Key Moves in the NBA: Extensions, Free Agents, and the Future of the Stars
A month before the 2025 NBA draft, the summer has witnessed significant moves. From the selections of Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper by the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, respectively, to the trades and free agency of figures like Kevin Durant, Desmond Bane, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Myles Turner, the offseason has been full of activity.
However, crucial decisions still need to be made. Below, we analyze the most relevant extensions and restricted free agency situations heading into the 2025 season, starting with a possible extension for a superstar on the league’s biggest stage.
Luka Dončić and his Extension with the Lakers?
The biggest unknown is the possible extension of Luka Dončić, who can sign a new contract with the Lakers on August 2nd. Arrived in Los Angeles six months ago in a trade that shook up the league, Dončić’s decision will have a significant impact.
If Dončić doesn’t extend his contract, he will become an unrestricted free agent in July of next year, which would make him the most coveted player on the market since Kawhi Leonard in 2019. The Lakers will seek to avoid at all costs a situation similar to the one the Toronto Raptors experienced when Leonard left for the LA Clippers.
If Dončić decides to extend, he could sign a four-year, $222 million contract, which would tie him to the Lakers until the end of the decade. Another viable financial option would be a short-term deal, possibly a three-year, $160 million extension with a player option for the 2028-29 season. This would potentially allow him to sign a contract in 2028 for 35% of the salary cap, which could be a five-year, $369 million contract.
“When you have a guy like Luka calling… asking for you, trying to see where you are, to see if you want to join something special he’s trying to create here,” said Marcus Smart.
Marcus Smart
Smart highlighted Dončić’s influence on the franchise, suggesting his commitment to the team.
Restricted Free Agents: What’s Next?
Restricted free agency is a complicated landscape, as demonstrated by the fact that 25 players signed rookie extensions in the last two years. Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes, Jonathan Kuminga, and Cam Thomas are still waiting to resolve their contract situations.
The lack of salary space in the league has affected these players. Most teams don’t have more than $14.1 million available. This forces these four restricted free agents to choose between committing to their contracts or continuing to wait.
Kuminga’s options are limited by the financial situation of the Golden State Warriors. Grimes faces a similar situation, as his future depends on the financial situation of the Philadelphia 76ers.
If an agreement is not reached, the option is to sign the one-year qualifying offer. Giddey ($11.1 million), Grimes ($8.5 million), Kuminga ($8 million), and Thomas ($6 million) have until October 1st to sign. If they don’t, the contract is not valid and they remain restricted free agents.
Signing the qualifying offer has its pros and cons. While they would become unrestricted free agents in 2026, they would lose Bird rights if traded to another team during the season.
Other Key Extension Decisions for Veterans
In addition to Dončić, several veterans face the possibility of extending their contracts. Kevin Durant is one of the most important names. After being traded to the Houston Rockets, Durant can sign a two-year extension for a maximum of $118 million. If he doesn’t, he will become an unrestricted free agent.
You also have to keep a close eye on De’Aaron Fox, who, like Dončić, was traded in February and will be eligible for a four-year, $222 million extension on August 3. Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks, with one year remaining on his contract, is also a case to consider.
Other interesting players include Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, P.J. Washington, Tyler Herro, Toumani Camara, and AJ Green.
Beginner Extensions: Who’s Next?
Four players from the 2022 draft, Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jalen Williams, have already signed long-term extensions. In the coming months, attention will focus on the remaining 17 players eligible to extend their contracts.
The recent history suggests that August and September will be quiet months in this regard. Of the 25 players who signed rookie extensions in the previous two offseasons, 16 did so in October, with 14 signing just before the start of the regular season.
Among the names to follow are Dyson Daniels, Christian Braun, Tari Eason, Bennedict Mathurin, Mark Williams, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, and Walker Kessler.
The Nuggets and Pacers have opened the door to extensions for Braun and Mathurin, respectively, following some moves on their rosters.
The Pacers have been aggressive in signing extensions in the last two seasons, and it seems they will continue this strategy.
Where Will Russell Westbrook Play?
Each year, prominent veterans become available in the final stages of free agency. This year is no exception. Ben Simmons, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Boucher, and Gary Payton II are still without a team. However, the most important name is Russell Westbrook, a former MVP.
After playing his first 11 seasons with the Thunder, Westbrook has played for five teams in the last six seasons: Rockets, Wizards, Lakers, Clippers, and Nuggets. After declining his player option for next season, Westbrook was expected to find a team, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Westbrook, despite being 37 years old, is still a talented player, averaging 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists last season. However, his need to have the ball and his struggles as a shooter make it difficult for him to fit into contending teams. Although it’s hard to imagine Westbrook outside the NBA, many veterans sign minimum contracts in August.
