MLB: Trade candidates, potential destinations, and analysis for the Deadline

MLB Trade Market: Trade Candidates

The Major League Baseball (MLB) trade market is an ever-evolving entity. To keep you up to date, we present a list of players with potential to be traded, compiled by experts and updated regularly. Updates will depend on player performance and team needs leading up to the July 31st trade deadline.

Some of the names on this list are considered unlikely trade candidates, but their trade potential is discussed. Others could join in the future if their team situation changes. This is the most up-to-date X-ray of the MLB trade market.

Contents

MLB Trade Market: Trade Candidates Players on the Radar More Names on the Radar

Note: Players are ranked according to their value to the new team if transferred, not by the probability of being traded.

Players on the Radar

Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox

Probability of change: 10% Bregman has been an elite hitter since his debut in 2016, but this year he has shown more power, with his highest isolated power since 2019. His power indicators (contact rate, maximum exit velocity, average launch angle, and hard-hit rate) are at career highs. His $40 million salary, and the possibility of opting for two more years at $40 million annually, significantly reduces the list of teams that could take on his contract. Best options: Chicago Cubs, Detroit, New York Yankees, New York Mets.

Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox

Probability of change: 25% Duran had a breakout season in 2024, with the seventh-best WAR in the majors (6.7). Although he outperformed his underlying metrics, these have regressed a bit this year. Currently, he is not performing according to those metrics, indicating bad luck. His actual talent is below that stellar 6.7 level, but better than the WAR of 2 (equivalent to a solid regular player) that he projects for this season. Best options: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins

Probability of change: 60% Alcantara was possibly the best baseball pitcher in 2022, winning the National League Cy Young unanimously. He had a more solid than spectacular performance in 2023 and missed 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. He has been making adjustments this season to refine his pitch mix and locations, hoping to regain his former glory. He seems to be on track to become a mid-rotation starter again (or better?) as he has recorded a 2.74 ERA in four June starts. The Marlins could retain him until the winter, when teams like Baltimore would be more inclined to acquire him and the last two years of his contract. Best options: Chicago Cubs, Houston, Boston, Toronto, Arizona, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Probability of change: 20% Peralta has been a constant presence for years, averaging 140 innings pitched with an effectiveness of 3.49 in the last four seasons. He is on track to achieve it again, with his frequently used fastball reaching an average speed of 94.9 mph this season, the highest of his career. He has a very cheap contract option of $8 million for 2026. Best options: Boston, Houston, Toronto, St. Louis, Arizona, San Diego, Baltimore.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Probability of change: 50% Suarez is in his final year of his contract and, despite turning 34 before the trade deadline, is near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he remains an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t move their players nearing free agency, Suarez could be traded because they have Jordan Lawlar excelling in Triple-A and ready to take over at third base. Best options: Detroit, Milwaukee, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, Seattle.

Seth Lugo, SP, Kansas City Royals

Probability of change: 40% Lugo has recorded ERAs of 3.00 or lower for five seasons, despite having below-average fastball velocity and good, but not excellent, strikeout rates. His ability to strand runners and limit hard contact is due in part to his nine different pitches. With a Nathan Eovaldi-type contract awaiting Lugo in free agency, Kansas City could opt to trade him, especially if Cole Ragans’ injured shoulder doesn’t improve. Best options: Chicago Cubs, Houston, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers.

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Probability of change: 30% Gallen was excellent during the last three seasons, but now, in his contract year, he is recording the worst numbers of his career in almost every category. His repertoire seems to be similar, but he is allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen said the team does not plan to get rid of players at the deadline, but if Arizona doesn’t get on a good streak, they could get a big return with all their free agents. Best options: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs.

Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Probability of change: 30% Kelly doesn’t have a great repertoire, recording the second-lowest average fastball velocity among pitchers with 90 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and varying velocity. He was a mainstay in the Diamondbacks’ 2023 World Series run, striking out 28 in 24 innings with an ERA of 2.25. Best options: Toronto, Boston, St. Louis, Houston, Chicago Cubs.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Probability of change: 30% Naylor is batting above .300 this year as a left-handed first baseman in his final contract year, and is on pace for about 20 home runs. Naylor faces left-handed pitchers more often than the next player on the list, but has not been particularly good against them. His on-base skills and lack of strikeouts make him an especially attractive acquisition candidate for postseason contenders. Best options: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Texas.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Probability of change: 85% O’Hearn is having a dream year, batting above .300 (and with the underlying metrics to back it up) along with being on pace for a career-high in home runs. He doesn’t face many left-handed pitchers, and his splits suggest he shouldn’t. Best options: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Texas.

Marcell Ozuna, DH, Atlanta Braves

Probability of change: 25% Ozuna is a pure designated hitter, playing two games in the field in 2023, his last regular defensive experience. He is also in his final year of his contract, but his power numbers have dropped a bit compared to his outstanding performance last year, with a .302 average and 39 home runs. His on-base percentage remains one of the highest among potential trade candidates. If someone leaves Atlanta, he is the most likely candidate, with free agency on the horizon. Best options: San Diego, Seattle, Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, Cleveland, Boston.

Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins

Probability of change: 40% Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his great repertoire, headed by a fastball that averages 100.2 mph and a splinker that sits at 97.5 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so it would require a large trade package. Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas.

