Mr. October 2025: Who dominates the MLB playoffs? WPA analysis and Shohei Ohtani

Who is the “Mr. October” of this year? Analysis of MLB Statistics in the 2025 Playoffs

Although the 2025 MLB playoffs began in late September and could conclude in November, the excitement of postseason baseball is always felt in October. The key question is: Who will rise as the “Mr. October” of this year? After the Division Series (LDS) round, the landscape has changed drastically, with only three teams competing for the World Series title. The previous leader, Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers, no longer tops the list, but the Dodgers’ outstanding performance still dominates the rankings. To analyze this, we will rely on the metric of Added Win Probability (WPA), a valuable tool for quantifying the impact of players in key moments of the postseason. Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented performance in the Dodgers’ Game 4 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, along with the continued dominance of L.A.’s rotation, led by Blake Snell, could have a historic impact. Let’s delve into the details.

WPA Methodology

The WPA evaluates the impact of each play on the game. Actions that increase a team’s chances of winning add positive points, while those that decrease them subtract. In small samples, a single play can have a significant effect on the WPA. A grand slam in a game already decided has little impact, but the same home run in the eighth inning with the team losing by three runs can be crucial. This favors players who excel in close games. In this analysis, the WPA versions for batting and pitching are combined, based on the Baseball-Reference.com system. The integration of these statistics is especially relevant in 2025, the era of the universal designated hitter, thanks to Ohtani’s historical performance as a two-way player this postseason.

Top 5 in the Postseason

These are the players with the highest WPA on teams still in competition:

• Blake Snell, Dodgers: 1.203
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners: 0.800
• Alex Vesia, Dodgers: 0.708
• Andres Munoz, Mariners: 0.704
• Roki Sasaki, Dodgers: 0.686

Blake Snell leads with an impressive 1.203 WPA, highlighting his masterful performance in Game 1 against Milwaukee. His eight-inning shutout was crucial in a closely contested game. Snell has been instrumental in his three playoff starts and could move up in the rankings if he maintains his level in the World Series.Cal Raleigh, with a WPA of .800, has also had a standout postseason. His home run in the eighth inning against Toronto was a key moment that boosted his position in the standings.Alex Vesia and Andres Muñoz, both from the Dodgers and Mariners respectively, have played a crucial role in their teams’ successes, with consistent performances in key moments.Roki Sasaki, despite a complicated start, has proven his worth and could climb positions if he continues to have good performances in decisive games.

Highlights of the day

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (.349)

Although WPA doesn’t fully capture the magnitude of Ohtani’s performance, his impact was undeniable. With three home runs, including one as a pitcher, Ohtani demonstrated historic versatility. His ability to pitch and bat at such a high level in the same game is unprecedented in baseball history. Ohtani achieved something that no one had done before: hitting three home runs and striking out 10 batters in the same game. This performance, which included throwing the 11 fastest fastballs of the game and recording the three most powerful hits, makes him a candidate for the best individual game in baseball history.

Top 10 in Eliminated Teams

Here are the outstanding players from the teams already eliminated:

• Will Vest, Detroit Tigers | .848
• Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609
• Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591
• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482
• Keider Montero, Tigers | .441
• Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | .362
• Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies | .349
• Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348
• Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314

Ohtani’s Tracking

Ohtani’s progress in the WPA is worth following:

In the National League Championship Series:

• Batting WPA: -.062
• Pitching WPA: .109
• Overall WPA: .047 (98th of 284 players this postseason)

Ohtani climbed from 277th to 98th after his impressive performance. He is expected to continue his impact in the World Series.

The WPA Pantheon

These are the historical WPA postseason leaders since 1903:

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908
2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892
3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704
5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646
6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582
7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545
8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522
9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443
10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

Snell, with his current performance, could aspire to a place on this list. Ohtani, although he still has work to do, has the opportunity to make his mark on baseball history.