NBA 2025-26 Season Analysis: Keys for Each Team
Although the NBA offseason is still underway, the 2025-26 campaign is beginning to take shape. With the television schedule taking form, the season schedule already revealed, and training camps just around the corner, it’s time to analyze the situation of the 30 teams. Here, a key statistic defines the position of each team heading into the season, along with crucial factors that could determine their performance in the coming months.Atlanta Hawks: 10 and 5
There are reasons for optimism in Atlanta, from the promising development of Dyson Daniels to the best offseason in the Eastern Conference. However, the Hawks’ aspirations to reach the conference finals again, five years after their surprising appearance in 2021, could depend on Jalen Johnson’s growth. Despite injuries, Johnson proved to be a complete player when he was on the court. Last season, Johnson averaged 10 rebounds and five assists per game, joining Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Domantas Sabonis as the only players to reach those figures. In the last four seasons, Joel Embiid is the only other player to achieve this. This doesn’t mean Johnson is an MVP candidate, but he could be closer to being an NBA star than many believe.Boston Celtics: 99.5%
The most notable absence for the Celtics will be Jayson Tatum, as he recovers from a ruptured Achilles tendon. In addition, Boston’s center rotation has undergone significant changes: last season, 99.5% of the center minutes, excluding residual playing time, went to Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet. Now, all three are gone. They will be replaced by a combination of Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Chris Boucher, and Xavier Tillman, who bring different strengths and playing styles, but are inferior to Horford, Porzingis, and Kornet. This is an important adjustment for Boston and their coach Joe Mazzulla, and another reason to doubt the Celtics’ ability to compete in the transition year without Tatum.Brooklyn Nets: 3
According to GeniusIQ data, six players averaged at least three minutes of possession in their games with Brooklyn last season. Five of those six – Dennis Schroder, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons, Killian Hayes, and Trendon Watford – are no longer with the organization; neither is Cameron Johnson, who ranked second on the team in points. Michael Porter Jr., the Nets’ new signing, should take on some of Johnson’s scoring responsibility, but he’s not a great initiator, which means there will be ball-handling opportunities for the Nets’ young backcourt. Adaptation problems are expected for the rookies, after Brooklyn selected five players in the first round, a record. In addition, Cam Thomas (if he re-signs with the Nets in restricted free agency) is expected to record an excessive usage rate, after registering 32.6% last season, just behind Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham in the league’s usage rankings.Charlotte Hornets: 35.9%
LaMelo Ball led the league with a 35.9% usage rate last season, the twenty-third highest mark in a single season in history. Generally, players with such a heavy workload are superstars who put up big numbers; 19 of the 22 players who surpassed LaMelo were part of an All-NBA team in the season in question. (The exceptions are DeMarcus Cousins the year he was traded from the Kings to the Pelicans, Jermaine O’Neal the year he was suspended after the brawl at the Palace, and Michael Jordan in his first season with the Wizards). But even if Ball had played enough games to be considered for All-NBA, he wouldn’t have come close. His PER was the worst for any player with a 35% usage rate in NBA history. Considering his frequent absences due to injury, it’s unclear whether Ball is still a franchise player around whom the Hornets should build, or rather a ball-dominant player who doesn’t win games.Chicago Bulls: 164
The Bulls have been the personification of mediocrity in the NBA for years, and they have the record to prove it. In the last four seasons, since they added DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso to start a new era for the franchise, the Bulls have a record of 164-164. And although DeRozan, Ball, Caruso, and Zach LaVine are no longer on the roster, they still show no signs of embarking on a true rebuild, they sought players in trades for Ball and Caruso instead of choosing in the draft, which means they are destined to finish near .500 in 2025-26.Cleveland Cavaliers: 42%
In three seasons with Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers have a regular season record of 163-83 (66% win rate), which is the third best in the NBA in that period. But in the playoffs, they have a record of only 11-15 (42%). Injuries have played a significant role, as Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have missed at least one playoff game in that span. But Cleveland hasn’t even come close in any of their playoff losses, falling in five games in each of the last three years. After a 64-18 performance last season, many more wins are expected in Cleveland’s regular season in 2025-26. But the Cavaliers have reached the same point as the Milwaukee Bucks at the beginning of the decade: no matter how impressive they look in the regular season, because they will have to wait until the playoffs to prove that something is different this year.Dallas Mavericks: 5
For the Mavericks to take advantage of their competitive window before Kyrie Irving (33 years old) and Anthony Davis (32 years old) reach their 30s, they will primarily need Irving to recover from a left ACL surgery this year. Only slightly secondary, however, is the need for Cooper Flagg, the number 1 pick, 18 years old on opening day, to be an immediate high-impact contributor. Flagg is one of the best NBA prospects in decades, so he certainly has that potential. But it’s a difficult task for any player with his age and experience to contribute to winning basketball, regardless of his talent. Only five teenagers have been regular starters on the perimeter for a team that made the playoffs according to Stathead: Jayson Tatum, Luol Deng, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, and Stephon Marbury. Only Tatum has done it in the last two decades.Denver Nuggets: 7
