NFL: 10 teams 0-2 on the tightrope. Who will resurrect?

Did you know that the NFL playoffs actually start in September? Although the 2025 season will continue regardless of what happens in Week 3, ten teams are essentially playing to keep their hopes of advancing to the postseason and winning Super Bowl LX alive this weekend.

History tells us that starting 0-2 diminishes the chances of reaching the playoffs, but starting the season 0-3 is almost a death sentence. Since 2002, if we treat the seventh-best team in each conference as qualifying for the playoffs before the NFL moved to the 14-team postseason format in 2020, 13.3% of the teams that started 0-2 overcame their bad starts and made the postseason. Three teams, the Broncos, the Rams, and the Ravens, achieved this last year.

?Falling to 0-3? Good luck. Since 2002, only three of the 96 teams that opened the season with three consecutive losses have advanced (or would have advanced). Two of them are Steelers teams coached by Mike Tomlin who would have sneaked into the playoffs as the number 7 seed in 2013 and 2019. The other is the 2018 Texans, who managed a nine-game winning streak after their horrible streak in September.

That’s a 3.1% success rate. And while the addition of a seventeenth game in 2021 gives these teams an extra clue to overcome their beginnings, the reality is that 0-3 generally tells us what we need to know. If you can’t win one of those first three games, you probably don’t have the talent to win nine or ten of the next 14 either. So, with ten teams at 0-2 and fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive this weekend, let’s analyze where they stand and their chances of turning things around in the coming weeks. I’ll start with the team I think has the best chance of righting the ship and getting back in the playoff hunt, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise. 1. Kansas City Chiefs

Chances of advancing to the postseason: 51.8%

Well, you probably thought they would be number 1. Obviously, we could talk about the Chiefs and their 0-2 start for an entire column, but there are nine other teams to analyze before finishing, so I’ll give you the express version. Although most of the conversation has revolved around a disappointing offense, the Chiefs seem even more disjointed on defense right now. After two games, they rank 23rd in EPA per allowed play and 26th in QBR. Steve Spagnuolo is blitzing at the third-highest rate in the league, but his pressures are only coming at the 23rd-highest rate. Blitzes that don’t generate pressure are obviously a disaster; they turn the average quarterback into Josh Allen in terms of QBR. The Chiefs are without safety Justin Reid from last year’s secondary, and free agent addition Kristian Fulton was limited to 15 plays against the Chargers before leaving the loss to the Eagles after just two plays with an ankle injury. The defense’s spine has been leaning against windmills, as the Chiefs allow a staggering 11.5 yards per play-action pass. Only the Bills have been worse, but they have faced only five play-action attempts in 2025 (Kansas City has seen 15). Offensively, the most realistic way to describe the Chiefs’ problems is a complete and utter lack of something to hold onto. Good offenses have something to fall back on as their main strength. The Ravens can run the ball, so everything is built from that. The Bills have a superhero at quarterback, and that influences how teams play in coverage. Patrick Mahomes’ early teams had the fastest wide receiver in the league on one side (Tyreek Hill) and a physical force with a sixth sense for finding space on the other (Travis Kelce), forcing defenses to make a compromising decision between man and zone. These are the main problems that need to be solved:

