Who is “Mr. October” MLB 2025? Snell and Ohtani in the Postseason

Who is the “Mr. October” of this year? MLB Playoffs 2025 Analysis

Although the 2025 MLB playoffs begin in late September and could end in early November, the spirit of postseason baseball is always intensely felt in October. The key question is: Who will rise as the “Mr. October” of this season?

After the Division Series (LDS) round, the landscape has changed, with only three teams competing for the World Series title. The previous leader, Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers, no longer holds that position, but the overall performance of the Dodgers continues to dominate the standings. This analysis is based on the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric, a valuable tool for quantifying the narratives that emerge in the playoffs. Shohei Ohtani’s outstanding performance in the Dodgers’ Game 4 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and the continued dominance of the Los Angeles rotation, led by Blake Snell, could have a historic impact on this postseason. Let’s delve into the details.

Methodology

WPA evaluates the impact of each play in a game. Actions that increase a team’s chances of winning receive positive credit, while those that decrease them receive negative credit. In small samples, a single play can have a significant effect on WPA. Therefore, players who excel in close games are favored, as long as they perform in crucial moments. In this analysis, the WPA versions for batting and pitching are combined, based on the Baseball-Reference.com system. The inclusion of both aspects is largely due to Shohei Ohtani’s historical performance as a two-way player this postseason, which motivated us to analyze the WPA results more closely.

Top 5 Active Players

Players with the best WPAs on still-competing teams:

• Blake Snell, Dodgers | 1.203
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners | .800
• Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .708
• Andres Munoz, Mariners | .704
• Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .686

Blake Snell, with a WPA of .622 in his masterful Game 1 against Milwaukee, leads the table. Although Ohtani’s brilliance in the decisive game of the series came in a relatively one-sided match, Snell’s performance in eight innings, with a score of 90, occurred in a more tense context. His outstanding performance in a game with little margin for error elevates his WPA. Snell, with three outstanding starts in the playoffs, is already among the top 30 postseason pitchers in terms of WPA. If he maintains his .401 WPA per game average in the World Series, he could climb to the podium of the greats. Cal Raleigh, with his home run in the eighth inning that tied the game against Toronto, generated a significant impact on his WPA, placing him in a favorable position. Alex Vesia has had six consecutive scoreless outings, playing a key role in the Dodgers’ success. Andres Munoz has maintained an impeccable performance in six outings, with 7.1 innings without allowing runs or hits. Despite some setbacks, Roki Sasaki remains a key player in the postseason.

About Last Night

Shohei Ohtani was the standout figure of the night, although WPA doesn’t fully capture his impact in the Dodgers’ sweep of the Brewers in the National League Championship Series. Although his WPA of .349 is impressive, it doesn’t reflect the magnitude of his performance. Ohtani achieved something unprecedented by being the starting pitcher who hit three home runs in the same postseason game. His performance amazed everyone, demonstrating his ability to combine fast and powerful pitches with exceptional offense. In the first inning, Ohtani struck out William Contreras and, less than five minutes later, hit a 446-foot home run against Jose Quintana. Then, in the same game, he hit another 469-foot home run against Chad Patrick and one more against Trevor Megill. Ohtani achieved something unprecedented by being the starting pitcher who hit three home runs in the same postseason game. His ability to throw the 11 fastest balls of the game and hit the three most powerful hits solidifies him as a historical figure.

Top 10 Eliminated Players

Top ten WPA players on eliminated teams:

1. Will Vest, Detroit Tigers | .848
2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609
3. Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591
4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579
5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482
6. Keider Montero, Tigers | .441
7. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | .362
8. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies | .349
9. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348
10. Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314

Ohtani: Tracking His Progress

Ohtani’s progress in the WPA:

• Batting WPA: -.062
• Pitching WPA: .109
• Overall WPA: .047 (98th of 284 players this postseason)

Ohtani climbed from 277th to 98th on Friday. We expect to see two Ohtani starts in the World Series.

The WPA Pantheon

Top 10 postseason WPAs in a single season since 1903:

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908
2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892
3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704
5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646
6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582
7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545
8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522
9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443
10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

Snell’s WPA at the end of the NLCS puts him near this select group. With two more starts in the World Series, he could challenge Freese for the “Mr. October” throne. Ohtani, for his part, could aspire to join a select group of players who have achieved significant WPAs in both batting and pitching in the same postseason. The story of the 2025 MLB playoffs is far from over, and the search for “Mr. October” continues with every pitch, every hit, and every defensive play.