There’s a fun statistic on Basketball Reference called “MVP award shares”, which measures the percentage of possible votes a player received, and then sums the figure for each season. In other words, it rewards players who not only win the MVP, but do so decisively and end up at the top of the voting year after year. With three resounding MVP victories and two second places in the last five seasons, Nikola Jokic is rapidly climbing this ranking. With his second place in 2024-25, he moved to seventh place in the history of MVP award shares, surpassing Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With a similar performance in 2025-26, he would surpass Bill Russell and Magic Johnson. With two more top-level seasons, he could surpass Larry Bird and even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to move into third place of all time, only behind LeBron James and Michael Jordan. There’s a lot at stake for Denver as a team this season, as the Nuggets try to win another title after a solid summer. But there’s also a lot at stake for Jokic individually, as he continues to defend his position as one of the best players in NBA history.Detroit Pistons: 2
Even when the Pistons made a leap last season, going from 14 wins (the worst in the league) to 44 wins and a tough playoff loss, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren only played together in two games for five minutes. Due to various injuries and rotation decisions, Detroit’s four most important pillars, all 23 or younger, essentially spent an entire season without sharing the court. Add Ron Holland, the number 5 pick, and the quintet of recent lottery picks never played together. So, even when Detroit makes some substitutions in the veteran part of its rotation in 2025-26 (Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dennis Schroder out; Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson in), there’s still a lot for the Pistons to discover about their long-term core. Is Ivey’s improvement in three-pointers in a small sample real? Can Ivey and Thompson help alleviate some of Cunningham’s heavy offensive load? Where does Holland fit after a quiet rookie campaign?Golden State Warriors: 47%
The Warriors’ problem for most of last season was that their offense completely collapsed when Stephen Curry rested. Golden State scored only 104.2 points per 100 possessions when they had neither Curry nor Jimmy Butler III, according to Cleaning the Glass. That figure ranked in the 5th percentile of all lineups across the league. In comparison, Golden State reached 120.1 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile) with Curry. However, Butler’s presence solved that problem after the trade deadline. The Warriors had a perfectly respectable offensive rating of 113.9 when Butler took the court without Curry, ranking in the 47th percentile. The average is fine in those circumstances, because the Warriors are so great with Curry that they only need to maintain service without him. Add a phenomenal defense, in the 99th percentile, in those Butler minutes without Curry, and it’s easy to see why Golden State had a 23-8 record with the third-best net rating in the league after Butler first put on the uniform. Of course, the Warriors’ offense collapsed in the second round of the playoffs when Curry got injured. But Butler was also hurt at that time.Houston Rockets: 1.21
The Rockets were an excellent team in almost every aspect last season, but one weakness cost them dearly. Houston ranked 22nd in half-court scoring efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass, which was the worst of any playoff team, and proved particularly unable to get baskets in individual matchups. Houston scored 0.91 points per isolation play, according to GeniusIQ, in both the regular and postseason; only the Jazz, Wizards, and Raptors scored at a worse rate from their isolations. None of Houston’s perimeter players could consistently create good looks against set defenders, as Fred VanVleet (15th percentile among players with at least 100 isos), Amen Thompson (15th percentile), and Jalen Green (12th percentile) struggled. Kevin Durant enters, who is not only better than the previous Rockets options, but led the entire league in isolation efficiency last season, with 1.21 points per iso. The Rockets had a weakness, and they solved it. With Durant taking control of the offense in the final game scenarios, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the West.Indiana Pacers: 13.6
The Pacers’ main job this season is to position themselves to return to contention when Tyrese Haliburton returns from a right Achilles tendon rupture in 2026-27. There are two main steps to achieve this before then. First, they need to find Myles Turner’s long-term replacement at center, either Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff, or an external candidate. Second, they need to determine which of the team’s young reserves, recently selected in the first round (Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, and Jarace Walker), is a long-term player. Mathurin, a former No. 6 pick, is the most intriguing option because his downhill scoring is unique on Indiana’s roster. But Mathurin hasn’t shown much development since an impressive rookie season. Both his traditional and advanced stats have been very similar in his first three NBA seasons; for example, his PER (a stat where 15 is average) has barely budged from 13.1 as a rookie to 13.0 as a sophomore and to 13.6 in his third year. If Mathurin can spread his wings in Haliburton’s absence, rather than remain on this statistical plateau, it would be a boon for the Pacers in the long run.LA Clippers: 14.5