• The designed running game is a disaster. The Chiefs rank 24th in EPA per attempt on designed runs; Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have a league-average success rate, but there’s virtually no juice or explosiveness coming from that part of the offense. The Chiefs’ longest run in 28 attempts has been 11 yards. A running game that is average or worse isn’t going to move the needle or scare opposing defenses.
• There aren’t many explosive plays in the passing game either. Mahomes is attempting more deep passes than in recent years, but he’s gone 3-for-8 for 136 yards on those throws. Some of those attempts have been 50-50 balls, but Mahomes badly missed an open Tyquan Thornton on a double move for what should have been a 75-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Eagles.
• The Chiefs tied with the Patriots at the bottom of the deep passing rankings in the last two seasons, hitting on just 29 deep pass attempts. Mahomes’ QBR of 53.1 on those throws was No. 31 in the league. We know Mahomes has the physical ability to make those throws, but he’s been one of the least impactful deep passers in the league since the start of 2023. That wasn’t a problem when the Chiefs were overwhelmingly successful underneath, but that hasn’t been the case in 2025 either.
• They aren’t breaking the league on third down. Without the big plays downfield, the Chiefs have survived in recent years by tormenting defenses on third down. Between 2022 and 2024, the Chiefs converted nearly 47% of third downs, second only to the Bills with the best rate in the NFL. They were the ninth-best offense by EPA per play on first and second down before leading the league there on third down.
• This year, Kansas City ranks 26th in third-down conversion percentage (34.6%). Obviously, that’s a small sample: we’re talking about just 26 third-down attempts, but it’s an indicator of how dependent the Chiefs have been on those conversions to sustain their offense. If you’re not making big plays on the ground or in the air, and you’re not getting short fields from a defense that hasn’t forced any turnovers, you need to move the chains and repeatedly pick up third downs to score. The Chiefs need to be among the league’s best third-down offenses for this style to work. They aren’t at the moment.
• They aren’t creating mismatches with their personnel groupings. One of the other ways the Chiefs thrived after trading Hill was by leaning into more 12 and 13 personnel, surrounding Kelce with Noah Gray and other tight ends. Those groupings force some teams to play their base defenses (with four defensive linemen on the field) or try to defend bigger, more physical players with cornerbacks and safeties. Both have been wins for the Chiefs, who loved to see Kelce matched up against a slow linebacker or an undersized cornerback for the last decade.

There may not be much juice left to squeeze from that particular solution, especially with Kelce turning 36 in a few weeks. The Chiefs have recorded a 35% success rate in 12 or 13 personnel this season, down from 50% last season. Again, we’re talking about a small sample size of 40 plays, but the Chiefs have been significantly more effective working out of 11 personnel (48% success rate) even without Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder injury) for most of the season. When the Chiefs don’t have any of those things working, there’s one element that holds them up on offense: Mahomes’ scrambles. That was evident in the first half against the Eagles, when it seemed like the entire offense was based on him jumping at the first sign of an open running lane. In Week 2, Mahomes ran for 66 yards, his second-highest total as a professional, with 60 of those yards coming before halftime. Mahomes’ single-game record is 69 yards in that fateful 42-36 playoff victory over the Bills; leaning more on his legs has typically been a postseason tactic for the Chiefs. It’s not going to be a sustainable way to run this offense, but it could push defenses to play more zone and less man against a disappointing receiving group. If Mahomes takes a hit while running and has to leave the game or lose time, there will be no turning back for this offense. How are things? The Chiefs aren’t desperate, but they need to find something to base the offense on. Will they go under center and lean into more gap runs instead of the RPO and shotgun running attack they’ve used with Mahomes? Can they use the threat of his scrambles to lean into their zone beaters? Will Mahomes start connecting on enough deep throws to get safeties sitting in a different zip code again? Or will we have four more weeks of this before Rice and Worthy return and the Chiefs go back to their 2024 offensive game plan? The Chiefs have a difficult schedule ahead with games against the Ravens, Lions, Commanders, and Bills before their Week 10 bye. They are not going to win many of them playing as they have for two weeks. But I would still take them to make the playoffs.

Regarding the Super Bowl? Well, three teams have started 0-2 and won a Lombardi Trophy, although they changed significantly after their slow starts. The 1991 Cowboys didn’t have Emmitt Smith, who was out for the first two games of the season before returning in Week 3. The 2001 Patriots gave Tom Brady his first career start in Week 3. And the 2007 Giants were a disgrace on defense, allowing 80 points in the first two weeks and 17 more in the first half of Week 3 before throwing a comeback victory over Washington and looking much more capable the rest of the way.

Do the Chiefs have it in them? I think so, but this isn’t a great team suffering bad luck. It’s an average team, maybe below average, that has faced two clearly better opponents. The Chiefs have to be someone else to be themselves again.

