some of the wildest bets, by odds, stakes, and winnings, from the NFL regular season.
BetMGM: A bettor wagered $500,000 on the 49ers moneyline (-190) against the Arizona Cardinals on November 16th.
The perfect playlist for 2026
It wouldn’t be a good summary if we didn’t look towards 2026, would it?
Many players and teams showed flashes of brilliance and intriguing betting opportunities despite not making it to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs. Or even throughout the entire season. But with the right ingredients, whether it’s a revamped coaching staff, better weapons, or more reps, these are the first plays to have a great 2026 in the betting houses.
If you enjoyed dismissing the Commanders in 2025, you’ll love dismissing the Bears in 2026.
I was in favor of dismissing the Commanders after their 2024 season, in which they had historic success on fourth downs and had an 8-4 record in one-score games. They had a ray of quarterback in Jayden Daniels, but his play was too erratic to fully trust. I have more faith in the 2025 Bears as a stable organization, as I rate Ben Johnson extremely high among NFL head coaches and believe that Caleb Williams’ success in 2025 is much more repeatable than Daniels’ in 2024. That said, the Bears achieved their 11-6 record and their appearance in the divisional round thanks to some very improbable victories.
Chicago had an 8-5 record in one-score games during the regular season and playoffs, including wins over the Commanders (on a late-game fumble), Raiders (on a blocked field goal at the end of the game), Bengals (on a last-minute, heroic touchdown by Colston Loveland), Packers (thanks to a fourth-down touchdown to send the game to overtime). The Bears sent the divisional round game against the Rams to overtime with an unreal fourth-down touchdown by Cole Kmet.
It’s simply extremely difficult to maintain that level of success at the end of the game, even if the Bears improve as a team overall entering 2026. Another team with a similar candidacy? The Broncos, who had an 11-2 record in one-score games during the regular season.
If you enjoyed betting on the Patriots or the 49ers in 2025, you’ll love betting on the Bengals and the Saints in 2026.Two of the easiest schedules last year belonged to the Patriots, as has been widely covered in their run to the Super Bowl, and the 49ers. As such, they were two of the most bet-on teams for the overs in preseason win totals.
It’s not yet clear who will have the easiest schedules in 2026. To get those numbers, we won’t use each team’s 2025 record, but rather the 2026 projected win totals (which don’t yet exist), and we need to look at the travel/rest disparities in each team’s schedule. Still, we can be pretty sure which teams will generally have easier schedules down the stretch.
The Bengals and Saints are the teams I’m looking at here. They have the second and third easiest schedules based on their opponents’ 2025 win/loss records. Both have reasons to believe they will be at least functional in 2026: the Bengals because they have Joe Burrow, and the Saints because they finished the season 4-1 and seem secure in their quarterback future with Tyler Shough.
The 49ers weren’t as good against the spread (10-7) as they were for win performance throughout the season, as they easily surpassed their preseason number despite suffering major injuries. The Patriots, however, always stayed ahead of the Las Vegas curve. They tied with the Rams, Seahawks, and Jaguars for the best record against the spread (12-5) this regular season.
If you enjoyed betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba overs in 2025, you’ll love betting on Luther Burden III in 2026.
I was recently remembering Smith-Njigba’s rookie season. He was used so heavily on screens (7% of his routes, an astonishing 28% of his targets) that when his offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired, Smith-Njigba sent a shot through the media. Two years later, Smith-Njigba is a revelation as a route runner and a demon on the field. Who could see a similar jump in 2026?
I like Burden for this look. Although his rookie teammate Loveland gets all the media coverage for his strong postseason finish, Burden saw a similar dose of heavy screens in his rookie season, as he was slowly incorporated into Ben Johnson’s complex offense. Screens comprised 7% of his routes and 25% of his targets.
Burden won’t see a change in the offensive training system like Smith-Njigba, but he will likely see an opportunity to get targets if the Bears move away from veteran WR DJ Moore, who doesn’t seem to be in their long-term plans. Just as Smith-Njigba benefited from DK Metcalf’s departure last offseason to open up his role, Burden will enter a larger menu of targets on the field if the receiver depth ahead of him expands.
If you enjoyed betting on Jaxson Dart in 2025, you’ll love betting on Cam Ward in 2026.Dart was a great bet for big rushing totals this season, as the Giants used him a lot in the designed run game, especially in the red zone. Ward, peculiarly, was not used that way by the Titans even though he has good movement skills and a big enough frame.
In fact, Ward had one of the lowest career sack rates of all starting quarterbacks: 3.7%, compared to Dart’s 9.2%. Ward was extremely committed to attempting passes when escaping the pocket, but a new coaching staff should encourage him to run more often to keep the series ahead of the sticks.
Former Dart play-caller Brian Daboll has just signed to become Ward’s offensive coordinator in Tennessee, so we should expect the designed run rate for Ward to increase as well. Dart wasn’t the only quarterback Daboll designed carries for, as that was a big part of Daniel Jones’ initial resurgence in New York when the coach first signed. Ward only had nine designed runs on the season, and eight came in Week 8 or later, after Brian Callahan was fired.
Keep an eye on Ward’s race bets as the season begins, especially as we learn more about the offense Daboll wants to run in Tennessee.
