Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot headlines UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro
UFC lightweight ex-champion Charles Oliveira will face ranked contender Mateusz Gamrot in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m. ET).
Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) is coming off a loss in June, in a failed attempt to regain the title, losing to Ilia Topuria by knockout in the first round. Brazilian Oliveira, who has yet to lose in five previous UFC fights in his home country, is ranked number 3 in the lightweight rankings.
Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC), currently ranked number 9, has won four of his last five fights, most recently by unanimous decision over Ludovit Klein in May.
MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith offer their predictions for the main event, while Alofoke Deportes betting expert Ian Parker adds information on the value bets available on the card.Din Thomas’ Analysis: “Oliveira is a great opponent for Gamrot. With Gamrot’s pace and grappling skills, this is a good matchup for him, because I don’t think he’s going to be submitted. So, he can impose his will, wrestle, stay out of trouble, and wear Oliveira down for a decision.”Anthony Smith’s Analysis: “I know that comparing common opponents doesn’t always work, but Gamrot beat Arman Tsarukyan and Oliveira lost to Tsarukyan, who is the better fighter. Oliveira has never been a guy who stops all takedowns, and Gamrot has great counter-grappling. Gamrot is able to grapple and stay out of trouble. If he couldn’t take Oliveira down, this would be a different story, because I think Gamrot would lose on the feet. But Oliveira won’t be able to stop Gamrot’s wrestling, and Gamrot will stay away from submission attempts and simply outgrapple Oliveira.”Betting Analysis:Parker: Gamrot to win (-105) By stepping up on short notice, Gamrot is getting a career-altering opportunity against Oliveira in a Fight Night main event. Gamrot has the wrestling and pace to stifle and frustrate Oliveira, if he can get the fight to the ground early and often. Standing, Oliveira is the better striker and has knockout power, but coming off a KO loss in June, I’m not sure his chin can take much more. Oliveira is a submission ace, but he doesn’t typically get submissions from his back, and that’s where I expect him to be for most of this fight. I’m betting on Gamrot to pull off an upset.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Men’s bantamweight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
Jackson to win (-300): If Jackson can secure a victory in Brazil over former UFC flyweight champion Figueiredo, this could be his coming-out party. Figueiredo is coming off a loss to Cory Sandhagen, during which he suffered a knee injury, so a fight against a young and hungry Jackson may not be the friendliest matchup for him upon his return. Expect Jackson to outstrike and use his speed to knock out Figueiredo.
Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
Diniz to win (-130): Unless Pinto can take Diniz down immediately and submit him or keep him on the ground for 15 minutes, it’s difficult to imagine he can beat Diniz in a striking battle. Diniz is not only the better striker, but he has fought top-level competition and won’t be surprised when his opponent tries to take him down early. Expect Diniz to defend takedowns early and keep the fight standing en route to his fourth UFC victory.
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Álvarez
Álvarez to win by KO/TKO: Álvarez will jump to the 170-pound division, and what an addition he could be. Álvarez is a complete fighter and an incredible striker with KO power. He faces the experienced veteran Luque in what should be a fun fight, for as long as it lasts. Luque will try to take Álvarez down, but I don’t see him having much success, which will force him to stand and trade blows in the hope of outlasting Álvarez. Ultimately, I think Álvarez’s pressure and power will be too much for Luque, and Álvarez will get the early finish.