2. Houston Texans

Chances of advancing to the postseason: 24.3%

Texans fans will undoubtedly find it frustrating that their team is 0-2. Beyond the understandable preseason expectations after winning the AFC South and wildcard games in consecutive seasons, the Texans were a couple of plays away from starting 2-0. Running back Dare Ogunbowale fumbled in the red zone on a potential game-winning touchdown drive in Week 1, handing the ball to the Rams for a 14-9 victory. On Monday night, they only needed an unblocked Henry To’oTo’o to take down or even slow down Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield on a fourth-and-10. Mayfield escaped, ran for a first down, and led the Bucs down the field for a touchdown and a one-point victory. It’s one thing to lose two close games to a couple of playoff teams from last season. It’s another to play the way the Texans have while doing so. After dedicating all their resources this offseason to fixing their most obvious weaknesses, they look as if absolutely nothing has changed. Even with a new offensive coordinator and new players, the Texans still can’t solve the pressure and protect quarterback C.J. Stroud. Nick Caserio rebuilt the line during the offseason, moving Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, and Shaq Mason while importing a whole line of potential new starters: tackles Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, and Aireontae Ersery, guards Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram, and center Jake Andrews. With the Texans holding onto several of their own younger linemen, there was suddenly significant competition at every position up front in camp. But the early returns on those moves aren’t promising. Brown was sent to the practice squad. Andrews injured his ankle in the first game and missed the Bucs game. Robinson, signed to a one-year deal for $12 million, was benched after the Week 1 loss and didn’t play an offensive snap in Week 2. Tomlinson looked physically overmatched and was literally thrown to the ground by Greg Gaines before a sack on Monday night. He wasn’t alone, as Ogunbowale was run over by Bucs safety Tykee Smith on a slot blitz for another sack. It’s hard to play quarterback when your blockers are on the ground. Ersery has done his best, but it’s difficult to imagine that the best practices for any second-round rookie would start as a right tackle in Week 1 before suddenly moving to left tackle in Week 2. He has given up a sack and three quick pressures in two games, which is reasonable. But Tytus Howard couldn’t consistently handle Haason Reddick at right tackle, leaving the Texans without a reliable lineman around whom to build their pass protection. There are still structural problems as well. As Geoff Schwartz pointed out after Week 1, the Rams were able to overload the Texans and bring down Stroud on a play where he didn’t change the protection after seeing the Rams’ front. That was a problem that also came up for the Texans on a key fourth down against the Chiefs in last season’s playoffs. Stroud needs to be able to change that protection or have an answer to get the ball out quickly if he ends up being hot towards one side, making the free rusher his responsibility. The Bucs used some of Todd Bowles’ classic tricks to create structural pressure on Stroud. A late stem from the Buccaneers created an awkward block for Harrison Bryant, and Stroud was forced out of the pocket by slot pressure. Bowles created a catch with what is colloquially known as a “coffee house” trick, where a defender pretends to be retreating in coverage for a step or two, convincing the linemen that he is not part of the protection call, before jumping back into the run. He created possibly the easiest catch of Lavonte David’s career.

One way to stay out of those exotic pressures and prevent teams from clinging to Stroud is to run the ball. But after the Texans struggled to do so in 2024, they haven’t been much better in 2025. Nick Chubb scored a 25-yard touchdown in the final quarter to give the Texans a brief lead, but his previous 11 carries had gone for a total of 18 yards.

For two weeks, only 29% of Houston’s designed runs on first and second down have been successful in terms of keeping the offense on schedule, which ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only the Cardinals. (If you’re a Cardinals fan wondering why the offense hasn’t lived up to expectations for two weeks, here’s your answer). As a result, the Texans are again forcing Stroud to live in second and long and third and long. On 16 of the Texans’ 18 drives this season, Stroud has faced a second or third down with nine or more yards to go. Over 48% of his second and third down plays have come with 9 or more yards to go for a first down, a figure surpassed only by the Bears. The other concern for the Texans should be that the AFC South suddenly looks more threatening than last year, when Houston went 5-1 in their division. The Colts are 2-0. The Jags were one fourth-down stop away from joining them. I’m certainly not writing off the Texans: they still have star defenses and Stroud. Maybe the offensive line will come together in the coming weeks and the Texans will find some kind of running game. Last season, however, the Texans were a league-average team that won 10 games because they faced a below-average schedule and went 6-3 in one-score games. That formula wasn’t going to be sustainable in 2025. And right now, while they’re probably unlucky to start 0-2, the Texans certainly look a lot like the frustrating team we saw last season. 3. Chicago Bears