Emmanuel Clase, RP, Cleveland Guardians

Probability of change: 20% Class was almost untouchable last season, but his numbers have regressed this season. He has issued more walks and gotten fewer ground balls, while allowing more damage on his cutter that averages 99.0 mph, in part due to more centered locations. Under contract for less than $30 million through 2028, he would bring a great return to Cleveland. Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas.

Felix Bautista, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Probability of change: 15% The “Mountain” has returned from Tommy John surgery and looks like before. A dominant June (8 innings, 1 hit, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA) has seen him induce more fly balls than allowed lines. He has two more years before free agency, and with the Orioles planning to compete from here on out, getting him will require more than most teams are willing to give. Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas.

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Probability of change: 70% Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in his final year of contract who contributes in several ways, but his power numbers are increasing this season and are the best since 2021. Best options: Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York Mets.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Probability of change: 60% McMahon is on pace to maintain his four-year home run streak (20), with above-average power, patience, and defense at third base, but a more mediocre contact rate and a baserunning value. He has two years and $32 million left on his contract after this season. Best options: New York Yankees, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle.

Pete Fairbanks, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Probability of change: 60% Fairbanks raised his level a bit this year, and now his 97.1 mph fastball has more cutting action and his slider has more depth, with both pitches playing a bit better than last season. He has a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should end up in the $10 million range. Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Arizona, Texas.

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Boston Red Sox

Probability of change: 35% You’ve probably heard this story before, but Chapman is left-handed and his superpower is that he throws very hard (averages just under 100 mph) and throws that fastball a lot (more than 75% of the time). He’s 37 years old and still dominant. Best options: New York Mets, Philadelphia, Detroit.

Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox

Probability of change: 90% Robert has had a lot of bad luck with the results in play this season, so that could change at any moment. He remains a strong defender and base runner. But the .185/.267/.305 line is horrible, and his trade value has plummeted in the last two seasons. He has a couple of $20 million club options per year that the acquiring team will hesitate to exercise in the absence of a change. Best options: San Diego, Philadelphia, Cleveland, New York Mets, San Francisco.

Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Probability of change: 45% Ward has an additional year of team control after this season, and his underlying numbers suggest he’s largely the same hitter as last year, when he posted a .246 average and 25 home runs. Best options: San Diego, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals

Probability of change: 30% Arenado is close to his career-best strikeout rate, and remains an above-average defender, but his power and patience are declining to career-worst levels. He remains a solid starter, but no longer a star, and the team that signs him would have to pay him as such. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause. Best options: New York Yankees, Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle.

Luis Severino, SP, Athletics

Probability of change: 40% Severino effectively utilizes his fastball/sinker/sweeper combination to limit damage, but because he has a mediocre strikeout rate, his potential is limited to a number 3/number 4 starter. Teams are intrigued by his away numbers, which are exceptional: 0.93 ERA in 38.2 innings across six starts without allowing home runs. They are not as intrigued by his contract, which has two more years for $47 million. Best options: Toronto, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore, New York Mets.

Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

Probability of change: 30% Exploration Report: Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in his final contract year now, but he has been notably worse this season. His repertoire and locations are quite similar, but the main difference is that his fastball is being hit hard, with a byproduct being the increase in his home run rate. Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Arizona, New York Yankees, Detroit.

Tyler Mahle, SP, Texas Rangers

Probability of change: 30% Mahle was thriving after returning from his Tommy John surgery in 2023, looking like a number three or four starter despite an ERA of 2.34 driven by very favorable strand rate and BABIP. But he is currently on the injured list with right shoulder fatigue. If he returns healthy, he will move up on this list. Best options: Toronto, San Diego, Boston, Chicago Cubs.

Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Probability of change: 75% Eflin is in his final contract year, and his effectiveness has risen from 3.59 last year to 5.46 this season, although his underlying numbers are still quite solid. He’s more of a number 4 starter type who eats innings now than he was during his breakout season in 2023, but there’s still some value for a contender. Best options: Houston, San Diego, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta.

Adolis Garcia, OF, Texas Rangers

Probability of change: 80% Garcia averaged 30 home runs from 2021 to 2024, but has declined since his best year in 2023. It’s worth noting that, according to xwOBA, he has been the 17th unluckiest hitter in the major leagues this year, and has another year of team control, so some teams could see the trade as a good value opportunity. Best options: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego, San Francisco.

Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels

Probability of change: 15% The number 10 pick in 2020 transitioned to the bullpen this season and has had some success, similar to other highly-recruited college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller, and Drew Pomeranz. He has three more years of control after this season, and his velocity has increased 1.5 mph in the new role, so this is where he could fit long-term, and trading him could generate a big return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter. Best options: New York Mets, Arizona, Baltimore, St. Louis, Minnesota, New York Yankees.

Walker Buehler, SP, Boston Red Sox

Probability of change: 35%

If the Red Sox give up on this year, Buehler will have many suitors despite his mediocre numbers this season. His postseason credentials are obvious, and his sinker and slider have worked well this season even though his fastball and curveball have been punished. Starter, reliever, whatever: October is Buehler’s time.

Best options: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Houston, Toronto, San Diego.

Nick Martinez, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Probability of change: 65% Martinez accepted the $21.05 million qualifying offer and could have a larger market this winter after pitching almost exclusively as a starter, although he will turn 35 later this season and now seems like a number four starter. Best options: Houston, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto.

Erick Fedde, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Probability of change: 50% Fedde’s strikeout and walk numbers have regressed from his successful 2024 season (after returning from a season in the KBO), but he is allowing less damage on batted balls to keep him in the rotation. Best options: San Diego, Toronto, Houston.