Thunder vs Pacers: Haliburton doubtful, will Indiana force a Game 7?

Thunder One Step Away From Championship After Dominating Pacers in Game 5

The 2025 NBA Finals series is one step away from crowning a new champion after an intense battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. With the series tied 2-2, the Thunder prevailed at home with stellar performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 points) and Jalen Williams (40 points). Now leading 3-2, only one more victory separates the Thunder from the Larry O’Brien trophy. The Pacers’ main concern is the condition of their star, Tyrese Haliburton, who is suffering from a right calf strain. He will undergo an MRI. In Game 5, Haliburton scored only four points, his lowest in the playoffs, along with six assists and seven rebounds. We analyze the key points ahead of the potentially decisive Game 6 in Indianapolis on Thursday.

How worried should the Pacers be about Haliburton?

Tim MacMahon: 10. It’s difficult to see the Pacers generating many points against the league’s best defense without a fully fit Haliburton. It’s not all about scoring for him, but the Pacers are a different team when Haliburton is in attack mode.

Tim MacMahon

Jamal Collier: 10. Scoring doesn’t tell the whole story with Haliburton, but he is the engine that makes this team run. He was limited on Monday, unable to get past any defender, and spent most of the time standing in the corners while others initiated the offense. If he can’t be significantly more effective than he was in Game 5, the Pacers’ path to victory becomes extremely difficult.

Jamal Collier

Chris Herring: A solid 8, and maybe even that’s too low. But it’s not the performance in Game 5 that worries me; it’s how injured he must be to have played so poorly at such a moment. If Haliburton’s mobility is diminished in Game 6 as a result of his calf injury, it’s hugely concerning.

Tim Bontemps: 10. Indiana’s season ends with one more loss, and it seems the Pacers’ engine will be at a good percentage below 100 percent. There’s nothing more worrying than that.

Tim Bontemps

Zach Kram: 10. This was not a bad Game 5 simply because of a bad shooting streak or Luguentz Dort’s defense. It was a bad game due to a calf injury, which does not usually disappear quickly and which hampered Haliburton’s movement during Monday’s game.

Zach Kram

Tyrese Haliburton, left, had six drives in Game 5, his fewest in a game this postseason and tied for the second fewest in a playoff game in his career, according to GeniusIQ tracking.

How can the Pacers force a Game 7?

Herring: If Haliburton isn’t at his best, it becomes fair to wonder if Rick Carlisle would be better off using McConnell as the team’s primary point guard for an extended period and running the offense through Pascal Siakam more often. Even if Haliburton isn’t 100 percent, the Pacers give themselves a much better chance by simply taking better care of the ball.

Bontemps: They control a combination of the following statistics: bench scoring, points from turnovers, and 3-point shooting. If Indiana takes care of the ball, makes three-pointers, and surpasses Oklahoma City’s bench scoring, that will mean Indiana is dictating how the game unfolds. Limiting those things will greatly help Indiana win.

Collier: They control the pace in Game 6. Limiting turnovers and better health for Haliburton are essential to have a chance, but the Pacers will also need the game to be played at their pace. That means a much faster pace, running in transition after made baskets, limiting the Thunder’s free throws, and forcing them back into a half-court scenario.

Kram: They score at least 110 points. Indiana has a 14-0 record in the postseason when they reach that number, compared to 0-7 when they don’t. Indiana has relied on its electric offense to drive victories throughout the season, so it’s no surprise that the Pacers win when they can score and lose when they can’t.

MacMahon: They probably need a monstrous performance from the proven champion on the roster. Siakam needs to step up a couple of levels for the Pacers to force a Game 7.

How will the Thunder win the Finals?

Bontemps: If they make 3-pointers. If the Thunder can have a hot shooting game in Game 6, it’s hard to imagine they’ll have to play a Game 7, given the other advantages they’ll have in their favor, as well as Haliburton’s uncertain status.

Collier: If they’ve figured something out with Indiana’s defense. Their two stars grab all the headlines, but the Thunder had a better overall pace on offense in Game 5. Given that defense for Oklahoma City has been a constant, if this offensive flow is sustainable, the Thunder is well-positioned to go on the road and get a win.

MacMahon: If they impose their will. The Thunder had the opportunity to put the finishing touches on one of the best defensive seasons of recent times.

Herring: If Williams has another performance of more than 30 points. They will also need another performance loaded with Cason Wallace. And the Thunder must win the turnover battle by double digits again.Kram: If at least one bench player steps up on the road. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander were incredible in the previous two wins, but the Thunder also benefited from crucial contributions from Alex Caruso, who scored 20 points in Game 4, and Wallace and Aaron Wiggins, who combined for 25 points and seven three-pointers in Game 5.

Factor X in Game 6

Kram: Nembhard’s offense. The tenacious defender has quietly stepped up on offense as the playoffs have progressed. Especially with Haliburton’s health in doubt, the Pacers’ other starting point guard will need to deliver a big performance, on both ends.Collier: Indiana’s role players have been more comfortable at home throughout the series, and they will be important in Game 6. But, in a nutshell, if Haliburton can’t be close to his usual self in running the offense, I’m not sure there’s an X-factor that can make up the difference for Indiana.Herring: The amount of time it takes Indiana to get into its offense. If the Pacers can’t generate transition looks to take some pressure off Haliburton, the night will end with OKC in possession of the trophy.MacMahon: Will Oklahoma City get production from the bench? If Oklahoma City gets some scoring power from the bench, plan the parade in Bricktown.

Bontemps: Can Myles Turner get into the game? Especially with Haliburton’s role in doubt, Indiana could desperately need Turner to score more than 20 points and be the threat from beyond the arc that he was previously in the postseason.

Will the series go to Game 7?

Herring: False. I think there are too many questions about whether Haliburton will be himself physically to predict that the Pacers will beat the Thunder’s dominant defense again in Game 6.

Bontemps: False. I think we’ll see the Thunder win their first championship on Thursday night.

Collier: False. With Haliburton’s health in doubt and the Thunder rolling, it doesn’t feel that way.

MacMahon: I don’t make predictions about series I cover.

Kram: True, if Haliburton is reasonably healthy after two days of rest; false, if he is as limited as he seemed in Game 5.