Chances of advancing to the postseason: 6.3%

Well, it was fun for a quarter or two. The Ben Johnson era arrived with a bang on Monday night in Week 1, as the Bears marched down the field for a touchdown on the opening drive. However, despite maintaining a win expectancy above 91% entering the final quarter, the Bears squandered their lead against the Vikings before being mercilessly stomped by the Lions in Week 2. What seemed like the dawn of a new era quickly faded into the same old Bears. Of course, Johnson’s hiring was simultaneously about improving the team and fixing the frustrating Caleb Williams, the number 1 pick of 2024, who had burned a coach and two coordinators in his first year with the organization. The goal of every team is to win as often as possible, but from a fan’s perspective, a successful debut season for Johnson was going to be more about making Williams work than Chicago’s win-loss record at the end of the season. So, how is Williams doing? Two things can be true. On the one hand, Williams is not “fixed” nor is he a finished product like the one the Bears saw on the opening drive of the season. He has a rate of off-target throws of 26.6% this season, almost double the league average (14.2%). Williams has the third-highest expected completion percentage (70.1%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats) and yet is only completing 61.5% of his throws; the only quarterback who is not meeting his expected completion percentage by a larger margin this season is Patrick Mahomes. Williams has still been prone to the occasional hero-ball play, particularly when the Bears have fallen behind and he’s been under pressure. Some of the throws he produces in those moments aren’t compatible with surviving as an NFL quarterback, even if they don’t always lead to interceptions. Williams’ second-and-32 interception against the Lions was probably the right time to throw a prayer, but it would be nice if that pass were at least within the reach of an open Bears receiver. Simultaneously, this is a much better quarterback than the one we saw rage against the light last year. Williams has a QBR of 57.5, more than 14 points above where he finished the 2024 season. Part of that is a product of his solid work as a scrambler, but even if we leave that out of the equation, Williams’ QBR on passes and catches has still gone up 10 points. Johnson said after the Lions game that he saw weekly growth from Williams as a passer, and I agree. Williams is clearly growing more comfortable working through his progressions within the pocket and getting to the right spot with the ball more consistently. He played with more anticipation and made accurate throws to help create several explosive plays, especially on a well-thrown double move to Rome Odunze for 37 yards. Ted Nguyen of The Athletic noted that Williams went outside of the play structure only four times during the game, a step in the right direction for a QB who lived outside of the structure to his detriment in 2024. Although Williams isn’t good enough at the moment to drag this team to the games weekly, he isn’t the problem with the Bears’ offense. The worrying thing is that the problems are more widespread. All Johnson had to do on Sunday was look to the other side of the field at a Lions team that destroyed the Bears on the ground. A week earlier, the same offense had been completely inept running the ball against the Packers, which stopped Jared Goff and the passing attack as a result. The Chicago run game has been practically non-existent for two weeks. D’Andre Swift and company are last in the league in EPA per designed run and 30th in success rate, ahead of only the Texans and Cardinals. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Swift isn’t a great fit for Johnson’s run game; remember that the Lions traded Swift during Johnson’s time with the team and had much more success running the ball with Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Swift has also been overwhelmed in pass protection. He’s a change-of-pace back forced to serve as the lead back because the Bears paid him as such before the 2024 season, when he signed before Derrick Henry even received the same average salary. The Bears didn’t make any significant additions to their backfield this offseason, so seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai has been Swift’s primary backup. Don’t be surprised if the Bears go and get someone who is a more effective runner between the tackles and a more stout pass blocker before the trade deadline. This offense isn’t going to thrive unless the running game is working. The offense as a whole is still figuring things out. As Yahoo’s Matt Harmon noted, it takes time for offenses with a lot of motion in new places to settle in without pre-snap penalties. The Bears are tied for the league lead with six false starts. The much-hyped new interior offensive line is still gelling, and when Johnson has had to keep things simple, teams have been able to exploit their weaknesses, such as when the Vikings got a free runner in the A gap.