The Clippers were dominant for long periods last season, as long as their stars were on the court. Things changed when they rested. The Clippers were 14.5 points per 100 possessions better with center Ivica Zubac on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass, which was the largest margin for any player with at least 1,000 minutes (behind Nikola Jokic and Dorian Finney-Smith). Kawhi Leonard’s on/off differential was 10.5 points, which placed him in ninth place. In other words, the Clippers needed to improve their bench, and they spent the summer working on that problem. They signed Brook Lopez, a perfect backup center for Zubac. They signed Bradley Beal and Chris Paul to cheap contracts to provide more playmaking in the backcourt. And they traded for John Collins, adding a new multi-positional dimension to the frontcourt between Zubac and Leonard. The Clippers are old and face intense competition at the top of the West, but they are a legitimate contender.Los Angeles Lakers: 4.4
With Luka Doncic and LeBron James on the roster, the Lakers have access to a theoretically unstoppable play; the picks between James and a talented guard have long forced mismatches and worked wonders. However, the Lakers didn’t run many pick-and-rolls between their two main creators after last season’s trade: In the regular season, James set 3.8 picks per 100 possessions for Doncic, according to GeniusIQ, while Doncic set 0.6 for James, for a total of 4.4 picks per 100 possessions. In comparison, James and Kyrie Irving set up 15.1 picks per 100 possessions for each other in their last two seasons together in Cleveland. James and Austin Reaves have set up 11.3 per 100 for each other in their shared tenure with the Lakers. To be fair, the Lakers were adapting to a novel situation on the fly last season, and the pick-and-roll rate of the star pairing increased dramatically in the playoffs, from 4.4 to 9.2 per 100 possessions (although that was almost all James setting up for Doncic, rather than the other way around). As expected, it produced many points, as the Lakers averaged more than 1.2 points per play when a Doncic-James pick-and-roll led directly to a shot, a foul, or a turnover. But they should use it much more in 2025-26 to make the most of this unique partnership.Memphis Grizzlies: 30.5%
The Grizzlies find themselves in a strange situation in their competitive timeline: they took a step back this summer by trading Desmond Bane, but still have a deep and balanced roster led by a pair of well-paid stars. But they are not going to make noise in the playoffs if Ja Morant can’t fix his shaky 3-point shot. In his last three seasons plagued by injuries and suspensions, Morant has only shot 30.5% from distance, which is the worst mark among all point guards in that span (minimum 500 attempts). In his entire career, Morant has made only 31.6% of his three-pointers, which is the second worst among active point guards (minimum 1,000 attempts); only Russell Westbrook is less accurate. Morant has other outstanding skills, but that simply isn’t a winning formula in the modern NBA obsessed with space.Miami Heat: 56%
Entering last season, there were reasons to expect Bam Adebayo’s anticipated offensive leap, as he had begun to shoot and make more three-pointers. But even as Adebayo showed significant improvement from distance (he scored 79 three-pointers last season, compared to only nine in his entire career before March 2024), he suffered a drop in the rest of his offensive production.
Adebayo’s true shooting percentage fell to a career-low 56%, marking his fourth consecutive decline from his career-high of 63% in 2020-21. He generated a career-worst free throw rate, missed the rim, and was one of the league’s least efficient post-up scorers. With Norman Powell, who led the NBA in points per touch last season, joining Tyler Herro, the Heat will have more offensive dynamism in the backcourt in 2025-26, but they need a comeback from Bam in the frontcourt to compete in the East.Milwaukee Bucks: 1
The Bucks controlled the NBA in 2021. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a two-time MVP and a newly awarded Finals MVP at the peak of his career at 26 years old. A strong complement of veterans surrounded him. And… they have won a total of one playoff series in four years since then:- 2021-22: Lost in the second round to the Celtics
- 2022-23: Lost in the first round to the Heat
- 2023-24: Lost in the first round to the Pacers
- 2024-25: Lost in the first round to the Pacers
Minnesota Timberwolves: 21
Anthony Edwards continues to climb in the rankings of the best NBA players. In 2022-23, he was part of his first All-Star team as a third-year player. In 2023-24, he was part of the second All-NBA team, finishing seventh in the voting. In 2024-25, he was part of the second All-NBA team again, but improved one position by finishing sixth in the voting. In a related note, the last 21 NBA champions have had a current or recent All-NBA first-team honoree; every title winner since the 2004 Pistons has needed a top-5 player to lead the way to the promised land. Edwards isn’t there yet. But at 24, he’s certainly capable of making that leap. After consecutive defeats in the conference finals, the Timberwolves have a lot to solve this season (replacing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, managing Mike Conley’s workload in his late 30s, incorporating the young players), but the most important development would be for Edwards to take another step forward. He needs to become a top-tier NBA player, which is the proven path for the best player on a champion team.New Orleans Pelicans: 2018
What is the best realistic scenario for New Orleans this season, with injury risks throughout the roster and Dejounte Murray already recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon? The Pelicans last finished in the top six in the Western Conference standings in 2018. That was so long ago that the players on the New Orleans roster included Tony Allen, Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Omer Asik, and Jameer Nelson; it might as well have been a different era of NBA basketball.
With apologies for piling on the Pelicans for the strangest trade of the summer, when they sent an unprotected 2026 first-round pick from themselves or the Bucks to Atlanta, in exchange for moving up from the 23rd to the 13th pick in the 2025 draft, there’s simply far more inconvenience than advantage in 2025-26. Even when Zion Williamson played last season, the Pelicans had a 10-20 record, a 27-win pace that would have given them a top-10 pick.
