Deep Dive into Second-Year Quarterbacks: Who Will Make the Leap?
Summer is a good time to evaluate the performance of last season’s rookies, and this time, we focus on the 2024 quarterback class. With five of the six players selected in the first round seeing action, expectations for their second year are high. Will Jayden Daniels be able to maintain or surpass his outstanding performance? What can we expect from Caleb Williams, now free from the Matt Eberflus era? And, what did Michael Penix Jr.’s first three starts reveal about his rise in Atlanta?
This class of quarterbacks, which includes Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and J.J. McCarthy, promises to be as impactful as the 2018 class, which gave us Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield. Williams, Daniels, Maye, and Nix proved to be long-term starters, and Penix and McCarthy have reason to believe in their future.
Next, we will thoroughly analyze each of these quarterbacks, answering the most important questions about their development and potential.
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Caleb Williams: Is It Time to Worry?
To understand Caleb Williams, it’s crucial to remember his impressive skills. A third-and-14 throw against the Lions demonstrates his ability to make difficult throws.
This type of throws are difficult to teach, but Williams demonstrates a great ability to generate speed and precision in complicated situations. It is important to remember that many rookie quarterbacks have had difficult initial seasons, with varied results in their careers.
In 2024, Williams ranked 33rd in success rate, 30th in EPA per play, and 32nd in adjusted net yards per attempt. His incompletion rate was 21%, and his 10% sack rate was also concerning.
However, compared to other rookie seasons, Williams isn’t doing too badly. Among the 46 first-round rookie quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts in the last 20 years, Williams ranked below average in some metrics, but his sack rate and incompletion rate were near average.
It’s easy to feel concern after Williams’ rookie season, but it’s important to remain calm. Comparing his performance to Bryce Young’s in 2023, similarities can be found. Both suffered many sacks and avoided long throws. However, Williams shows the ability to make throws that Young can’t.
Williams has the ability to make incredible passes, suggesting great potential for improvement in his second year. With an improved offensive line and a competent coaching staff, Williams could make a significant leap. The key for Williams will be to improve his completion rate.
If Williams manages to reduce his turnover rate, he should improve his overall performance and demonstrate the potential that led him to be the first draft pick.
Jayden Daniels: What Can We Expect?
Jayden Daniels’ rookie season was impressive. He ranked third in success rate and sixth in EPA per play among rookie quarterbacks over the last 20 years. In addition, he set a rushing yards record for a rookie, with 891 yards.
One of Daniels’ best qualities is his agility in the pocket. His ability to evade defenders and convert plays is unique. Daniels is able to escape difficult situations and generate important plays.
Daniels’ intelligence in choosing when to run and when to pass is remarkable. His escape rate was high, but his ability to make quick and precise decisions under pressure is surprising for a rookie.
In pressure situations, Daniels proved to be an elite passer. He ranked among the best in yards per attempt, incompletion rate, and adjusted net yards per attempt. His ability to remain calm and make sound decisions under pressure is impressive.
An example of his intelligence in the game is the way he changed the protection on the line of scrimmage before the snap against the Buccaneers. Daniels identified an advantage for Terry McLaurin and adjusted the protection, demonstrating his maturity and ability to read the game.
Although there were factors that favored Daniels in his rookie season, such as success on fourth-down plays and deep passes, his talent and ability to make smart decisions suggest that his success could continue.
The key for Daniels will be to stay healthy and avoid injuries, which could affect his performance.
Drake Maye: Does He Need Help?
Drake Maye’s rookie season was affected by a poor offensive line. He had the worst offensive line among rookie quarterbacks, which hindered his development. Despite this, Maye proved to be an effective runner, with a high yards per carry rate and explosive plays.
Although Maye was efficient, his ability to generate explosive plays by pass was limited. His longest pass was 40 yards. The lack of a reliable receiver who could generate significant plays limited his potential.
Maye focused on short, quick passes, which limited his ability to generate yards. This is partly due to the lack of players with the ability to generate yards after the reception.
Maye makes quick decisions and has a great ability to improvise. An example is her ability to convert plays under pressure, demonstrating her talent and potential. Maye has the ability to be a good starter in the league.
Maye’s success will depend on the improvement of the offensive line and the incorporation of offensive players. The arrival of a new offensive coordinator and help on the offensive line could improve his performance.
Michael Penix Jr.: What Do We Really Know?
The first three starts of Michael Penix Jr. at the end of the 2024 season were mixed, as expected for a rookie. Young players usually improve significantly in their first 10 or 15 starts.
Penix showed great talent, with the ability to throw accurate and anticipatory passes. He also demonstrated his intelligence by identifying advantages and making quick decisions.
An example of this is his ability to identify an advantageous matchup for Bijan Robinson before the snap and quickly throw him the ball. Penix demonstrated a clear understanding of the game.
In his first start, Penix demonstrated his ability to read the defense and make quick decisions. His release time was fast, but his passes were not always short, instead seeking one-on-one opportunities downfield.
The selection of throws will be key for Penix in his second year. His ability to make deep throws and with anticipation suggests great potential.
